[Peakoil] [Fwd: [roeoz] ASPO talk yesterday]

[Alex Pollard]

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: [roeoz] ASPO talk yesterday
From:    "taz06" <tazm at optusnet.com.au>
Date:    Wed, March 2, 2011 22:05
To:      roeoz at yahoogroups.com
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Bruce = Bruce Robinson = convenor of ASPO Australia
---

For general interest, here's a commentary on Bruce's talk yesterday, at
the prestigious 6th Annual Excellence in OIl & Gas Conference
<http://www.beaconevents.com/2011/ExcellenceOilGas/en/Home/index.jsp>.

The conference was attended my many of the well-known Australian oil &
gas industry identities,  and some senior government officials.  Between
each of the major keynote speakers (of which Bruce was one), an
opportunity was given to CEO's of junior and emerging Australian public
exploration companies to present their wares.   Their not-so-hidden
agenda was to "talk up" their share price and attract more potential
investors.

Myself and Ian McPherson of ASPO were honoured to accept complimentary
registrations that Bruce made available.   Considering that the cost was
$1,795 per attendee, this was a generous gift.  It included the
opportunity to meet new & old contacts, to enjoy a fine lunch, and to
participate in the 6PM "networking drinks" in the grand hallway of the
Sydney Exhibition & Conference Centre, Darling Harbour.

Bruce's talk started at 3:30PM in the large auditorium.  His style of
delivery  - with regulation dark suit & tie - was appropriate for the
corporate culture that pervaded the conference.   Bruce had a lot to
cover and did not waste any time, as he warmed up to a rapid point by
point synopsis of the current peak oil world view.  There were plenty of
good "sound bites" and interesting new ways of seeing things (some drawn
from ASPO's Prof.  Aleklett, I suspect).  I believe the oil & gas
professionals would each take away several "new angles" or insights,
implanted into their consciousness, or if not, in their sub-conscious.

Bruce started with what he called his "oil radar".  The topical
reference to WikiLeaks seemed to grab people's attention.  He moved on
to make a point about the disparity in government messages in relation
to peak oil and climate change. Lines were thrown in on Katrina and the
GFC.  The message that preparedness should be mandatory, and good policy
for governments, given the information available, came through clearly.
Contrasted to that was a graph showing how ABARE has consistently - and
one wonders whether wilfully - put on its rose couloured glasses when
preparing oil price forecasts.  I would not be supprised if Bruce was
now that organisation's /bête noire/.

There were flashes on the screen showing leading media headlines from
the Financial Review, and opinion makers such as Richard Branson,
Bakhtiari and the US Joint Forces Command. These reinforced the view (no
doubt shared by many of the attendees) that peak oil thinking was now
well and truly mainstream.  The Noah story was a simple and persuasive
analogy that communicated Bruce's long standing public advocacy of
preparedness.  The political risk of high petrol prices was mentioned,
and the flashing on the big screen of media headlines "Peak oil: petrol
to hit $8 a litre" (the CSIRO study) was a good reminder.  Reputable
demand/supply charts were depicted behind the speaker, such as the
Macquarie Bank publication, to show that peak oil was now far removed
from fringe group thinking.  The downslide of the world's big fields was
presented  - North Sea, Canterell, Prudhoe Bay, and OECD, US, Norway.
Politically brave were his comments that quoted sources indicating that
the IEA was a cartel to counter OPEC and strongly influenced by the US,
to shore up Western economic confidence.

That takes us to only half way through the talk.   I have found you can
download the entire presentation from
http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Bruce/Robinson-Syd-Mar-2011-EOG.ppt.
It is worth taking a look at it and passing it on to others.

To summarise the last side, I wrote down "FEE".  Acronym for Frugality,
Efficiency and Equity.  That seems to sum up what I understand Bruce has
been advocating to government for a long time, in response to ASPO
thinking.  I feel intuitively that the problems of peak oil (and peak
everything) must be addressed, sooner or later, by more austerity, or
living happily with less consumption, like we used to in the 1950s.
Ironically, that value-laden message was not really consistent with the
values that came through from the junior CEOs, whose purpose and
direction was most certainly to win favour from shareholders by finding
more of the black gold.

Towards the end of the conference, during a wait for the next speaker,
the conference chairman decided to fill in the time by asking for a show
of hands about peak oil. I cannot remember the exact distribution
between those who believed the big rollover was starting to happen now,
and those who believed the downturn would happen sometime in the next
decade.  But it was clear to me that the majority in the room would not
have disputed much of what Bruce was presenting.

This show of hands on peak oil probably emulated the famous 2005 APPEA
conference where over half of the ~1200 assembled oil industry execs -
in a show of hands - believed peak oil was real and on the horizon.
When the chairman asked finally whether anyone in the room believed
world oil production would continue to grow forever, one brave exec put
up his hand.  This created (maybe intentionally) some amusement for the
audience.  My feeling, having spent 40 years in the oil and gas
industry, is that most intelligent executives are aware of the charts
that peak oil activists have read.  After all, the world's leading
industry periodical - the /Oil & Gas Journal - /had a major article by
Kenneth Deffeyes in 2002, Colin Campbell in 2003, and Samsam Bakhtiari
in 2004. The difference, though, may be one of attitude, not
knowledge.   To generalise, the oil company CEOs are busy having fun
with the thrill of the chase, making money and serving the market god.
Coupled to this is the corporate culture that seems to discourage
political controversy.  Therefore they may be happy to leave it to
others like Bruce to make political waves about a complex problem.  That
is why I thought Bruces lecture was significant and chosen wisely by the
conference organisers.  His talk was more than just about reinforcing
the common knowledge.  It was about changing attitudes.

-- geoff

On 18/02/2011 5:06 AM, Bruce Robinson wrote:
>
> Dear ASPO-Sydney et al,
>
> I have been invited to speak at the "Excellence in Oil&  Gas" conference
> 1-2nd March at Darling Harbour.www.ResourcefulEvents.com
>
> I am speaking at 3:20 on Tuesday 1st.  We have been offered some free
> passes, in case anyone is interested, but it is largely about investment in
> oil and gas, so not of much use to peak oil people.
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