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Bruce = Bruce Robinson = convenor of ASPO Australia<br>
---<br>
<br>
For general interest, here's a commentary on Bruce's talk yesterday,
at the prestigious <a href="http://www.beaconevents.com/2011/ExcellenceOilGas/en/Home/index.jsp">6th
Annual Excellence in OIl & Gas Conference</a>. <br>
<br>
The conference was attended my many of the well-known Australian oil
& gas industry identities, and some senior government
officials. Between each of the major keynote speakers (of which
Bruce was one), an opportunity was given to CEO's of junior and
emerging Australian public exploration companies to present their
wares. Their not-so-hidden agenda was to "talk up" their share
price and attract more potential investors. <br>
<br>
Myself and Ian McPherson of ASPO were honoured to accept
complimentary registrations that Bruce made available. Considering
that the cost was $1,795 per attendee, this was a generous gift. It
included the opportunity to meet new & old contacts, to enjoy a
fine lunch, and to participate in the 6PM "networking drinks" in the
grand hallway of the Sydney Exhibition & Conference Centre,
Darling Harbour. <br>
<br>
Bruce's talk started at 3:30PM in the large auditorium. His style
of delivery - with regulation dark suit & tie - was appropriate
for the corporate culture that pervaded the conference. Bruce had
a lot to cover and did not waste any time, as he warmed up to a
rapid point by point synopsis of the current peak oil world view.
There were plenty of good "sound bites" and interesting new ways of
seeing things (some drawn from ASPO's Prof. Aleklett, I suspect).
I believe the oil & gas professionals would each take away
several "new angles" or insights, implanted into their
consciousness, or if not, in their sub-conscious. <br>
<br>
Bruce started with what he called his "oil radar". The topical
reference to WikiLeaks seemed to grab people's attention. He moved
on to make a point about the disparity in government messages in
relation to peak oil and climate change. Lines were thrown in on
Katrina and the GFC. The message that preparedness should be
mandatory, and good policy for governments, given the information
available, came through clearly. Contrasted to that was a graph
showing how ABARE has consistently - and one wonders whether
wilfully - put on its rose couloured glasses when preparing oil
price forecasts. I would not be supprised if Bruce was now that
organisation's <i>bête noire</i>. <br>
<br>
There were flashes on the screen showing leading media headlines
from the Financial Review, and opinion makers such as Richard
Branson, Bakhtiari and the US Joint Forces Command. These reinforced
the view (no doubt shared by many of the attendees) that peak oil
thinking was now well and truly mainstream. The Noah story was a
simple and persuasive analogy that communicated Bruce's long
standing public advocacy of preparedness. The political risk of
high petrol prices was mentioned, and the flashing on the big screen
of media headlines "Peak oil: petrol to hit $8 a litre" (the CSIRO
study) was a good reminder. Reputable demand/supply charts were
depicted behind the speaker, such as the Macquarie Bank publication,
to show that peak oil was now far removed from fringe group
thinking. The downslide of the world's big fields was presented -
North Sea, Canterell, Prudhoe Bay, and OECD, US, Norway.
Politically brave were his comments that quoted sources indicating
that the IEA was a cartel to counter OPEC and strongly influenced by
the US, to shore up Western economic confidence. <br>
<br>
That takes us to only half way through the talk. I have found you
can download the entire presentation from
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Bruce/Robinson-Syd-Mar-2011-EOG.ppt">http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Bruce/Robinson-Syd-Mar-2011-EOG.ppt</a>.
It is worth taking a look at it and passing it on to others. <br>
<br>
To summarise the last side, I wrote down "FEE". Acronym for
Frugality, Efficiency and Equity. That seems to sum up what I
understand Bruce has been advocating to government for a long time,
in response to ASPO thinking. I feel intuitively that the problems
of peak oil (and peak everything) must be addressed, sooner or
later, by more austerity, or living happily with less consumption,
like we used to in the 1950s. Ironically, that value-laden message
was not really consistent with the values that came through from the
junior CEOs, whose purpose and direction was most certainly to win
favour from shareholders by finding more of the black gold. <br>
<br>
Towards the end of the conference, during a wait for the next
speaker, the conference chairman decided to fill in the time by
asking for a show of hands about peak oil. I cannot remember the
exact distribution between those who believed the big rollover was
starting to happen now, and those who believed the downturn would
happen sometime in the next decade. But it was clear to me that the
majority in the room would not have disputed much of what Bruce was
presenting. <br>
<br>
This show of hands on peak oil probably emulated the famous 2005
APPEA conference where over half of the ~1200 assembled oil industry
execs - in a show of hands - believed peak oil was real and on the
horizon. When the chairman asked finally whether anyone in the room
believed world oil production would continue to grow forever, one
brave exec put up his hand. This created (maybe intentionally) some
amusement for the audience. My feeling, having spent 40 years in
the oil and gas industry, is that most intelligent executives are
aware of the charts that peak oil activists have read. After all,
the world's leading industry periodical - the <i>Oil & Gas
Journal - </i>had a major article by Kenneth Deffeyes in 2002,
Colin Campbell in 2003, and Samsam Bakhtiari in 2004. The
difference, though, may be one of attitude, not knowledge. To
generalise, the oil company CEOs are busy having fun with the thrill
of the chase, making money and serving the market god. Coupled to
this is the corporate culture that seems to discourage political
controversy. Therefore they may be happy to leave it to others like
Bruce to make political waves about a complex problem. That is why
I thought Bruces lecture was significant and chosen wisely by the
conference organisers. His talk was more than just about
reinforcing the common knowledge. It was about changing attitudes.
<br>
<br>
-- geoff<br>
<br>
On 18/02/2011 5:06 AM, Bruce Robinson wrote:
<blockquote cite="mid:87FF20FF32644D518CAAEB8FD7ECBF2B@nexus.csiro.au" type="cite">
<pre wrap>
Dear ASPO-Sydney et al,
I have been invited to speak at the "Excellence in Oil & Gas" conference
1-2nd March at Darling Harbour. <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.ResourcefulEvents.com">www.ResourcefulEvents.com</a>
I am speaking at 3:20 on Tuesday 1st. We have been offered some free
passes, in case anyone is interested, but it is largely about investment in
oil and gas, so not of much use to peak oil people.
</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
<br>
On 2/03/2011 9:25 PM, MikeS wrote:
<blockquote cite="mid:ikl5vj+v08v@eGroups.com" type="cite">
<span> </span>
<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
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