[Peakoil] letter to CT editor

[Jenny Goldie]

Sir/Madam

Would that I could share Tom Waring's confidence about future energy supplies (letters, CT, 30 June).

Petroleum geologists have explored the planet and pretty well know where there are remaining reserves. Basically, there were about two trillion barrels of accessible light oil and we have used up a trillion. Another trillion to go. Certainly, higher prices of crude will mean that it will be economic to drill for oil in inaccessible places and that will help maintain smoothness of supply in the short term. But a finite resource is a finite resource and this particular one will be gone in 40 years. 

OK, there is about as much of the heavier oils such as tar sands and oil shale, but the EROEI (energy returned over energy invested) is often less than one and these heavy oils are highly polluting to mine. They are a whole different kettle of fish from the easily extractable lighter oil that has fueled our industrialised society for a hundred years. 

I'm all for technology saving the day but, the problem is, these technological wonders may have been invented but they are not sufficiently on-line to stop economic disruption (some say 'economic meltdown'). Jeremy Legget in his book 'Half Gone' makes this very point: between 2008 and 2012, demand will severely exceed supply yet new technologies will not yet be there to tide us over to a post-oil world.

Jenny Goldie
256 Baroona Road
Michelago  NSW  2620
Ph: 02 6235 5488 (w) 02 6235 9190 (ah)
jgoldie at snowy.net.au
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