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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sir/Madam</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Would that I could share Tom Waring's confidence
about future energy supplies (letters, CT, 30 June).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Petroleum geologists have explored the planet and
pretty well know where there are remaining reserves. Basically, there were about
two trillion barrels of accessible light oil and we have used up a trillion.
Another trillion to go. Certainly, higher prices of crude will mean that it will
be economic to drill for oil in inaccessible places and that will help maintain
smoothness of supply in the short term. But a finite resource is a finite
resource and this particular one will be gone in 40 years. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>OK, there is about as much of the heavier oils such
as tar sands and oil shale, but the EROEI (energy returned over energy
invested) is often less than one and these heavy oils are highly polluting to
mine. They are a whole different kettle of fish from the easily extractable
lighter oil that has fueled our industrialised society for a hundred years.
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I'm all for technology saving the day but, the
problem is, these technological wonders may have been invented but they are not
sufficiently on-line to stop economic disruption (some say 'economic meltdown').
Jeremy Legget in his book 'Half Gone' makes this very point: between 2008 and
2012, demand will severely exceed supply yet new technologies will
not yet be there to tide us over to a post-oil world.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jenny Goldie<BR>256 Baroona Road<BR>Michelago
NSW 2620<BR>Ph: 02 6235 5488 (w) 02 6235 9190 (ah)<BR><A
href="mailto:jgoldie@snowy.net.au">jgoldie@snowy.net.au</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>