[Peakoil] Tom Waring

Fri Jun 30 19:57:48 EST 2006

I think you'll find Tom Waring retired a few years ago.
--------------------------------------------
Keith Thomas
www.evfit.com
--------------------------------------------
On 30/06/2006, at 3:38 PM, Shane S wrote:

> Hi guys
>
> I just thought to see who Tom Waring is.
>
> http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s55703.htm
>
> "According to Tom Waring, who manages Minerals Research at the  
> Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics, most of  
> Australia's gold is being sold for well above the spot price as it  
> is."
>
> He brings up so many unsupported assertions it is going to be  
> difficult to address them all in any substantial way.
>
> Perhaps it would be best to focus on just three things?
>
> 1. The spectacular decline rates of north sea fields (~10% per year)  
> as a result of "advanced extraction technology".
>
> 2. The well established decline in Australian production. Regardless  
> of what happens elsewhere Australia is destined to become more  
> vulnerable to oil dependency.
>
> 3. Does Tom seriously believe that the middle east or central africa  
> could become stable "tomorrow"?
>
> 4. High oil prices are already reducing car use. Public transport  
> systems in Australia are experiencing sharply increased patronage.  
> Rather than filling our already gridlocked cities with hydrogen cars  
> for every man, woman and child we should be investing in more  
> efficient public transport alternatives.
>
> Ill be happy to draft this up and send it off if no-one has any  
> factual objections
>
> Shane
>
>> From: "Jenny Goldie" <jgoldie at snowy.net.au>
>> To: "ACT Peak Oil discussion Oil discussion" <peakoil at act-peakoil.org>
>> Subject: [Peakoil] feel free to reply!
>> Date: Fri, 30 Jun 2006 13:58:40 +1000
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>>
>> from today's letters pages in the CT:
>>
>> Oil pessimists
>>
>> Jenny Goldie worries the world is almost out of oil, fearing it'll  
>> get really expensive soon. Antony Barry is concerned Australia won't  
>> be able to import crude and that Canberra will be among the hardest  
>> hit (Letters, June 28). They're pessimists.
>>
>> There are reasons why the oil price could fall significantly. And  
>> anyway, high crude prices won't stop car use.
>>
>> In addition to sustained, strong global (especially Chinese/Indian)  
>> demand, oil's high price includes premiums for confrontation with  
>> Iran, chaos in Iraq and instability in several other supply  
>> countries. Any of that could change tomorrow.
>>
>> For example, sharemarkets are jittery right now about a possible  
>> US/global slowdown. Oil demand would follow. But it's on the supply  
>> side that the big responses can be predicted.
>>
>> Until fairly recently, oil was expected to keep on averaging around  
>> $US25-a-barrel ($A34). We are yet to see the impact of sustained  
>> $US50-plus-a-barrel ($A68) prices on global production.
>>
>> In addition to rendering viable tar sands, shale,  
>> gas/coal-to-liquids, etc options, high prices have seen rapid  
>> application of technological advances in exploration and well  
>> recovery, every drilling rig in the world working and every Russian,  
>> Central Asian, deeper-water, smaller-field option being diligently  
>> investigated. Supply will rise substantially.
>>
>> Simultaneously, with increasing confidence that $50-oil is here to  
>> stay and reduced fuel security comes accelerated fuel substitution.
>>
>> Canberra's new cars will be much more fuel efficient. Increasing  
>> numbers will use electricity and hydrogen/fuel cells. All  
>> manufacturers have them ready now.
>>
>> Jenny, Antony and others will buy them. Canberra needs to plan the  
>> infrastructure for them.
>>
>> Tom Waring, Ainslie
>>
>>
>>
>
>
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