[Peakoil] Energy symposium last Friday

[Paul Pollard]

I spent most of last Friday hearing most of the speakers of an energy 
symposium at the ANU held as part of the Science Festival. 

Many of the speakers were the Australian leaders in their field, ranging over 
nuclear, transport, hot rocks, wind, etc. Overall it was very informative, 
recognising that speakers have their own issues to push.Presentation was 
powerpoint; no papers were issued.

Much of what was said was familiar to me and no doubt to many on the peak oil 
list. Following is a few points which particularly struck me, or were new, 
which I hope will make sense.

Graeme Pearman (was head of CSIRO atmosphere division). 
- Data from many ports round Australia now showing gradual rise in sea levels 
over a century, due not to ice melting but to expansion of sea waters. 
- 4th Assessment Report of IPCC is due in 2007.
- Generally accepted now that CO2 in atmosphere effectively lasts 80 years.
- Coal industry now recognises global warming problem and the need to change, 
and need guidance because they don't want to invest billions in technology 
that will in time be penalised.

Andy Rigg - Carbon capture and storage (CCS) (geosequestration) CRC
- The capture and compression part of the process is 70-90% of the cost of 
this approach, storage a lesser part.
- CO2 is held in tiny gaps in the rock, due to rock's porosity.
- A CCS cost of US$20 a tonne is looking feasible. (Comment: I think this 
depends on suitable sites for power stations, but on a rough calculation this 
would mean only about a 25% rise in the cost of generating coal based 
electricity in Australia, to say 5 cents a Kwh, so if it comes to pass this 
would make CCS with coal-fired power very greenhouse competitive).
- There is considerable experience with piping CO2 already.
- There are plenty of suitable geosequestration potential sites in Australia.
- See www.CO2CRC.com.au

Doon Wyborn  - Geodynamics - SA hot rocks developer.
- They are drilling down to 3.5-4 km, in their northern SA site.
- All of Australia's electricity grid requirements for 70 years could be 
provided from just this one area of hot rocks.
- If they drilled down to 6 km, this figure could be doubled.
- They have successfully further fractured the rock at 3.5 km with 
high-pressure water, a necessary step.
- In time improvements in drilling, to reach depths of 8 km, will enable 
geothermal energy to be tapped anywhere on earth. Their area is unique 
because it has heat in a geologically stable area at only 3.5 km. 
- They are looking to reducing Australia's emissions by 9% by 2030. (Comment: 
this seems to contradict his statement about providing all of our 
electricity, but perhaps it's due to gradualness of scaling up).

Aidan Byrne - ANU - nuclear
- Best to site nuclear power plants in Hunter Valley, Latrobe Valley because 
of existing electricity grid layout.

Mark Diesendorf - UNSW - wind power
- Capacity used in wind power over time is 20-40%, compared with 2-10% with 
hydro.
- Wind power is not 'intermittent' but variable, and can be managed in a grid, 
to competitively provide 20%. Above this point less economic.
- Currently wind power is cheaper than nuclear in Britain, US, and cheaper 
than gas in US.
- In Australia costs 7.5-8.5 cents Kwh (which Diesendorf claimed would be 
cheaper than coal with goesequestration (CCS).
- Wind needs a more distributed grid - current grid pricing discriminates 
against local, low transmission-cost energy, and subsidises large generators 
further away.  

David Lamb - Transport group CSIRO
- ABARE forecasts on oil production, consumption unrealistic - aren't 
reconciled.
- Big price increases in oil likely.
- There is no easy alternative to conventional oil in medium term, and outcome 
is likely to mean a mixture of transport answers, such as small electric 
cars, hydrogen for buses using CNG, electric bikes. (He said China was making 
electric bikes by the million).
- Australia needs future transport planning, which isn't happening at all at 
present.

Hugh Saddler - energy policy consultant.
- Present policies not encouraging a properly competitive energy technology 
market, taking greenhouse effects into account.
- Combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) (very efficient gas for electricity) 
without geosequestration was almost as efficient as coal-with- 
geosequestration in reducing Australia's emissions. 
- To fairly encourage alternative power, the electricity grid needs to be a 
web not as at present a set of lines radiating from coal fired power.
- China especially, and India, are outpacing Australia on new 
greenhouse-better energy technologies, contrary to Government claims about 
Australian leadership.