[Peakoil] Good news, if you're into solar

[POLLARD,Sandy]

Sometimes there is good news. I've been following the South African
developments, but wasn't aware of the Californian initiative.
 
Now we need to know where the limits are - in EROEI, environmental
implications of the process, and in reserves of the minerals involved.
There's an argument too that any 'disruptive technology' that leads to
more unsustainable growth is ultimately self-defeating as it brings the
next set of limits closer. Jevons paradox etc. In dollar terms at least,
a 4-5 times improvement factor makes it cheaper than medium-scale wind
power.
 
Years ago I was sitting on a hill in Byron Bay, looking out over all the
building surfaces, thinking we really need a solar active paint or
building material. This stuff seems to come close to that.
 
Two weeks ago I was looking out over the ocean in Queensland, thinking
that once we have a flexible, solar active surface, perhaps it could be
bonded to a piezo-electric substrate - and floated on mats on the water
surface. Hypothesis: sun and wave movement generate power during the
day, wave power only during the night. (Piezo-electric substances
generate electricity when flexed. They are used, for example, in
acoustic guitar pickups). Of course, the economics and EROEI may be
useless.
 
But as someone with about $15,000 worth of conventional solar panels on
his roof, at about 1000 watts capacity - the numbers quoted below are
exciting.      
 
Now we need to encourage development of 'breeder reactor' style
manufacturing processes that only use renewable energy inputs. Until
hydrogen becomes feasible (if ever!) - and ignoring wood gasification -
this may imply heavy duty electric vehicles and mining equipment.
 
Sandy Pollard 
 
http://www.energybulletin.net/19262.html
 

Solar cells change electricity distribution


by Dave Freeman and Jim Harding 

 

In separate announcements over the past few months, researchers at the
University of Johannesburg and at Nanosolar, a private company in Palo
Alto, have announced major breakthroughs in reducing the cost of solar
electric cells. While trade journals are abuzz with the news, analysis
of the potential implications has been sparse.

We approach this news as current and former public electric utility
executives, sympathetic with consumer and environmental concerns. South
Africa and California technologies rely on the same alloy -- called CIGS
(for copper-indium-gallium-selenide) -- deposited in an extremely thin
layer on a flexible surface. Both companies claim that the technology
reduces solar cell production costs by a factor of 4-5. That would bring
the cost to or below that of delivered electricity in a large fraction
of the world.

The California team is backed by a powerful team of private investors,
including Google's two founders and the insurance giant Swiss Re, among
others. It has announced plans to build a $100 million production
facility in the San Francisco Bay area that is slated to be operational
at 215 megawatts next year, and soon thereafter capable of producing 430
megawatts of cells annually.

What makes this particular news stand out? Cost, scale and financial
strength. The cost of the facility is about one-tenth that of recently
completed silicon cell facilities.

Second, Nanosolar is scaling up rapidly from pilot production to 430
megawatts, using a technology it equates to printing newspapers. That
implies both technical success and development of a highly automated
production process that captures important economies of scale. No one
builds that sort of industrial production facility in the Bay Area --
with expensive labor, real estate and electricity costs -- without
confidence.

Similar facilities can be built elsewhere. Half a dozen competitors also
are working along the same lines, led by private firms Miasole and
Daystar, in Sunnyvale, Calif., and New York.

But this is really not about who wins in the end. We all do. Thin solar
films can be used in building materials, including roofing materials and
glass, and built into mortgages, reducing their cost even further.
Inexpensive solar electric cells are, fundamentally, a "disruptive
technology," even in Seattle, with below-average electric rates and many
cloudy days. Much like cellular phones have changed the way people
communicate, cheap solar cells change the way we produce and distribute
electric energy. The race is on.

The announcements are good news for consumers worried about high energy
prices and dependence on the Middle East, utility executives worried
about the long-term viability of their next investment in central
station power plants, transmission, or distribution, and for all of us
who worry about climate change. It is also good news for the developing
world, where electricity generally is more expensive, mostly because
electrification requires long-distance transmission and serves small or
irregular loads. Inexpensive solar cells are an ideal solution.

Meanwhile, the prospect of this technology creates a conundrum for the
electric utility industry and Wall Street. Can -- or should -- any
utility, or investor, count on the long-term viability of a coal,
nuclear or gas investment? The answer is no. In about a year, we'll see
how well those technologies work. The question is whether federal energy
policy can change fast enough to join what appears to be a revolution.

Dave Freeman has been general manager of multiple utilities, including
the Tennessee Valley Authority, Los Angeles Department of Water and
Power and New York Power Authority. Jim Harding is an energy and
environment consultant in Olympia and formerly director of power
planning and forecasting at Seattle City Light. Also contributing was
Roger Duncan, assistant general manager of Austin Energy in Austin,
Texas.


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