<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2900.2912" name=GENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN
class=408391723-14082006>Sometimes there is good news. I've been following the
South African developments, but wasn't aware of the Californian
initiative.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN
class=408391723-14082006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN class=408391723-14082006>Now
we need to know where the limits are - in EROEI, environmental implications of
the process, and in reserves of the minerals involved. There's an
argument too that any 'disruptive technology' that leads to more unsustainable
growth is ultimately self-defeating as it brings the next set of limits closer.
Jevons paradox etc. In dollar terms at least, a 4-5 times improvement factor
makes it cheaper than medium-scale wind power.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN
class=408391723-14082006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN
class=408391723-14082006>Years ago I was sitting on a hill in Byron Bay, looking
out over all the building surfaces, thinking we really need a solar active paint
or building material. This stuff seems to come close to
that.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN
class=408391723-14082006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN class=408391723-14082006>Two
weeks ago I was looking out over the ocean in Queensland, thinking that
once we have a flexible, solar active surface, perhaps it could be bonded to a
piezo-electric substrate - and floated on mats on the water
surface. Hypothesis: sun and wave movement generate power during the day,
wave power only during the night. (Piezo-electric substances generate
electricity when flexed. They are used, for example, in acoustic guitar
pickups). Of course, the economics and EROEI may be useless.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN
class=408391723-14082006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN class=408391723-14082006>But
as someone with about $15,000 worth of conventional solar panels on his roof, at
about 1000 watts capacity - the numbers quoted below are
exciting. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN class=408391723-14082006>Now
we need to encourage development of 'breeder reactor' style manufacturing
processes that only use renewable energy inputs. Until hydrogen becomes feasible
(if ever!) - and ignoring wood gasification - this may imply heavy duty
electric vehicles and mining equipment.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN
class=408391723-14082006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><SPAN
class=408391723-14082006>Sandy Pollard </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2><A
href="http://www.energybulletin.net/19262.html">http://www.energybulletin.net/19262.html</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV align=left><SPAN class=594123104-17112004><FONT color=#000000 size=2><FONT
size=2><FONT color=#000080>
<H1><FONT face=Verdana size=3>Solar cells change electricity
distribution</FONT></H1>
<P><FONT face=Verdana><B>by Dave Freeman and Jim Harding</B> </FONT></P>
<DIV id=relatednews>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width=172 align=right bgColor=#ffffff
border=0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD>
<P><FONT face=Verdana> </FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<DIV id=article>
<P><FONT face=Verdana>In separate announcements over the past few months,
researchers at the University of<SPAN class=408391723-14082006>
</SPAN>Johannesburg <SPAN class=408391723-14082006>and at</SPAN> Nanosolar,
a private company in Palo Alto, have announced major breakthroughs in reducing
the cost of solar electric cells. While trade journals are abuzz with the news,
analysis of the potential implications has been sparse.<BR><BR>We approach this
news as current and former public electric utility executives, sympathetic with
consumer and environmental concerns. South Africa and California technologies
rely on the same alloy -- called CIGS (for copper-indium-gallium-selenide) --
deposited in an extremely thin layer on a flexible surface. Both companies claim
that the technology reduces solar cell production costs by a factor of 4-5. That
would bring the cost to or below that of delivered electricity in a large
fraction of the world.<BR><BR>The California team is backed by a powerful team
of private investors, including Google's two founders and the insurance giant
Swiss Re, among others. It has announced plans to build a $100 million
production facility in the San Francisco Bay area that is slated to be
operational at 215 megawatts next year, and soon thereafter capable of producing
430 megawatts of cells annually.<BR><BR>What makes this particular news stand
out? Cost, scale and financial strength. The cost of the facility is about
one-tenth that of recently completed silicon cell facilities.<BR><BR>Second,
Nanosolar is scaling up rapidly from pilot production to 430 megawatts, using a
technology it equates to printing newspapers. That implies both technical
success and development of a highly automated production process that captures
important economies of scale. No one builds that sort of industrial production
facility in the Bay Area -- with expensive labor, real estate and electricity
costs -- without confidence.<BR><BR>Similar facilities can be built elsewhere.
Half a dozen competitors also are working along the same lines, led by private
firms Miasole and Daystar, in Sunnyvale, Calif., and New York.<BR><BR>But this
is really not about who wins in the end. We all do. Thin solar films can be used
in building materials, including roofing materials and glass, and built into
mortgages, reducing their cost even further. Inexpensive solar electric cells
are, fundamentally, a "disruptive technology," even in Seattle, with
below-average electric rates and many cloudy days. Much like cellular phones
have changed the way people communicate, cheap solar cells change the way we
produce and distribute electric energy. The race is on.<BR><BR>The announcements
are good news for consumers worried about high energy prices and dependence on
the Middle East, utility executives worried about the long-term viability of
their next investment in central station power plants, transmission, or
distribution, and for all of us who worry about climate change. It is also good
news for the developing world, where electricity generally is more expensive,
mostly because electrification requires long-distance transmission and serves
small or irregular loads. Inexpensive solar cells are an ideal
solution.<BR><BR>Meanwhile, the prospect of this technology creates a conundrum
for the electric utility industry and Wall Street. Can -- or should -- any
utility, or investor, count on the long-term viability of a coal, nuclear or gas
investment? The answer is no. In about a year, we'll see how well those
technologies work. The question is whether federal energy policy can change fast
enough to join what appears to be a revolution.<BR><BR></FONT><I><FONT
face=Verdana>Dave Freeman has been general manager of multiple utilities,
including the Tennessee Valley Authority, Los Angeles Department of Water and
Power and New York Power Authority. Jim Harding is an energy and environment
consultant in Olympia and formerly director of power planning and forecasting at
Seattle City Light. Also contributing was Roger Duncan, assistant general
manager of Austin Energy in Austin, Texas.<BR></FONT></I></P></DIV></FONT>
<P><FONT face=Verdana color=#000080><SPAN
class=408391723-14082006>--</SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN></P></DIV>Notice:
The information contained in this email message and any attached files
may be confidential information, and may also be the subject of legal
professional privilege. If you are not the intended recipient any use,
disclosure or copying of this email is unauthorised. If you received
this email in error, please notify the DEWR Service Desk and delete all
copies of this transmission together with any attachments.
</BODY></HTML>