[Peakoil] [Peak Oil] Survival 101

[Adrian Whitehead]

I had programmed the setting scene element in, but focused it on the two
most immediate issues peak oil and climate change, if people wanted more we
could do it.
 
My thinking behind the choice was I didn't want to focus on too much and
sound like a "doomsday cult" to use the words from one member of the list
who replied privately to me, so left out bird flue and general environmental
degradation.
 
Climate Change can be used to highlight a number of the issue you
mentioned, bio div loss, soil deg, envi refugees etc.
 
Likewise the Jarrod bit can look at some of his case studies and include
more bit there.
 
I think a key focus on two will be enough but to reconsider esp. if we get a
speaker on each area - then no problem.
 
>From there to emphasis what I was getting in the suggested itinerary was a
session focused on surviving a depression scenario - where a set of solar
panels, solar hot water and a vege patch orientated north in the back yard
might see you through.
 
The next stage would discuss a collapse scenario.
 
Under a collapse scenario staying in a city is not an option unless your in
a self sustaining bunker with several years worth of supplies.
 
The initial purpose of my proposal is a shock and awe concept - it skips the
what you can do to stop it / deal with it (which will of course be stated in
brief at the end of the peak oil and climate change scenarios) and goes
straight to the assumption we are going to fail to rectify the problems and
hence we will have to deal with either a depression or collapse scenario. 
 
Once people are exposed to the collapse scenario I would hope that they
would realise working towards this scenario is pretty meaningless for most
(expect perhaps the young and fit and those with a real desire to survive),
and they will draw the conclusion that the only real option is to act as a
society and work at great speed towards creating a sustainable society, and
help support the climate change and peak oil campaigns.
 
However I think your proposal would also have merit and is a fair bit softer
in context and focus.
 
Adrian

   _____  

From: peakoil-bounces+adrian=ecoaction.net.au at act-peakoil.org
[mailto:peakoil-bounces+adrian=ecoaction.net.au at act-peakoil.org] On Behalf
Of Nature and Society Forum
Sent: Thursday, 13 April 2006 11:04 AM
To: Peak Oil - discussion
Subject: [Peakoil] [Peak Oil] Survival 101


Alex wrote:
 
> The emphasis on "survival" is appropriate. Another term we could use
> "sustainability" has unfortunately been debased by over-use.

> I would attend, does anyone have ideas on speakers/panelists
> for the various segments?

> I could forward this to a national oil peak list and see what people
think.

> Alex
> O4O4873828
 
Just thinking a bit more again about the 'survival' conference. Shouldn't we
spend the first half day setting the scene on why we can't take our present
modes of survival for granted into the future? That is, we need to consider
the threats and risks from peak oil, climate change, biodiversity loss, soil
degradation, overpopulation, political and environmental refugees, water
shortage, a pandemic, food (in)security and a host of others.
 
Once we have established the likelihood of a need for change, then people
will be ready for the second part of the conference which will be on
societal / national / community / family and individual preparations. In
fact many older people will not be too interested in relocating to the
country (which is a rather individualistic approach and not financially
viable for many Australians). This option poses massive ecological risks if
newcomers end up causing erosion, felling trees, building fences, disturbing
wildlife, increasing bushfire risk and otherwise despoiling Australia's
fragile ecologies. There are many other reasons to favour the idea of
ruralization (that is, in fostering communities of up to 30,000 - the size
of the mediaeval city states) over the idea of individuals heading off to
the hinterland and trying to do everything for themselves.
 
Folke Gunther has written extensively on this approach - see for example his
PowerPoint:
 
HYPERLINK
"http://www.holon.se/folke/lectures/Ruralisation-filer/v3_document.htm"http:
//www.holon.se/folke/lectures/Ruralisation-filer/v3_document.htm
 
It's possible that the 'survival' conference should follow a couple of other
conferences:
 
The first would be one that runs through the risks (examples above).
 
The second would look at ways to prevent, mitigate, ameliorate the damage to
the biosphere, human health and society (these would range from individual
action through to government action)
 
The third would look at ways to adapt to the future. Going bush might be one
of these, but it's just one. If we all go bush Australia will be swamped by
immigrants eager to join us in the good life!
 
Keith Thomas



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