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<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006>I had programmed the setting scene element in, but
focused it on the two most immediate issues peak oil and climate change, if
people wanted more we could do it.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006>My thinking behind the choice was I didn't want to
focus on too much and sound like a "doomsday cult" to use the words from one
member of the list who replied privately to me, so left out bird flue and
general environmental degradation.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006>Climate Change can be used to highlight a number of the
issue you mentioned, bio div loss, soil deg, envi refugees
etc.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=437101101-13042006></SPAN><FONT face=Arial><FONT
color=#0000ff><FONT size=2>L<SPAN class=437101101-13042006>ikewise the Jarrod
bit can look at some of his case studies and include more bit
there.</SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006>I think a key focus on two will be enough but to
reconsider esp. if we get a speaker on each area - then no
problem.</SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=437101101-13042006>From
there to emphasis what I was getting in the suggested itinerary was a
session focused on surviving a depression scenario - where a set of solar
panels, solar hot water and a vege patch orientated north in the back yard might
see you through.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=437101101-13042006>The
next stage would discuss a collapse scenario.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=437101101-13042006>Under
a collapse scenario staying in a city is not an option unless your in a self
sustaining bunker with several years worth of supplies.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=437101101-13042006>The
initial purpose of my proposal is a shock and awe concept - it skips the what
you can do to stop it / deal with it (which will of course be stated in
brief at the end of the peak oil and climate change scenarios) and goes straight
to the assumption we are going to fail to rectify the problems and hence we will
have to deal with either a depression or collapse scenario. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=437101101-13042006>Once
people are exposed to the collapse scenario I would hope that they would realise
working towards this scenario is pretty meaningless for most (expect perhaps the
young and fit and those with a real desire to survive), and they will draw
the conclusion that the only real option is to act as a society and work at
great speed towards creating a sustainable society, and help support the climate
change and peak oil campaigns.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=437101101-13042006>However I think your proposal would also have merit and
is a fair bit softer in context and focus.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=437101101-13042006><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader lang=en-us dir=ltr align=left>
<HR tabIndex=-1>
<FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>From:</B>
peakoil-bounces+adrian=ecoaction.net.au@act-peakoil.org
[mailto:peakoil-bounces+adrian=ecoaction.net.au@act-peakoil.org] <B>On Behalf Of
</B>Nature and Society Forum<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, 13 April 2006 11:04
AM<BR><B>To:</B> Peak Oil - discussion<BR><B>Subject:</B> [Peakoil] [Peak Oil]
Survival 101<BR></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Alex wrote:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>> The emphasis on "survival" is appropriate. Another
term we could use<BR>> "sustainability" has unfortunately been debased by
over-use.<BR><BR>> I would attend, does anyone have ideas on
speakers/panelists</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>> for the various segments?<BR><BR>> I could forward
this to a national oil peak list and see what people think.<BR><BR>>
Alex<BR>> O4O4873828</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2>Just thinking a bit more again about the
'survival' conference. Shouldn't we spend the first half day setting the scene
on why we can't take our present modes of survival for granted into the future?
That is, we need to consider the threats and risks from peak oil, climate
change, biodiversity loss, soil degradation, overpopulation, political and
environmental refugees, water shortage, a pandemic, food (in)security and a host
of others.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2>Once we have established the likelihood of a
need for change, then people will be ready for the second part of the conference
which will be on societal / national / community / family and individual
preparations. In fact many older people will not be too interested in relocating
to the country (which is a rather individualistic approach and not financially
viable for many Australians). This option poses massive ecological risks if
newcomers end up causing erosion, felling trees, building fences, disturbing
wildlife, increasing bushfire risk and otherwise
despoiling Australia's fragile ecologies. There are many other reasons
to favour the idea of ruralization (that is, in fostering communities of up to
30,000 - the size of the mediaeval city states) over the idea of individuals
heading off to the hinterland and trying to do everything for
themselves.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2>Folke Gunther has written extensively on this
approach - see for example his PowerPoint:</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2><A
href="http://www.holon.se/folke/lectures/Ruralisation-filer/v3_document.htm">http://www.holon.se/folke/lectures/Ruralisation-filer/v3_document.htm</A></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2>It's possible that the 'survival' conference
should follow a couple of other conferences:</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2>The first would be one that runs through the
risks (examples above).</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2>The second would look at ways to prevent,
mitigate, ameliorate the damage to the biosphere, human health and society
(these would range from individual action through to government
action)</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2>The third would look at ways to adapt to the
future. Going bush might be one of these, but it's just one. If we all go bush
Australia will be swamped by immigrants eager to join us in the good
life!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Keith Thomas</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV></FONT><BR>
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