revision RE: [Peakoil] draft letter

[Alex P]

Hi folks,

The Canberra Times has yet to publish any replies to the opinion so it's an 
opportunity to do some redrafting. Any suggestions for changes to the 
version below?

The letter need not be sent in my name only, if people want to associate 
their name with it jointly that would be fine by me.

If people could make suggestions by 2pm, I'll send shortly thereafter.

Alex
O4O4873828

ACT Peak Oil discussion list
http://act-peakoil.org

On Wed, 12 Oct 2005 15:07:22 +1000 (EST), "POLLARD,Sandy" 
<Sandy.POLLARD at dewr.gov.au> wrote :

> Nice work, Alex. I've suggested what I hope are enhancements [square
> brackets]. Cheers, Sandy.
> 
> 
> [Keith Sutor's] opinion piece "Oil-reliant nations walking the steep
> slope of Huppert's peak" 
> (CT, 11/10/2005) provides a useful overview of the problems of world oil
> 
> supply. [The] correct name is actually "Hubbert's Peak", named after 
> Marion King Hubbert, who successfully predicted [in 1956] that the peak
> of US 
> mainland oil production would occur around 1970.
> 
> Hubbert [showed] that rates of oil production follow a rough bell curve.
> 
> Hubbert's Peak is the point at which oil production reaches its maximum 
> [ ] output, [and comes at the point in time when approximately half the
> finite reserves have been extracted. But the price of oil before the
> Peak is likely to be a lot lower than after, as production decreases
> year-by-year]. 
> 
> [As] production increases prior to the peak, energy forecasters become
> accustomed to production always matching ever-increasing demand. But as
> the peak passes, supply contracts and the price surges upward. [As the
> oil company Chevron declared recently, "One thing is clear: the age of
> easy oil is over"].
> 
> Given oil's essential role in transport, as an industrial feedstock -
> and importantly, in agriculture - our society, lulled into believing
> there are no limits to supply, is 
> badly unprepared.  [So] far people have not been given a complete
> picture, 
> rather prices have been left to do the talking. This has limited debate
> to 
> supposed fixes on the supply-side such as ethanol and fuel excise cuts.
> But 
> conservation measures are essential. We should not be wasting public
> money 
> or time on dubious or self-defeating measures while the peak looms.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org
> [mailto:peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org] On
> Behalf Of Alex P
> Sent: Wednesday, October 12, 2005 1:20 PM
> To: peakoil at act-peakoil.org
> Subject: [Peakoil] draft letter
> 
> 
> The opinion "Oil-reliant nations walking the steep slope of Huppert's
> peak" 
> (CT, 11/10/2005) provides a useful overview of the problems of world oil
> 
> supply. Though the correct name is actually "Hubbert's Peak", named
> after 
> Marion King Hubbert, who successfully predicted that the peak of US 
> mainland oil production would occur around 1970.
> 
> Hubbert surmised that rates of oil production follow a rough bell curve.
> 
> Hubbert's Peak is the point at which oil production reaches its maximum 
> yearly output. The cumulative production before and after the peak is 
> approximately equal. But the price of oil before the Peak is low, and 
> afterward, very high. What's more, as production increases prior to the 
> peak, energy forecasters become accustomed to production always matching
> 
> ever-increasing demand. They even start assuming oil prices are in long-
> term decline. But as the peak passes, supply contracts and the price
> surges 
> upward.
> 
> Our society, lulled into believing there are no limits to oil supply, is
> 
> badly unprepared. Thus far people have not been given a complete
> picture, 
> rather prices have been left to do the talking. This has limited debate
> to 
> supposed fixes on the supply-side such as ethanol and fuel excise cuts.
> But 
> conservation measures are essential. We should not be wasting public
> money 
> or time on dubious or self-defeating measures while the peak looms.
> 
> 
> Alex Pollard
> Convenor
> ACT Peak Oil Awareness
> 
> alex-po at trevbus.org
> O4O4873828
> http://act-peakoil.org
> 
> 
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