[Peakoil] draft letter

[POLLARD,Sandy]

Nice work, Alex. I've suggested what I hope are enhancements [square
brackets]. Cheers, Sandy.


[Keith Sutor's] opinion piece "Oil-reliant nations walking the steep
slope of Huppert's peak" 
(CT, 11/10/2005) provides a useful overview of the problems of world oil

supply. [The] correct name is actually "Hubbert's Peak", named after 
Marion King Hubbert, who successfully predicted [in 1956] that the peak
of US 
mainland oil production would occur around 1970.

Hubbert [showed] that rates of oil production follow a rough bell curve.

Hubbert's Peak is the point at which oil production reaches its maximum 
[ ] output, [and comes at the point in time when approximately half the
finite reserves have been extracted. But the price of oil before the
Peak is likely to be a lot lower than after, as production decreases
year-by-year]. 

[As] production increases prior to the peak, energy forecasters become
accustomed to production always matching ever-increasing demand. But as
the peak passes, supply contracts and the price surges upward. [As the
oil company Chevron declared recently, "One thing is clear: the age of
easy oil is over"].

Given oil's essential role in transport, as an industrial feedstock -
and importantly, in agriculture - our society, lulled into believing
there are no limits to supply, is 
badly unprepared.  [So] far people have not been given a complete
picture, 
rather prices have been left to do the talking. This has limited debate
to 
supposed fixes on the supply-side such as ethanol and fuel excise cuts.
But 
conservation measures are essential. We should not be wasting public
money 
or time on dubious or self-defeating measures while the peak looms.




-----Original Message-----
From: peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org
[mailto:peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org] On
Behalf Of Alex P
Sent: Wednesday, October 12, 2005 1:20 PM
To: peakoil at act-peakoil.org
Subject: [Peakoil] draft letter


The opinion "Oil-reliant nations walking the steep slope of Huppert's
peak" 
(CT, 11/10/2005) provides a useful overview of the problems of world oil

supply. Though the correct name is actually "Hubbert's Peak", named
after 
Marion King Hubbert, who successfully predicted that the peak of US 
mainland oil production would occur around 1970.

Hubbert surmised that rates of oil production follow a rough bell curve.

Hubbert's Peak is the point at which oil production reaches its maximum 
yearly output. The cumulative production before and after the peak is 
approximately equal. But the price of oil before the Peak is low, and 
afterward, very high. What's more, as production increases prior to the 
peak, energy forecasters become accustomed to production always matching

ever-increasing demand. They even start assuming oil prices are in long-
term decline. But as the peak passes, supply contracts and the price
surges 
upward.

Our society, lulled into believing there are no limits to oil supply, is

badly unprepared. Thus far people have not been given a complete
picture, 
rather prices have been left to do the talking. This has limited debate
to 
supposed fixes on the supply-side such as ethanol and fuel excise cuts.
But 
conservation measures are essential. We should not be wasting public
money 
or time on dubious or self-defeating measures while the peak looms.


Alex Pollard
Convenor
ACT Peak Oil Awareness

alex-po at trevbus.org
O4O4873828
http://act-peakoil.org


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