[Peakoil] FW: Seminar, Canberra 4pm today USGS oil reserves, Hubbert Curve

[Adrian Whitehead]

-----Original Message-----
From: Magarey Paul [mailto:Paul.Magarey at dotars.gov.au] 
Sent: Thursday, 28 April 2005 2:57 PM
To: Adrian Whitehead
Subject: FW: Seminar, Canberra 4pm today USGS oil reserves, Hubbert Curve 

for forwarding to the oil group 

-----Original Message-----
From: Bruce.Robinson at csiro.au [mailto:Bruce.Robinson at csiro.au]
Sent: Thursday, 28 April 2005 12:13 PM
To: Potterton Phil; Martin Lyn
Cc: Magarey Paul
Subject: Seminar, Canberra 4pm today USGS oil reserves, Hubbert Curve 

 Dear Phil,

I am not sure if you are aware of this oil reserves talk.  This is, at least
superficially, the other side of the story from the "pessimists".
I suspect there is some common ground between the lines, but I am not sure.

Bruce

Bruce Robinson
Sustainable Transport Coalition
2 Barsden St,
Cottesloe  WA  6011
Western Australia
61-8-9384-7409
www.STCwa.org.au



 This Canberra seminar  4pm today, at Geoscience Australia, may interest
people.

The USGS and McCabe are clearly towards the "optimistic" side of the debate,
but McCabe's APPEA talk had some interesting side-lines.  I have
a copy of his APPEA Powerpoint if anyone is interested.   It is also
reported in this weeks Oil & Gas Journal.

McCabe did not in Perth offer any forecasts of the date of Peak Oil, talking
only about reserves.  He did say that the depletion "Hubbert"
curve need not be symmetrical, although he did not say whether he forecast
an early peak and a long tail, or a late peak, and a much steeper decline.
He did also show some slides of the age-structure of populations in the OPEC
countries, and commented that the American and French revolutions were at a
time when the average population age was very low, as is now the case in
Saudi Arabia and Iran, for instance.
This was an unexpected point with some ramifications.


 "world oil and gas resources: how much is left? where is it? how do we find
it?"

Dr McCabe delivered this talk in a Plenary Session at the recent APPEA
Conference in Perth.  Dr McCabe will also give some additional background
information on M. King Hubbert in a presentation titled:

"RISE AND FALL OF THE HUBBERT CURVE: THE LIFE AND TIMES OF M. KING HUBBERT" 

 

 




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