[Peakoil] The needs of global warming trump peak oil

[karin at doctordemocracy.net]

I've been invited to speak at the climate change rally in Moruya Nov 28,
and they are doing great things with their farmer's market and much more.

The transition theme is the one I will be using, building 'agile'
communities (one of Malcolm's favourite terms, but one which I first heard
about in the mid 90s)

war, partly driven by climate change, will inevitably affect population

Karin




> Tony
>
> I basically agree with you though we have the transition away from the
> oil-based economy to worry about. We have to do it so that economies don't
> collapse in the process; not too slowly or we fry the planet; and not too
> quickly or people and goods, particularly food, won't get around as
> needed.
> I think an oil-depletion protocol is needed; not just to share decreasing
> amounts of oil around but to ensure those amounts ARE decreasing for
> climate
> change reasons.
>
> But we have to look at it even more holistically. How many people can the
> world support at a standard of living where their basic needs are
> supplied,
> given existing technologies, and without degrading the Earth and
> compromising the other species we share it with? Answer: Not as many as we
> have today and not nearly as many as the UN projections for 2050 ans 2100.
> Probably less than two billion even with the best of technology. We have
> to
> reduce population (as Japan is successfully doing), keep most of fossil
> fuels in the ground and work flat out to make the transition to a
> renewable
> economy. According to Steve Rintoul who gave the Malcolm McIntosh memorial
> lecture a couple of weeks ago, we have already locked in 3-4 metres of
> sea-level rise (though it won't all come this century of course) so those
> ports and coastal cities will have to be kissed goodbye anyway, if not in
> the next few decades.
>
> Jenny
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Antony Broughton Barry" <antonybbarry at me.com>
> To: "ACT-PeakOil mailing list" <peakoil at act-peakoil.org>
> Sent: Wednesday, November 11, 2015 5:53 PM
> Subject: [Peakoil] The needs of global warming trump peak oil
>
>
>> Folks
>>
>> Over a decade ago I realized there were a number of existential threats
>> facing human society and found a rich literature supporting this view
>> with
>> an added worry that many of them had likely impact within the next few
>> decades or current century. The most immediate seemed to be resource
>> depletion and the most significant resource under threat was crude oil,
>> thence my interest in peak oil and my involvement in this movement. I am
>> now considering that I was mistaken. Let me explain.
>>
>> I had thought initially that as easy oil was extracted and more
>> difficult
>> sources utilized prices would rise to cover the higher extraction cost
>> and
>> supply and demand would do its thing and the economy would get
>> progressively squeezed leading to a global depression with a risk of
>> collapse.
>>
>> Fracking and a shift to gas has delayed the peak and cycles in the
>> economy
>> disguised what is happening but other things have also been happening
>> mostly in relation to awareness of the need to respond to global warming
>> and the consequent need to get out of fossil fuels.
>>
>> In no particular order a list of trends which indicate a concern for our
>> vulnerability to difficulties with oil supply -
>>
>> * Europe and the U.S. have set vehicular fuel standards to increase fuel
>> efficiency.
>>
>> * In developed countries we have reach "peak car" in the kilometers
>> driven
>> has peaked and may be in decline.
>>
>> * Demand for oil has dropped as a consequence so prices have dropped
>> even
>> though oil is being extracted from expensive places.
>>
>> * Every major car manufacturer is developing electric models although
>> Toyota is still trying fuel cells. Major firms like Google and Apple are
>> eyeing this market and startups like Tesla plan to be a major player.
>> They
>> are not stupid. An electric car doesn't need a transmission , a cooling
>> system, oil changes or much servicing. What it does need is cheap
>> batteries and the IC engine is toast
>>
>> * Batteries are declining in cost by 14%pa
>>
>> * Best estimates for us to survive global warming give us a carbon
>> budget
>> of how much of the fossil fuels we can burn. These estimates would leave
>> most of it in the ground _including_ most crude oil.
>>
>> Where does that leave us?
>>
>> * We are going to have to cut our oil use before the peak hits to cut
>> global warming. Our need to react to oil depletion is trumped by the
>> greater need to protect the climate
>>
>> * The objective of the Peak Oil movement to alert society to the need to
>> adapt to the certainty of scarcity of oil in the future is now overtaken
>> by the need to tell people to stop burning the stuff to protect the
>> climate.
>>
>> In summary to cope with the threat of climate change we have to get out
>> of
>> oil. Rather than our oil use being restricted by supply constraints our
>> demand must reduce faster than supply might drop.
>>
>> Peak oil has become a second order problem.
>>
>> The first order problem is global warming and first we need to get out
>> of
>> fossil fuels as fast as we can so it won't get worse, and secondly plan
>> to
>> adapt to a new climate and a changing coastline. Even if we restrict to
>> 2
>> degrees every port on the planet will need to be rebuilt and tens if not
>> hundreds of millions of people displaced from their homes.
>>
>> The next thousand years will be hard.
>>
>> Comments?
>>
>> Tony
>>
>>
>>
>>
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>
>
>
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