[Peakoil] The Climate Talks Find an Enemy at COP20: The Fossil Fuel Industry | Jamie Henn

[Keith Thomas]

Let me put another view: The precipitating cause of climate change is not fossil fuel emissions. And although they have become an increasingly large part of the problem, the only way to deal effectively and conclusively with climate change lies elsewhere.

Here is a thumbnail explanation:

• Look at a picture of the famous Keeling graph which depicts CO2 in the atmosphere
• The recording of the Keeling graph data takes place in the northern hemisphere
• Note that the Keeling graph has two features:
(1) the curve shows a steady rise over time (this is the only feature people notice)
(2) the curve is a sawtooth. That is, there is a rise in CO2 in the northern autumn and winter and a fall in CO2 in the northern spring and summer (this is the graph's most important feature)
• The sawtooth is a natural cycle, but under normal circumstances the rise and fall would be equal over a 5-10 year period
• If that annual rise and fall were equal, the trend would be horizontal. And that's the normal state
• There is a southern hemisphere recording station at Cape Grim off Tasmania. Their graph is a mirror image of the Keeling graph, with a rise in the SOUTHERN autumn and winter and a fall in the SOUTHERN spring and summer.

Now, we know that fossil fuel emissions do not rise and fall as sharply or seasonally as the Keeling sawteeth.

So, what's happening? Why is each annual cycle falling short by just a few percentage points every year?

• Each spring and summer plant, fungal and bacterial activity increases and CO2 is drawn out of the atmosphere and bound in living organisms
• Each autumn and winter, grasses die, deciduous leaves fall and decay, tree growth pauses and the cold weather sends microbes into low metabolism

By removing forests, open woodland and grasslands (and their thriving biomes, including living soils), we have destroyed the ability of the web of living organisms to absorb as much CO2 as was released into the atmosphere in the previous cold season.

If we restored the quantity and health of forests, grasslands and soils, the 5-10% shortfall could easily be made up and the Keeling graph restored to a horizontal line. This restoration would have to be well-designed to "over-compensate" to deal with the added burden of fossil fuel emissions, but that is not a  big problem, especially considering that fossil fuel emissions of CO2 are minute compared with the natural cold-season emissions.

Of course, there is more to this picture than my few lines above can cover. But I hope I have given you an idea for exploration.
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Keith Thomas
myrmecia at gmail.com
Within UK: 074 2929 4146
(From outside UK: +44 74 2929 4146)
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On 12 Dec 2014, at 4:42 am, Antony Broughton Barry <antonybbarry at me.com> wrote:

Quote: The UN Climate Talks in Paris next December are shaping up be high noon for the fossil fuel industry.
......

But one theme is emerging loud and clear: if the world is serious about addressing the climate crisis, we must get off fossil fuels--completely. This is a new frame for the climate negotiations and it's revolutionary in its implications.

......

While countries still play a central role in the negotiations, a new actor has taken the stage: the fossil fuel industry. I've been coming to the climate talks since 2005 and I've never heard more discussion about the need to leave fossil fuels in the ground and radically transform the industry as we know it.

I'm not the only one. Earlier today, the Associated Press ran a piece about how a "zero emissions" goal has been quickly gaining traction, with over 100 countries adopting the target. Yesterday, Leonardo DiCaprio tweeted out the news that the new climate text would "end fossil fuels" by 2050.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jamie-henn/the-climate-talks-find-an_b_6308094.html