[Peakoil] A 33 year-old warning

[karin at doctordemocracy.net]

What happened then, I have been told, is that Australia switched from oil
to natural gas for heating.

Planning for better public transport is still on the wish list.

Karin Geiselhart


> Hello folks,
>
> I was tidying one of my dustier bookshelves recently and discovered a
> booklet entitled "Energy Research and Development in Australia, A Report
> to the Prime Minister by the Australian Science and Technology Council."
> The report was delivered in October 1977 and published a year later.
>
> I am astonished at what I read in it. You may find it interesting. Below
> are just a few excerpts. Bear the context in mind: it came out 4 years
> after the 1973 oil shock (and 1 year before the 1979 shock).
>
> "In the near future Australia will be faced with severe shortages of
> liquid fuels for transport purposes and investigations of means to reduce
> the impact of these shortages need to be instituted as a matter of
> urgency." (p.v)
>
> Comment: I don't remember much being done.
>
> "16. Environmental aspects should be considered at an early stage in the
> utilisation of a new energy technology." (p.ix)
>
> Comment: it is encouraging to observe that this did happen, although some
> projects seem to be less bothered by environmental considerations than
> others, e.g. hydraulic fracturing.
>
> "2.2 Australia has substantial reserves of both black and brown coal, but
> estimates of the life of these reserves, in years, differ considerably,
> depending on the assumptions which are made about a number of factors. For
> example, the life of any reserve or resource is strongly influenced by the
> consumption growth rate, and a resource with a life of say 1,000 years at
> the present rate of consumption has a life of only 79 years if the
> consumption increases at 5% per annum. This 'compound interest' effect is
> of the greatest importance when considering the capacity of our coal
> reserves to meet escalating demands for export, for electricity
> generation, and for the gasification and liquefaction industries." (p.
> 6,7)
>
> Comment: 33 years ago scientists were well aware of the behaviour of the
> exponential curve. Back then I read this paragraph and must confess that
> its significance went right over my head. Now we have people suggesting
> that peak coal (worldwide) may be a lot closer than we suspect.
>
> How about that: we were given due warning 33 years ago. Nothing much
> happened, did it?
>
> Regards,
> Walter Steensby
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