[Peakoil] A 33 year-old warning

[W & C Steensby]

Hello folks,

I was tidying one of my dustier bookshelves recently and discovered a booklet entitled "Energy Research and Development in Australia, A Report to the Prime Minister by the Australian Science and Technology Council." The report was delivered in October 1977 and published a year later.

I am astonished at what I read in it. You may find it interesting. Below are just a few excerpts. Bear the context in mind: it came out 4 years after the 1973 oil shock (and 1 year before the 1979 shock).

"In the near future Australia will be faced with severe shortages of liquid fuels for transport purposes and investigations of means to reduce the impact of these shortages need to be instituted as a matter of urgency." (p.v)

Comment: I don't remember much being done.

"16. Environmental aspects should be considered at an early stage in the utilisation of a new energy technology." (p.ix)

Comment: it is encouraging to observe that this did happen, although some projects seem to be less bothered by environmental considerations than others, e.g. hydraulic fracturing.

"2.2 Australia has substantial reserves of both black and brown coal, but estimates of the life of these reserves, in years, differ considerably, depending on the assumptions which are made about a number of factors. For example, the life of any reserve or resource is strongly influenced by the consumption growth rate, and a resource with a life of say 1,000 years at the present rate of consumption has a life of only 79 years if the consumption increases at 5% per annum. This 'compound interest' effect is of the greatest importance when considering the capacity of our coal reserves to meet escalating demands for export, for electricity generation, and for the gasification and liquefaction industries." (p. 6,7)

Comment: 33 years ago scientists were well aware of the behaviour of the exponential curve. Back then I read this paragraph and must confess that its significance went right over my head. Now we have people suggesting that peak coal (worldwide) may be a lot closer than we suspect.

How about that: we were given due warning 33 years ago. Nothing much happened, did it?

Regards,
Walter Steensby