[Peakoil] Fwd: New government report: Ozy crude oil to decline 85% over 10 years; serious oil import crisis ahead

[Nature and Society Forum]

If any of you are not on Matt Mushalik's mailing list, you should be.  
Here's the work he did over this last weekend. He doesn't flood  
subscribers with information (bulletins come in about once a fortnight  
- thick with facts and powerful graphs).
--------------------------------------------------
Keith Thomas
--------------------------------------------------

Begin forwarded message:

From: Matt <mushalik at tpg.com.au>
Date: 22 March 2010 11:03:27 AM
To: Matt Mushalik <mushalik at tpg.com.au>
Subject: New government report: Ozy crude oil to decline 85% over 10  
years; serious oil import crisis ahead

To participants of the Summit 2020 sustainability group
I wrote following letter:
--------------------------
To

Federal Cabinet
Parliamentary Secretaries

Madam, Sir

I have written a 10 page analysis on chapter 3 of the Australian  
Energy Resource Assessment
https://www.ga.gov.au/products/servlet/controller?event=GEOCAT_DETAILS&catno=70142

available here:

17/3/2010
Australian crude oil production to decline 85% over the next 10 years
http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=1243

Summary:

(1) Australian crude oil to decline 85% over next 10 years
(2) Partially offset by condensate but only 5% can be used in Ozy  
refineries. Rest is exported into the bottomless pit of global oil  
markets
(3) No LPG projection, propane/butane, East/West coast problems not  
mentioned
(4) Again misleading statement on 42 years of "enough" oil
(5) Statement on "balanced" oil supply factually incorrect
(6) No hint on OPEC's overstated reserves
(7) Australian oil reserves in BP Statistical Review are also misleading

Conclusion: As global oil export volumes are shrinking and  
increasingly taken up by Chindia, Australia will face a number one  
crude oil import problem. When the truth comes out about OPEC's paper  
barrels confidence in ALL oil reserves and production forecasts will  
disappear. Oil markets will freeze like credit markets in the GFC. We  
can export as much coal and gas as we like, we won't be able to buy  
crude oil for our refineries as freely as everyone naively assumes.

Questions and Answers

(1) Are we converting our trucks and agricultural machinery to CNG/ 
LNG? No
(2) Are we keeping our rural rail lines alive for the transport of  
grain? No
       Diesel shortages = Food shortages
(3) Are we electrifying our main rail lines Melbourne - (Adelaide) -  
Sydney - Brisbane? No
(4) Are we building up night train capacity to replace air traffic  
after the collapse of airlines in the next oil price shock? No
       Diesel & aviation fuel shortages = bus, train & plane  
cancellations
(5) Are we loading our long distance trucks on intermodal trains? No
        Never mind our consumer goods in the shelves of shopping centres
(6) Are we preparing our motorists for petrol rationing and car  
pooling? No
       Road rage will be worse than would be the case if public were  
properly informed

What is the Federal government doing? Building new freeways (Hunter,  
Western Freeway)
(7) Is that a strategy away from oil? No

Ladies and gentlemen, we are in big trouble at the next oil crunch  
predicted for 2012. It can come earlier:

Hundreds of powerful US “bunker-buster” bombs are being shipped from  
California to the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean  
in preparation for a possible attack on Iran.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/world-news/final-destination-iran-1.1013151

We still have no Strategic Oil Reserve because a series of government  
reports got it completely wrong due to an entrenched peak oil denial  
mode.

Regards
Matt Mushalik (MIEAust, CPEng) Civil Engineer, Town & Regional  
Planner, Peak Oil Adviser
4a Hermington St, Epping 2121



-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://act-peakoil.org/pipermail/peakoil/attachments/20100322/fdbe781a/attachment-0001.htm 
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: mime-attachment.jpeg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 19434 bytes
Desc: not available
Url : http://act-peakoil.org/pipermail/peakoil/attachments/20100322/fdbe781a/attachment-0001.jpeg