<html><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">If any of you are not on Matt Mushalik's mailing list, you should be. Here's the work he did over this last weekend. He doesn't flood subscribers with information (bulletins come in about once a fortnight - thick with facts and powerful graphs).<br><div apple-content-edited="true"> <span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; 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"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#408000">--------------------------------------------------</font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#408000">Keith Thomas</font></div><div><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#408000">--------------------------------------------------</font></div></div></div></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span> </div><div><br><div>Begin forwarded message:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "><font face="Helvetica" size="3" color="#000000" style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; color: #000000"><b>From: </b></font><font face="Helvetica" size="3" style="font: 12.0px Helvetica">Matt <<font class="Apple-style-span" color="#F91715"><a href="mailto:mushalik@tpg.com.au">mushalik@tpg.com.au</a></font>></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "><font face="Helvetica" size="3" color="#000000" style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; color: #000000"><b>Date: </b></font><font face="Helvetica" size="3" style="font: 12.0px Helvetica">22 March 2010 11:03:27 AM</font></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "><font face="Helvetica" size="3" color="#000000" style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; color: #000000"><b>To: </b></font><font face="Helvetica" size="3" style="font: 12.0px Helvetica">Matt Mushalik <<a href="mailto:mushalik@tpg.com.au">mushalik@tpg.com.au</a>></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "><font face="Helvetica" size="3" color="#000000" style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; color: #000000"><b>Subject: </b></font><font face="Helvetica" size="3" style="font: 12.0px Helvetica"><b>New government report: Ozy crude oil to decline 85% over 10 years; serious oil import crisis ahead</b></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><br></div> </div> <div style="" bgcolor="#ffffff" text="#000000"> To participants of the Summit 2020 sustainability group<br> I wrote following letter:<br> --------------------------<br> To<br> <br> Federal Cabinet<br> Parliamentary Secretaries<br> <br> Madam, Sir<br> <br> I have written a 10 page analysis on chapter 3 of the Australian Energy Resource Assessment<br> <span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif";"><a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/products/servlet/controller?event=GEOCAT_DETAILS&catno=70142"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">https://www.ga.gov.au/products/servlet/controller?event=GEOCAT_DETAILS&catno=70142</span></a></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif";"> <br> <br> available here:<br> <br> </span>17/3/2010<br> Australian crude oil production to decline 85% over the next 10 years<br> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=1243">http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=1243</a> <br> <br> Summary:<br> <br> (1) Australian crude oil to decline 85% over next 10 years<br> (2) Partially offset by condensate but only 5% can be used in Ozy refineries. Rest is exported into the bottomless pit of global oil markets<br> (3) No LPG projection, propane/butane, East/West coast problems not mentioned<br> (4) Again misleading statement on 42 years of "enough" oil<br> (5) Statement on "balanced" oil supply factually incorrect<br> (6) No hint on OPEC's overstated reserves<br> (7) Australian oil reserves in BP Statistical Review are also misleading<br> <br> Conclusion: As global oil export volumes are shrinking and increasingly taken up by Chindia, Australia will face a number one crude oil import problem. <small><b><big><big>When the truth comes out about OPEC's paper barrels confidence in ALL oil reserves and production forecasts will disappear. Oil markets will freeze like credit markets in the GFC. We can export as much coal and gas as we like, we won't be able to buy crude oil for our refineries as freely as everyone naively assumes.</big></big></b></small><br> <br> Questions and Answers<br> <br> (1) Are we converting our trucks and agricultural machinery to CNG/LNG? No<br> (2) Are we keeping our rural rail lines alive for the transport of grain? No<br> <big><big><b>Diesel shortages = Food shortages</b></big></big><br> (3) Are we electrifying our main rail lines Melbourne - (Adelaide) - Sydney - Brisbane? No<br> (4) Are we building up night train capacity to replace air traffic after the collapse of airlines in the next oil price shock? No<br> <big><big><b>Diesel & aviation fuel shortages = bus, train & plane cancellations</b></big></big><br> (5) Are we loading our long distance trucks on intermodal trains? No<br> <b>Never mind our consumer goods in the shelves of shopping centres<br> </b>(6) Are we preparing our motorists for petrol rationing and car pooling? No<br> <big><big><b>Road rage will be worse than would be the case if public were properly informed</b></big></big><br> <br> What is the Federal government doing? Building new freeways (Hunter, Western Freeway)<br> (7) Is that a strategy away from oil? No<br> <br> Ladies and gentlemen, we are in big trouble at the next oil crunch predicted for 2012. It can come earlier:<br> <br> <strong>Hundreds of powerful US “bunker-buster” bombs are being shipped from California to the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in preparation for a possible attack on Iran.<br> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/world-news/final-destination-iran-1.1013151">http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/world-news/final-destination-iran-1.1013151</a> <br> <br> <b>We still have no Strategic Oil Reserve because a series of government reports got it completely wrong due to an entrenched peak oil denial mode.</b><br> </strong><br> Regards<br> Matt Mushalik (MIEAust, CPEng) Civil Engineer, Town & Regional Planner, Peak Oil Adviser<br> 4a Hermington St, Epping 2121<br> <br> <img alt="www dot crudeoilpeak dot com" height="121" width="530" src="cid:part1.06010205.03070002@tpg.com.au"><br> </div> </div><br></body></html>