[Peakoil] [Peakoil-announce] ACT Light Rail Announcements

Sat Apr 11 01:24:34 UTC 2009

Alex

We are about 8 years too late to begin in, say, a leisurely four or  
five years hence, constructing light rail in Canberra.

If you look at the global oil situation - as in this article translated  
from the German for The Energy Bulletin - we have about 18 months (at  
the most) to prepare.
=================
The IEA warns of shortages - "The next oil crisis is coming"
  by Michael Kläsgen
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48582

A shortage of oil could trigger another global recession around 2013 –  
says the IEA. By 2010 the price will reach new highs.

The IEA in Paris is warning of a new, much more severe global economic  
crisis around 2013. The reason is that investments in oil from new  
projects are being cancelled by large oil companies. If demand starts  
increasing in 2010, the oil price could explode, fire up inflation and  
put global growth at risk.

"We are concerned that oil companies are reducing their investment  
levels. When demand returns a supply shortage could appear. We are even  
predicting that this shortage could occur in 2013." Said Nobuo Tanaka,  
head of the IEA in an interview with Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

Oil reserves declining markedly

He is alarmed, because he has data that shows that the global oil  
supply capacity is declining and that oil reserves will likely be  
markedly reduced by 2013. The stronger oil demand will be in a recovery  
starting in 2010, especially in the US, China and India, the sooner the  
shortage will appear and strangle global growth.

According to the IEA, the oil price could then exceed the records  
achieved in the summer of 2008 and reach $200 per barrel. "We could be  
steering into a new crisis which could be greater than the current  
crisis", said Mr. Tanaka. "That is why we are warning oil companies to  
invest", said Mr. Tanaka. Despite billions in profits in the prior  
year, oil companies are cancelling their investments because at the  
current price of $40, they are barely profitable.

The investment levels are already down 25% from a year ago. The OPEC  
countries are reducing production, because they do not see sufficient  
demand. Of 130 large oil projects, 35 have been frozen by February,  
said OPEC general secretary Abdullah al-Badri.

The investments however, are necessary to meet demand when it starts  
picking up again. This is not a matter of oil running out, but IEA  
studies prove that the oil produced from 580 of the largest 800 fields  
is declining.

The CEO of the French oil company Total, Christophe de Margerie, is  
even predicting that global production will never exceed 89 million  
barrels per day, because the peak has passed and oil can only be  
extracted with ever increasing technical inputs.

Global demand is increasing

The IEA however is predicting markedly higher global demand. Almost  
half of the demand must be met by new fields, because existing reserves  
are declining more and more. Tanaka is calling on the OECD countries,  
the 30 western industrialised economies for which he speaks, to  
radically change in their energy policies.

Unfortunately, he has found that because of the global economic crisis,  
investments in renewable energy and nuclear power are declining. If  
additional measures are not undertaken however against global warming,  
and the CO2 emissions continue their step upward trajectory, this will  
lead to warming of six degrees centigrade by the end of the century.  
"This would be a disaster", said Tanaka. Then the northern German city  
of Hanover would be a warm as Marrakech today.

The IEA is recommending increased energy efficiency. Governments should  
induce consumers to use energy as focused as possible. Globally, he is  
recommending an energy mix with 50% renewables such as wind, hydro and  
solar. A quarter would have to come from nuclear power. A further  
quarter would have to come from sources where CO2 would have to be  
sequestered underground.

Because this will be difficult to achieve, the IEA believes that there  
will be an increased dependency on oil. "It is true that the weight of  
OPEC will increase, even if we reduce our oil consumption. And this is  
the central question for our energy security."

Mr. Tanaka stated his intention to appeal to the governments. "When the  
heads of state of the leading industrialised economies meet, we will be  
warning them about the consequences of lacking investment in the energy  
sector."
--------------------------------------------
Keith Thomas
www.evfit.com
--------------------------------------------
On 11/04/2009, at 9:49 AM, Alex Pollard wrote:

The ACT Government has released the business case submitted to
Infrastructure Australia regarding light rail, following a question in  
the
assembly.

Some relevant links:

http://www.tams.act.gov.au/move/light_rail

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/light-rail-not- 
factored-into-new-bus-hub-design/1477483.aspx

http://www.chiefminister.act.gov.au/media.php?v=7907

http://actlightrail.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=108

http://actlightrail.info/index.php? 
option=com_content&task=view&id=110&Itemid=1

http://actlightrail.info/index.php? 
option=com_content&task=view&id=111&Itemid=27

Regards,

Alex Pollard
O4O4873828

President
ACT Peak Oil Inc.

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