[Peakoil] [Peakoil-announce] Gasoline stockpiles falling dramatically

[Keith Thomas]

As an aside, we need to keep the significance of the US's Strategic  
Petroleum Reserve in context. According to Wikipedia, its capacity is  
727 million barrels and it contains about 690 million barrels now.  
That's just 57 days of US consumption. However, it would last longer  
than that as they can't pump it out any faster than 4.4 Mbd.

The reserve contains crude oil, not refined products.
--------------------------------------------
Keith Thomas
www.evfit.com
--------------------------------------------
On 02/11/2007, at 1:52 PM, Alex Pollard wrote:

Hi folks,

As predicted in May, we are experiencing a supply crunch. This is the  
main
reason the oil price is rising. The falling US dollar and other
geopolitical factors also contribute.

Alex
O4O4873828

ACT Peak Oil
http://act-peakoil.org


On Tue May 15 14:28:40 2007, "Alex P" <alex-po at trevbus.org> wrote :

> Forwarded from the ROEOZ list.
>
> More evidence that the Peak has happened, OECD nations have drawn down
> nearly 1 million barrels per day from stockpiles during the first  
> quarter
> just to keep prices stable. World production is approx 85 millions
barrels
> per day. Demand is outstripping supply. And this drawn-down is set to
grow
> to 1.6 million barrels per day by the end of the year. But stockpiles  
> are
> finite of course.
>
> That means prices are going to go way up within months.
>
> Alex
> O4O4873828
>
> ACT Peak Oil
> http://act-peakoil.org
>
>
> ------------- Forwarded message follows -------------
>
>
> from ASPO-USA's Peak Oil Review, 14 May 2007
>
> Gasoline stockpiles remain a serious problem
>
> The EIA reported last Wednesday that US gasoline stocks rose by 400,000
> barrels the previous week, the first increase in 13 weeks. A closer
> inspection of the report, however, shows that the increase was due to a
1.1
> million barrel increase in inventories on the West Coast, not across  
> the
> country. The news caused gasoline futures to jump 9.5 cents to $2.326 a
> gallon on Thursday, and an additional 2.6 cents on Friday to settle at
> $2.35 a gallon. In this week's retail price report, nationwide gasoline
> prices are likely to exceed the record of $3.069 per gallon set in
> September 2005. The all-time, inflation-adjusted high of $3.22 per
gallon,
> set in March 1981, is in sight.
>
> Over the last few weeks, however, the demand for gasoline has been
dropping
> and is now just one percent above last year's demand for the same  
> period.
> This is down by about 1.5 percent from the abnormally high demand of  
> two
> months ago.
>
> The government remains optimistic that high prices will dampen demand,
> attract more gasoline imports, and encourage refiners to increase
> production. The EIA projects that although gas prices will be over $3  
> in
> May; they will drop back into the $2.90s during June and July and
possibly
> increase again in August. The EIA says flat out they do not expect gas
> prices to get anywhere near $4 so long as there are no significant
> unplanned refinery outages, losses of crude production, or hurricane
> damage.
>
> In defending the industry, an American Petroleum Institute economist  
> told
> Congress last week that high gasoline prices are largely due to high
crude
> prices and the costs of environmental mandates. He maintained that
> improvements to refineries allow the industry to squeeze more gasoline
and
> diesel from each barrel of crude so that this year's average gasoline
> production of 8.85 million b/d is a new record.
>
> Many paint a darker picture of the prospects for gasoline prices and
> availability later this summer (see this week's Commentary). The IEA is
> talking about a 1.6 million b/d shortfall between demand and production
> later this year and notes that significant drops are occurring in North
Sea
> and West African production. In March OECD stockpiles fell by 17.1
million
> barrels, or an average of 550,000 b/d. This brought the average stock
draw
> during the first quarter to what the IEA called a "dramatic" 930,000  
> b/d.
> The IEA also noted last week that "gasoline stocks are tight and may
> tighten further in June unless refinery capacity rises more sharply  
> than
> current forecasts suggest."
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
> ---
--
> ----
>
>
> That is incredible.
>
> The average of all 24 OECD countries' stockpiles over 3 months fell by
0.93
> Mb/d.
>
> In other words, supply is lagging demand by nearly a million barrels  
> per
day
>
> and they are keeping prices stable by drawing down stockpiles.
>
> This is really starting to look like we will hit the brick wall this  
> year.
>
> Dave


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