[Peakoil] From Crikey

Fri Oct 6 21:42:24 EST 2006

Here's the article:

23. Cheaper oil and free gas – doomsday postponed again

Michael Pascoe writes:

It’s getting harder for members of the peak oil doomsday cult to keep  
the faith – oil futures fell under US$59 a barrel overnight while  
natural gas prices in the UK turned negative, ie gas traders will pay  
you to take the stuff away.

Marketwatch.com summarises the oil price:

Crude-oil futures fell almost 4% (to close at $US58.68 a barrel),  
pulling the benchmark contract to its lowest level in more than a year,  
with pressure coming from swelling US inventories, a lack of risks to  
output and doubts that key oil producers will take formal action to  
reduce supplies and stem the drop in prices.

The market has "high inventories, high levels of exploration activity,  
no supply shortage, low consumption at this time of the year and no  
Gulf [of Mexico] hurricanes -- with lower chances of having one," said  
James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics. "The combination of  
these factors is consistent with prices below $50 per barrel."

More shocking to the end-of-civilisation-as-we-know-it mob must be the  
glut of natural gas in the UK. A new pipeline from Norway is delivering  
into a market whose storage facilities are 96% full. Reports the BBC:

After trading at an average of 26p a therm through September, the spot  
price for gas delivered immediately fell to -5p during the course of  
the day, meaning traders are paying to get rid of it.

Major UK energy companies may be unable to take advantage of the free  
gas because of the lack of available storage and the fact that they  
have "hedged" supplies -- protecting themselves against the risk of  
high gas prices over the winter by buying it in advance at a lower  
price.

Prices will rise in the northern winter as the new pipeline won’t  
always be running at capacity and demand increases as the temperature  
falls. It nonetheless remains a reality check after the many scary  
headlines the world has been subjected to during the oil bubble.

A broader cheap oil perspective is on offer in Newsweek with a claim  
that Chinese demand has been overstated, but the peak oil cult members  
won’t be easily converted.

Oil prices will continue to bounce around with whatever supply shocks  
come along and petrol won’t be as cheap as we were used to, but the  
doomsday scenario has never made sense – the market mechanism and our  
incredible adaptive abilities are forever underestimated. Just watch  
us.

--------------------------------------------
Keith Thomas
www.evfit.com
--------------------------------------------
On 05/10/2006, at 9:47 AM, POLLARD,Sandy wrote:

> Alex's analysis is likely to be correct. Strictly, PO theory can't  
> speak
> directly to price - just to:
> extraction > peak/plateau > depletion curves.
>
> For more enlightened commentaries on UK gas (and the recent one-off
> momentary glut, see:
>
> http://www.energybulletin.net/21114.html
>
> Given the historical record, the emotive language 'peak oil doomsday
> cult' smacks of deliberate disinformation.
>
> It may as well be 'gravity doomsday cult' - where nasty Newtonian
> theorists claim that 'what goes up must come down'.
>
> Sandy Pollard
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org
> [mailto:peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org] On
> Behalf Of Alex P
> Sent: Wednesday, October 04, 2006 7:01 PM
> To: peakoil at act-peakoil.org
> Subject: [Peakoil] From Crikey
>
> Do any Crikey subscribers have the full text? The obvious response is
> that at the top of the plateau, there is no actual shortage, just a
> greater opportunity for speculators and sellers to increase the price.
> On the way down the slope, the floor underneath prices increases
> irreversibly.
>
>
> And does Pascoe seriously think we'll get back to $30 a barrel?
>
>
> ___________________
>
> 23. Cheaper oil and free gas - doomsday postponed again
>
> Michael Pascoe writes:
>
> It's getting harder for members of the peak oil doomsday cult to keep
> the faith - oil futures fell overnight while natural gas prices in the
> UK turned negative, ie gas traders will pay you to take the stuff away.
>
> The rest of this article is for Crikey subscribers only. Subscribe now
> for instant access.
>
>
>
> Alex
> O4O4873828
>
> ACT Peak Oil
> http://act-peakoil.org
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Peakoil mailing list
> You are subscribed as sandy.pollard at dewr.gov.au
> http://act-peakoil.org/cgi-bin/mailman/options/peakoil/ 
> sandy.pollard%40d
> ewr.gov.au
>
> Notice:
> The information contained in this email message and any attached files
> may be confidential information, and may also be the subject of legal
> professional privilege. If you are not the intended recipient any use,
> disclosure or copying of this email is unauthorised. If you received
> this email in error, please notify the DEWR Service Desk and delete all
> copies of this transmission together with any attachments.
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Peakoil mailing list
> You are subscribed as keith at evfit.com
> http://act-peakoil.org/cgi-bin/mailman/options/peakoil/ 
> keith%40evfit.com
>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: not available
Type: text/enriched
Size: 5711 bytes
Desc: not available
Url : http://act-peakoil.org/pipermail/peakoil/attachments/20061006/bf396ee9/attachment.bin 