[Peakoil] Tom Waring

Fri Jun 30 16:29:00 EST 2006

News stories to back up that people are cutting back on cars, (1) Fuel prices change habits, The Age, and (2) Bicycles outsell cars in Australia again. 
Cheers
Christal

(1) Fuel prices change habits
Andra Jackson, The Age
June 20, 2006
HIGHER petrol prices are forcing motorists to use their cars less and cut back other spending so they can afford to fill their tanks.
As the average price of petrol sat at $1.38 a litre at Melbourne's suburban pumps yesterday, an ACNielsen/ Age poll found that almost half those surveyed are using their cars less because of the high prices.
In the national poll of 1425 respondents, conducted from June 15 to 17, 46 per cent said they were using their cars less, 40 per cent had reduced spending on other things and 38 per cent were thinking about switching to a more fuel-efficient car.
The survey, which coincides with the annual exodus of retired holiday-makers heading north, also found 19 per cent of those surveyed have changed their holiday plans as petrol prices eat into travel budgets.
Swan Hill Caravan Park owner Judy Dowell says travellers are planning shorter trips this year. "They are saying they won't travel quite as far … and that they have got to budget more. Maybe they will go out less while travelling because of their extra road costs."
Bookings at her 75-site park were not noticeably down, "but I think they will drop because they are all saying it is getting too expensive," she said.
At the Murray Bank Holiday Units proprietor Jenny expected bookings would drop if the price of petrol kept rising.
The pump price for super in Swan Hill yesterday was $1.42.
RACV government spokesman David Cumming said the motorists' group was waiting for reports from tourism bodies to assess the impact of higher petrol prices on school holiday travel.
"But the cost will be dramatically increased compared to 12 months ago," he said. "Just in the city, the cost of filling a tank has gone up $20 a week."
At Swan Hill Caravan Hire and Sales, Mrs Dowell's brother-in-law Ken Dowell said he believed customers were already cutting back.
"My hire is down 50 per cent on last year. The interest is just not there," he said.
He blames the impact of petrol prices, the drought and the lure of cheap airline holiday packages — such as the $99 one-way fare to fly to Queensland's Airlie Beach.
For those dreaming of travel, one option might be a holiday closer to home. A Tourism Victoria spokeswoman said hits on the organisation's website had increased by 40 per cent each month this year.

(2) Bicycles outsell cars in Australia again:
From:
http://stcwa.org.au/journal/260206/1140325055_32064.html

Australians bought more bicycles than motor vehicles in 2005, according to official figures released by the motor and bicycle industries. Bicycle sales in Australia topped 1.1 million for the fourth straight year of million-plus sales.

The Cycling Promotion Fund (CPF), Australia's peak bicycle promotional body, said bike sales for 2005 ended up 13 per cent ahead of the motor vehicles total of 988,269 - the sixth year that bikes had outsold cars.

CPF program director Rosemarie Speidel said the massive rate at which Australians bought bicycles reflected the ever-increasing popularity of cycling as a form of recreation, sport and transport. "Cycling is Australia's fourth most popular physical activity after walking, aerobics and swimming - and ahead of golf," she said.

"The Exercise Recreation and Sport Survey (ERASS) conducted by the federal and state governments shows that participation in cycling grew by 15.3% from 2001 to 2004. " By contrast, tennis declined 4.2%, netball declined 7.9% and golf remained stagnant. "We are seeing more and more people riding bikes for recreation, sport as well as everyday transport, which has to be a good thing for the health of a country where obesity is a major health concern.

"There has also been huge growth in cycling events and bicycle tourism, which helps to boost regional economies with the influx of competitors, spectators and tourists."
Ms Speidel said feedback from the bicycle industry indicated that the strong sales covered everything from everyday recreational bikes right through to high-end road and competition bicycles.

Year Motor vehicles * Bicycles ** Bikes' lead 2000 787,100 926,924 +17%
2001 772,681 774,938 +0.3 %
2002 824,309 1,109,736 +34 %
2003 909,811 1,003,844 +10 %
2004 955,229 1,247,981 +30 %
2005 988,269 1,120,337*** +13 %

    * VFACTS figures. ** Australian Customs figures. *** End-of-year

-----Original Message-----
From: peakoil-bounces+cgeorge=caer.org.au at act-peakoil.org [mailto:peakoil-bounces+cgeorge=caer.org.au at act-peakoil.org] On Behalf Of Shane S
Sent: Friday, 30 June 2006 4:15 PM
To: peakoil at act-peakoil.org
Subject: RE: [Peakoil] Tom Waring

Hey again

I like the dividing up idea but wonder what the capacity of the canberra 
times is to deal with this issue....any thoughts? How many letters will they 
run on the same topic (though two seems safe).

On referring to other authorities- good idea. To fast track things....are 
there any organisations involved that your average paper reader would 
recognise already?

Should we criticise Tom for not disclosing his professional position in his 
letter too?

Shane

>From: "POLLARD,Sandy" <Sandy.POLLARD at dewr.gov.au>
>To: "Shane S" <void_genesis at hotmail.com>, <peakoil at act-peakoil.org>
>Subject: RE: [Peakoil] Tom Waring
>Date: Fri, 30 Jun 2006 15:56:18 +1000
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>
>Well ferreted, Shane.
>
>You could also cite a number of other learned pessimists who gave
>evidence to the Senate Inquiry, Perth sessions in particular, who
>question ABARE's assumptions and reliance on well-critiqued sources like
>IEA, USGS. Link to Inquiry transcripts:
>
>http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/rrat_ctte/oil_supply/hearings/ind
>ex.htm
>
>
>Sandy Pollard
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org
>[mailto:peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org] On
>Behalf Of Shane S
>Sent: Friday, June 30, 2006 3:39 PM
>To: peakoil at act-peakoil.org
>Subject: [Peakoil] Tom Waring
>
>Hi guys
>
>I just thought to see who Tom Waring is.
>
>http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s55703.htm
>
>"According to Tom Waring, who manages Minerals Research at the
>Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics, most of
>Australia's gold is being sold for well above the spot price as it is."
>
>He brings up so many unsupported assertions it is going to be difficult
>to address them all in any substantial way.
>
>Perhaps it would be best to focus on just three things?
>
>1. The spectacular decline rates of north sea fields (~10% per year) as
>a result of "advanced extraction technology".
>
>2. The well established decline in Australian production. Regardless of
>what happens elsewhere Australia is destined to become more vulnerable
>to oil dependency.
>
>3. Does Tom seriously believe that the middle east or central africa
>could become stable "tomorrow"?
>
>4. High oil prices are already reducing car use. Public transport
>systems in Australia are experiencing sharply increased patronage.
>Rather than filling our already gridlocked cities with hydrogen cars for
>every man, woman and child we should be investing in more efficient
>public transport alternatives.
>
>Ill be happy to draft this up and send it off if no-one has any factual
>objections
>
>Shane
>
> >From: "Jenny Goldie" <jgoldie at snowy.net.au>
> >To: "ACT Peak Oil discussion Oil discussion" <peakoil at act-peakoil.org>
> >Subject: [Peakoil] feel free to reply!
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> >
> >from today's letters pages in the CT:
> >
> >Oil pessimists
> >
> >Jenny Goldie worries the world is almost out of oil, fearing it'll get
> >really expensive soon. Antony Barry is concerned Australia won't be
> >able to import crude and that Canberra will be among the hardest hit
> >(Letters, June 28). They're pessimists.
> >
> >There are reasons why the oil price could fall significantly. And
> >anyway, high crude prices won't stop car use.
> >
> >In addition to sustained, strong global (especially Chinese/Indian)
> >demand, oil's high price includes premiums for confrontation with Iran,
>
> >chaos in Iraq and instability in several other supply countries. Any of
>
> >that could change tomorrow.
> >
> >For example, sharemarkets are jittery right now about a possible
> >US/global slowdown. Oil demand would follow. But it's on the supply
> >side that the big responses can be predicted.
> >
> >Until fairly recently, oil was expected to keep on averaging around
> >$US25-a-barrel ($A34). We are yet to see the impact of sustained
> >$US50-plus-a-barrel ($A68) prices on global production.
> >
> >In addition to rendering viable tar sands, shale, gas/coal-to-liquids,
> >etc options, high prices have seen rapid application of technological
> >advances in exploration and well recovery, every drilling rig in the
> >world working and every Russian, Central Asian, deeper-water,
> >smaller-field option being diligently investigated. Supply will rise
>substantially.
> >
> >Simultaneously, with increasing confidence that $50-oil is here to stay
>
> >and reduced fuel security comes accelerated fuel substitution.
> >
> >Canberra's new cars will be much more fuel efficient. Increasing
> >numbers will use electricity and hydrogen/fuel cells. All manufacturers
>
> >have them ready now.
> >
> >Jenny, Antony and others will buy them. Canberra needs to plan the
> >infrastructure for them.
> >
> >Tom Waring, Ainslie
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> >_______________________________________________
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>
>
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