[Peakoil] Tom Waring

Fri Jun 30 16:14:39 EST 2006

Hey again

I like the dividing up idea but wonder what the capacity of the canberra 
times is to deal with this issue....any thoughts? How many letters will they 
run on the same topic (though two seems safe).

On referring to other authorities- good idea. To fast track things....are 
there any organisations involved that your average paper reader would 
recognise already?

Should we criticise Tom for not disclosing his professional position in his 
letter too?

Shane

>From: "POLLARD,Sandy" <Sandy.POLLARD at dewr.gov.au>
>To: "Shane S" <void_genesis at hotmail.com>, <peakoil at act-peakoil.org>
>Subject: RE: [Peakoil] Tom Waring
>Date: Fri, 30 Jun 2006 15:56:18 +1000
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>Well ferreted, Shane.
>
>You could also cite a number of other learned pessimists who gave
>evidence to the Senate Inquiry, Perth sessions in particular, who
>question ABARE's assumptions and reliance on well-critiqued sources like
>IEA, USGS. Link to Inquiry transcripts:
>
>http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/rrat_ctte/oil_supply/hearings/ind
>ex.htm
>
>
>Sandy Pollard
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org
>[mailto:peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org] On
>Behalf Of Shane S
>Sent: Friday, June 30, 2006 3:39 PM
>To: peakoil at act-peakoil.org
>Subject: [Peakoil] Tom Waring
>
>Hi guys
>
>I just thought to see who Tom Waring is.
>
>http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s55703.htm
>
>"According to Tom Waring, who manages Minerals Research at the
>Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics, most of
>Australia's gold is being sold for well above the spot price as it is."
>
>He brings up so many unsupported assertions it is going to be difficult
>to address them all in any substantial way.
>
>Perhaps it would be best to focus on just three things?
>
>1. The spectacular decline rates of north sea fields (~10% per year) as
>a result of "advanced extraction technology".
>
>2. The well established decline in Australian production. Regardless of
>what happens elsewhere Australia is destined to become more vulnerable
>to oil dependency.
>
>3. Does Tom seriously believe that the middle east or central africa
>could become stable "tomorrow"?
>
>4. High oil prices are already reducing car use. Public transport
>systems in Australia are experiencing sharply increased patronage.
>Rather than filling our already gridlocked cities with hydrogen cars for
>every man, woman and child we should be investing in more efficient
>public transport alternatives.
>
>Ill be happy to draft this up and send it off if no-one has any factual
>objections
>
>Shane
>
> >From: "Jenny Goldie" <jgoldie at snowy.net.au>
> >To: "ACT Peak Oil discussion Oil discussion" <peakoil at act-peakoil.org>
> >Subject: [Peakoil] feel free to reply!
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> >
> >from today's letters pages in the CT:
> >
> >Oil pessimists
> >
> >Jenny Goldie worries the world is almost out of oil, fearing it'll get
> >really expensive soon. Antony Barry is concerned Australia won't be
> >able to import crude and that Canberra will be among the hardest hit
> >(Letters, June 28). They're pessimists.
> >
> >There are reasons why the oil price could fall significantly. And
> >anyway, high crude prices won't stop car use.
> >
> >In addition to sustained, strong global (especially Chinese/Indian)
> >demand, oil's high price includes premiums for confrontation with Iran,
>
> >chaos in Iraq and instability in several other supply countries. Any of
>
> >that could change tomorrow.
> >
> >For example, sharemarkets are jittery right now about a possible
> >US/global slowdown. Oil demand would follow. But it's on the supply
> >side that the big responses can be predicted.
> >
> >Until fairly recently, oil was expected to keep on averaging around
> >$US25-a-barrel ($A34). We are yet to see the impact of sustained
> >$US50-plus-a-barrel ($A68) prices on global production.
> >
> >In addition to rendering viable tar sands, shale, gas/coal-to-liquids,
> >etc options, high prices have seen rapid application of technological
> >advances in exploration and well recovery, every drilling rig in the
> >world working and every Russian, Central Asian, deeper-water,
> >smaller-field option being diligently investigated. Supply will rise
>substantially.
> >
> >Simultaneously, with increasing confidence that $50-oil is here to stay
>
> >and reduced fuel security comes accelerated fuel substitution.
> >
> >Canberra's new cars will be much more fuel efficient. Increasing
> >numbers will use electricity and hydrogen/fuel cells. All manufacturers
>
> >have them ready now.
> >
> >Jenny, Antony and others will buy them. Canberra needs to plan the
> >infrastructure for them.
> >
> >Tom Waring, Ainslie
> >
> >
> >
>
>
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