[Peakoil] Oil Futures

[Keith Thomas]

On 11/08/2006, at 1:48 PM, Robert Wiblin wrote:

> I've just been looking at the oil futures market. If oil is really
> likely to hit $100 or $200 soon, why are oil companies willing to
> deliver oil for any times in the next five years for under $80? Surely
> if anyone knows the details of the oil market it is the companies with
> all of the inside information. Yet they seem confident enough to sell
> you a barrel of oil now, but delivered in 2011, for around $70. Can
> they really be so mislead about their own position and market?
>
> http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=CL
>
> If famous peak oilers really believe oil will be that high, why not
> put their money out there and make a fortune when their oil arrives
> and they can sell it for double?
>
> Interested to hear the response as I have been unable to answer this.
>
> -- 
> Robert Wiblin
> robertwiblin at gmail.com
> Ph: 0401242877
> Burgmann College, ANU

I'd guess this is how Matt Simmons made his millions. It's also my 
guess that lots of others are doing the same. Considering the high oil 
input in agricultural products, many will - for the same reason - be 
investing in wheat (etc.) futures as well Do you have any evidence that 
they are not?

Some peakists predict a degree of economic collapse; for these people 
investing in any sort of futures for, say, 2011, is also betting on the 
stability of the world economic system and the ability to enforce 
contracts in 2011.

These are just my observations - interested to hear the views of 
others: Alex? Antony? Leigh?
--------------------------------------------
Keith Thomas
www.evfit.com
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