[Peakoil] Fwd: [roeoz] ASPO workshop,
Media coverage. Sustainable Transport Coalition
Alex P
alex-po at trevbus.org
Fri Jul 1 10:18:33 EST 2005
Links and news from the PErth Sustainable Transport Coalition
Alex
------------- Forwarded message follows -------------
A note from the Sustainable Transport Coalition as my first post to the
very active and entertaining ROEOZ list.
Perhaps as a result of suggestions and news releases we put to the local
paper last week, "the West" has today printed a good article on peak oil,
in a prominent position, on the editorial page, just below the day's
political cartoon
"The vanishing mirage of Saudi Arabian oil", in today's West Australian is
a reprint of an article by Michael Klare from the Los Angeles Times of 27th
June at
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-oe-
klare27jun27,1,538410.story?ctrack=1&cset=true
It recounts the thesis advanced by Matthew Simmons, amongst others, that
the Saudis have been unreasonably optimistic with their claims for reserves
and future production capacity.
I am still very intererested to learn if any other Australian paper runs
the story, please. It seems the West is a bit ahead of the pack in running
overseas stories about oil depletion.
While on the topic, in case people have not seen it, The STC Australian
paper to the International Workshop on Oil Depletion in Lisbon is available
at the conference website
www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abstracts.php overall conference proceedings and
papers www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/Abstract_Lisbon_Robinson.pdf Our
abstract "The impact of oil depletion on Australia"
www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/ASPO2005_Robinson.ppt Our presentation,
caution: 9MB.
I recommend, inter alia, the papers by Hirsch, Campbell, Simmons, Heinberg,
(and the Volvo speaker, Wilkrans, on alternative fuels for heavy vehicles).
Also links via ASPO (at www.PeakOil.net) Association for the Study of Peak
Oil & Gas
In my view, there is now about equal probability that the "depletionists"
will be proven correct; ie, that global oil production will plateau and
begin its final decline in the short term (2-5 years), or that the business
as usual market-force optimists will be shown correct, and there will be
enough oil to go round for another 20 years or so.
Perhaps I would rate it 55% (+/- 20%) that the depletionists are roughly
correct, and 45% (+/- 20%) that the optimists will be shown to be correct.
I use the concept of probabilities, to show I am not certain, and to avoid
being considered too extremist or self-confident/evangelical. It is also
clear that no-one can be certain, with the poor available data on oil
production and reserves. Peak Oil may well be further out than we think,
and/or demand may fall for some reason. It is all impossible to predict
with any certainty.
At the recent APPEA conference in Perth, the biggest oil industry
conference in Australia, a straw poll conducted by a keynote speaker
returned results that of those who ventured an opinion (of some 1,000 oil
professionals present), about 50% thought we are at Peak Oil, and about
50%, or marginally more thought we were not yet at Peak. These are real
geologists and engineers, not greenies. APPEA is the Australian Petroleum
Production and Exploration Association, the oil industry advocate body.
Every government should have a "Plan B", to cover the likelihood that the
economists are incorrect, just as those were who were stalwartly
advocating "Buy" in the final days of Enron and HIH, for instance.
At the moment, no Australian government has any significant plans, let
alone implementation for the likelihood of serious on-going oil shortages.
See the STC submission to the Liquid Fuels Emergency Act review at
http://www.aciltasman.com.au/clients/LFE/Submissions/STC%20submission-sl.pdf
There is some good data in the LFE discussion paper to which we were
responding. Submissions like these, and contacts with the media all help.
There are lots of opportunities for Australia and Australians to benefit
enormously from forewarning about peak oil, and the more we do to raise the
level of awareness the better. Many of the ways of reducing our Oil
Vulnerability are "no-regrets" options and will result in happier healthier
communities, so Peak Oil need not be seen as apocalyptic, if we prepare in
advance.
If there is a short-term emergency, for instance a revolution in Saudi
Arabia, there is no way that Australian public transport could take
something modest like 25% of existing car trips. The peak capacity of our
train and bus systems is already stretched, so there is no way that 3 times
as many people could travel by public transport in our cities.
It would take years to get more buses (especially if everyone else in the
world was trying to buy more buses at the same time). Extra trains are even
slower to build, and Melbourne and Sydney urban rail is, I understand,
constrained by limitations of the rail system, so there is no time/room to
add more trains anyway without adding lines and changing the systems, which
will be slow and disruptive.
The only personal vehicle transport mode with spare available rolling
stock, and spare "permanent way" capacity in the event of a sudden oil
shock is bicycle transport. There are lots of bikes unused in sheds, and if
there is not enough fuel to go round, there will be more road space for
bikes, and probably lower speed limits, and even car-lanes set aside for
bikes. The cover of Alan Parker's 1977 work, "Safe Cycling" has a cartoon
of a freeway, with lots of bikes and a single dedicated car lane. It would
not be unreasonable to dedicate some freeway car lanes to bikes in the
event of a serious oil emergency. NOSEC, the Federal National Oil Supply
Emergency Committee should be looking into these things, but I suspect it
is not, for one reason or another.
Comments on the Australian ASPO paper would be welcome, direct to me
please, or to the list only if you really think others would be interested
in the detail. Clearly the paper needs to be updated, and improved and
promoted, and supplanted by others with better ideas and more clearly
written.
BTW: With regards to the importance of the media, and contacting the
Courier Mail and Four Corners, I suggest people read Les Magoon's USGS
poster of mid 2000, "Are we running out of oil". I think Les' poster is a
very clever means of communication, still. Les suggests the first thing to
do, when one realises what the Big Rollover is, is to "Talk about it, talk
about it, talk about it". I have been following his advice. Those who
missed his 2001 lecture tour of Oz, could perhaps look at his poster at
least. There is also a link to a short official article on Les' Oz tour at
www.energiekrise.de, and some other things of interest.
Magoon, L B (2000) Are we running out of oil? US Geological Survey summary
poster http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/open-file/of00-320/.
http://stcwa.org.au/BO2/ATRF-OilDepletion.pdf
Our paper to the Australasian Transport Research Forum is at the link
above, and I presume people have seen the BTRE (Bureau of Transport and
Regional Economics) paper at
http://www.btre.gov.au/docs/workingpapers/wp61/wp61.pdf
Lyn Martin gave her paper in the same session as ours in Adelaide in
September 2004, and her working paper 61, "Are we running out of oil" is an
updated version of her ATRF paper..
Please keep informing people, especially decision-makers directly and
through the media. Perhaps people can ask why the West Australian is the
first in Oz to run Michael Klare's article about Simmons' book. BTW:
Simmons was interviewed by Terry Lane on ABC/RN/National Interest almost
two weeks ago. The audio is still available on the ABC/RN website.
Perhaps this was posted prior to my joining.
I wish the ROEOZ list all the best. It is a bit hard for me to keep up
with the pace of the posts, and the very broad range of topics, some of
which are a fair way from Peak Oil, which is my area of interest.
Regards,
Bruce
Bruce Robinson
Sustainable Transport Coalition
2 Barsden St, Cottesloe WA 6011
61-8-9384-7409
www.STCwa.org.au
and www.STCwa.org.au/beyondoil
Send instant messages to your online friends http://au.messenger.yahoo.com
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