[Peakoil] A couple of useful resources

[Keith Thomas]

While researching to compile the peak oil web page at www.natsoc.org.au 
(which itself exists as a reference for the one-page peak oil primer 
downloadable from the same site), I came across many items that I found 
useful in imagining the early stages of an 'orderly transition' (to use 
Paul Thompson's phrase).

I'd like to bring two of these to your attention.

One is the report compiled for a Canadian government of the September 
2000 fuel blockade in the UK. The fuel blockade lasted for just a week, 
but rationing was introduced (the report lists the organizations given 
priority for fuel). Possibly the greatest disruption came from the 
reliance of manufacturing, retail and service industries on 
'just-in-time' inventory control.  Just-in-time relies on complex 
computer networks, barcoding and the assumption that transport costs 
are trivial.  It was introduced in the 1980s and 1990s and enabled the 
elimination of warehouse staff and the sell-off of warehouses. Prior to 
just-in-time, shops had a storeroom 'out the back' or a warehouse in a 
low-rent suburb which backed up the inner city shop. Now smaller 
businesses rely on overnight courier services and the supermarkets 
receive truckloads of goods from suppliers overnight that are unloaded 
and stacked on the shelves in the very early morning. Shops hold just a 
few days supply of goods 'out the back'; for some lines, ALL the stock 
is on the shelves.

The service sector depends on just-in-time as well. In the UK, one of 
the earliest exposures in the National Health Service appeared in 
hospital laundry.  This is run on a just-in-time basis with a small 
supply of clean bedding in the hospital, a laundry in a low rent outer 
suburb and vans carrying the soiled and washed linen back and forth 
daily. A number of hospitals were running out of clean bedding within 
three days of the blockade beginning.

The report on the UK blockade brings out the interdependencies of oil, 
electricity and information flows.  Resolving blackouts, for instance, 
depends on rapid communication and the prompt despatch of repair crews 
in their trucks. Armoured vehicle services are needed to shift coins 
and banknotes throughout the day.

The second item is quite different: David Holmgren's 52-minute video 
interview recorded last month. He ranges more widely than permaculture 
and peak oil into nitrogen fertilizers; 'food security' being accepted 
by governments 50 years ago as one of their key responsibilities; 
sensitivity of crops to climate shifts (c.f. gradual climate change) – 
Australian farmers being more accustomed to this than farmers 
elsewhere; human population decline, the shape it may take and how we 
should or should not plan for it; role of women.

Links to both these and much else is at the Nature and Society Forum 
website
http://www.natsoc.org.au

--------------------------------------------
Keith Thomas
www.evfit.com
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