[Peakoil] FW: Peak Oil - US Dept of Energy report

[Adrian Whitehead]

Have we seen this one before?

  _____  

From: Mike Smith [mailto:mikesmith at iimetro.com.au] 
Sent: Wednesday, 3 August 2005 5:48 PM
To: Adrian Whitehead
Subject: Fw: Peak Oil - US Dept of Energy report


 
----- Original Message ----- 
From: Alan  <mailto:alanpar at labyrinth.net.au> Parker 
To: greenleap at yahoogroups.com 
Sent: Wednesday, August 03, 2005 1:47 PM
Subject: [greenleap] Downloadable US Govt report on Peak Oil: & review
article

Hi all,
Review below of the Hirsch Report US Department of Energy is one of the most
important reports ever produced. Now is the time for the environment
movement to prepare a strong case for encouraging energy conservation to
reduce the demand for oil. The following describes why reducing the demand
for oil should become a top priority sometime in 2006. Is any body
interested in publishing this report in Australia?

Bye alan

Published on Sunday, July 31, 2005 by Global Public Media
Where Is the Hirsch Report?
By Richard Heinberg 
Over the past few months controversy has raged over the timing of Peak
Oil-the moment when global oil production will reach its all-time maximum
and begin its inevitable descent. Oil optimists say the event won't occur
for twenty years or more, and that market forces will result in an
imperceptible transition to alternative forms of energy. "The Stone Age
didn't end for lack of stones," say the optimists, "and the Petroleum Age
won't end because we run out of oil"-but because we find something better
and cheaper with which to fuel our society. Pessimists point out that global
oil discoveries have been plummeting for decades and that supply and demand
are now closely matched (hence the run-up in oil prices over the past few
months); moreover, there simply isn't an alternative energy source available
that can take oil's place in the near term. They say we may be at peak now,
and that the consequences will be staggering.

In short, oil pessimists spin out end-of-civilization scenarios while
optimists insist that there is nothing to worry about. Evidently the US
Department of Energy is interested enough in the Peak-Oil debate to
commission a report on the subject. Released in February this year by
Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and titled "Peaking
of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management," the
report examines the likely consequences of the impending global peak. It was
authored principally by Robert L. Hirsch (bio:
www.d-n-i.net/fcs/hirsch_bio.htm), and is as remarkable for its subsequent
reception as for its content.

The report's Executive Summary begins with the following paragraph:
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an
unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel
prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely
mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.
Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to
have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in
advance of peaking

The report's authors were not asked to assess when the global peak is likely
to occur; however they do survey the range of forecasts from optimists and
pessimists alike, projecting a peak date anywhere from 2005 to 2037.

The Hirsch report examines three scenarios: one in which mitigation efforts
are not undertaken until global oil production peaks; a second in which
efforts commence ten years in advance of peak; and a third in which efforts
begin twenty years prior to the peak. Each scenario assumes a "crash program
rate of implementation." In the first case, the study concludes that peak
will leave the world with a "significant liquid fuels deficit for more than
two decades" that "will almost certainly cause major economic upheaval";
even with a ten-year lead time for mitigation efforts government
intervention will be required and the world will experience a ten-year fuel
shortfall. A crash program initiated twenty years ahead of the event will
offer "the possibility" of avoiding a fuel shortfall. The report emphasizes
repeatedly that both supply- and demand-side mitigation options will take
many years to implement and will cost "literally trillions of dollars"; it
also notes that "the world has never faced a problem like this."

The Hirsch report concludes that substantial mitigation of the economic,
social, and political impacts of Peak Oil can come only from efforts both to
increase energy supplies from alternative sources and to reduce demand for
oil. With regard to the claim that efficiency measures by themselves will be
enough to forestall dire impacts, Hirsch et al. note that, "While greater
end-use efficiency is essential, increased efficiency alone will be neither
sufficient nor timely enough to solve the problem. Production of large
amounts of substitute liquid fuels will be required." Further, "Mitigation
will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort, because the
scale of liquid fuels mitigation is inherently extremely large." Hirsch, et
al., also point out that "The problems associated with world oil production
peaking will not be temporary, and past 'energy crisis' experience will
provide relatively little guidance."

Oil optimists often say that efforts aimed at mitigating the effects of Peak
Oil undertaken too soon would entail a cost to society. The SAIC report
agrees. However, it concludes that, "If peaking is imminent, failure to
initiate timely mitigation could be extremely damaging. Prudent risk
management requires the planning and implementation of mitigation well
before peaking. Early mitigation will almost certainly be less expensive
than delayed mitigation."

Optimists also insist that the market can take care of the problem: high oil
prices will stimulate more exploration, the development of more efficient
cars, and the deployment of alternative energy technologies. Interference
with market mechanisms would be harmful, they say, and so the government
should steer clear of the problem by avoiding setting higher efficiency
standards, subsidizing renewables, and so on. 

The report's authors dismiss these claims. Price signals warn only of
immediate scarcity; however, the mitigation efforts needed in order to
prepare for the global oil production peak must be undertaken many years in
advance of the event. Hirsch, et al., maintain that, "Intervention by
governments will be required, because the economic and social implications
of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic. The experiences of the 1970s and
1980s offer important guides as to government actions that are desirable and
those that are undesirable, but the process will not be easy."

Here, then, is a significant report produced by an independent research
company for the US Department of Energy, warning of a global problem of
"unprecedented" proportions with economic, social, and political impacts
that are likely to be extremely severe. The authors forecast "protracted
economic hardship" for the United States and the rest of the world. It is a
problem that deserves "immediate, serious attention." 

Yet, half a year after release, discussion of the Hirsch report is
conspicuously absent from the press and the halls of Congress. For months it
has been archived, in PDF format, on a high school web site
(www.hilltoplancers.org, Hilltop High School in Chula Vista, Calif.). It now
can be found on a few other sites as well (including www.energybulletin.net
and www.projectcensored.org)-but why must citizens search for an important
government-sponsored report on private web sites?

If the content of the Hirsch report is to be believed-and there is every
reason to think it should be-then this is a document that deserves the close
attention of every leader of government and industry in the US. Newspapers
and newsmagazines should be running excerpts and summaries. Instead, there
is nearly total silence. In late May Robert Hirsch presented the substance
of the report at the annual Workshop of the Association for the Study of
Peak Oil (ASPO) in Lisbon, Portugal to an audience of about 300 
(www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/Abstract_Lisbon_Hirsch.pdf ). 
That event received virtually no press coverage in the US. 

The Atlantic Council (www.acus.org) is considering publishing the Hirsch
report, however there is no projected date of publication. When contacted,
Dr. Hirsch replied that the document is "a public report, paid for and
released by DOE NETL," and that it therefore can be reposted "at will."
Meanwhile oil is hovering around $60 and is likely to head higher, and
analysts look to the fourth quarter of 2005 unsure whether supply will be
able to keep up with burgeoning demand. 
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