<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2900.2668" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=546271505-04082005>Have we seen this one before?</SPAN></FONT></DIV><BR>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader lang=en-us dir=ltr align=left>
<HR tabIndex=-1>
<FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>From:</B> Mike Smith
[mailto:mikesmith@iimetro.com.au] <BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 3 August 2005 5:48
PM<BR><B>To:</B> Adrian Whitehead<BR><B>Subject:</B> Fw: Peak Oil - US Dept of
Energy report<BR></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
title=alanpar@labyrinth.net.au href="mailto:alanpar@labyrinth.net.au">Alan
Parker</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=greenleap@yahoogroups.com
href="mailto:greenleap@yahoogroups.com">greenleap@yahoogroups.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 03, 2005 1:47 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> [greenleap] Downloadable US Govt report on Peak Oil: &
review article</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Hi all,<?p><BR><?bigger>Review below of the Hirsch Report US
Department of Energy is one of the most important reports ever produced. <?fontfamily><?param Arial>Now is the time for the environment movement to
prepare a strong case for encouraging energy conservation to reduce the demand
for oil. The following describes why reducing the demand for oil should become a
top priority sometime in 2006. Is any body interested in publishing this report
in Australia?<?/fontfamily><?/bigger><?fontfamily><?param Arial><BR><?/fontfamily><?bigger><BR>Bye
alan<BR><BR><I><?fontfamily><?param Arial>Published on Sunday, July 31, 2005 by
Global Public Media<BR><?/fontfamily></I><B><?fontfamily><?param Georgia><?bigger><?bigger><?bigger><?bigger><?bigger>Where
Is the Hirsch Report?<BR><?/bigger><?/bigger><?/bigger><?/bigger><?/bigger><?/fontfamily><?fontfamily><?param Arial>By
Richard Heinberg<?/fontfamily></B><?fontfamily><?param Arial> <BR>Over the past
few months controversy has raged over the timing of Peak Oil-the moment when
global oil production will reach its all-time maximum and begin its inevitable
descent. Oil optimists say the event won’t occur for twenty years or more, and
that market forces will result in an imperceptible transition to alternative
forms of energy. “The Stone Age didn’t end for lack of stones,” say the
optimists, “and the Petroleum Age won’t end because we run out of oil”-but
because we find something better and cheaper with which to fuel our society.
Pessimists point out that global oil discoveries have been plummeting for
decades and that supply and demand are now closely matched (hence the run-up in
oil prices over the past few months); moreover, there simply isn’t an
alternative energy source available that can take oil’s place in the near term.
They say we may be at peak now, and that the consequences will be
staggering.<BR><BR>In short, oil pessimists spin out end-of-civilization
scenarios while optimists insist that there is nothing to worry about. Evidently
the US Department of Energy is interested enough in the Peak-Oil debate to
commission a report on the subject. Released in February this year by Science
Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and titled “Peaking of World Oil
Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management,” the report examines the
likely consequences of the impending global peak. It was authored principally by
Robert L. Hirsch (bio:
<?color><?param 0000,0000,EEED>www.d-n-i.net/fcs/hirsch_bio.htm<?/color>), and
is as remarkable for its subsequent reception as for its content.<BR><BR>The
report’s Executive Summary begins with the following paragraph:<BR>The peaking
of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an<BR>unprecedented
risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price
volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the
economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation
options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial
impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of
peaking<BR><BR>The report’s authors were not asked to assess when the global
peak is likely to occur; however they do survey the range of forecasts from
optimists and pessimists alike, projecting a peak date anywhere from 2005 to
2037.<BR><BR>The Hirsch report examines three scenarios: one in which mitigation
efforts are not undertaken until global oil production peaks; a second in which
efforts commence ten years in advance of peak; and a third in which efforts
begin twenty years prior to the peak. Each scenario assumes a “crash program
rate of implementation.” In the first case, the study concludes that peak will
leave the world with a “significant liquid fuels deficit for more than two
decades” that “will almost certainly cause major economic upheaval”; even with a
ten-year lead time for mitigation efforts government intervention will be
required and the world will experience a ten-year fuel shortfall. A crash
program initiated twenty years ahead of the event will offer “the possibility”
of avoiding a fuel shortfall. The report emphasizes repeatedly that both supply-
and demand-side mitigation options will take many years to implement and will
cost “literally trillions of dollars”; it also notes that “the world has never
faced a problem like this.”<BR><BR>The Hirsch report concludes that substantial
mitigation of the economic, social, and political impacts of Peak Oil can come
only from efforts both to increase energy supplies from alternative sources and
to reduce demand for oil. With regard to the claim that efficiency measures by
themselves will be enough to forestall dire impacts, Hirsch et al. note that,
“While greater end-use efficiency is essential, increased efficiency alone will
be neither sufficient nor timely enough to solve the problem. Production of
large amounts of substitute liquid fuels will be required.” Further, “Mitigation
will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort, because the
scale of liquid fuels mitigation is inherently extremely large.” Hirsch, et al.,
also point out that “The problems associated with world oil production peaking
will not be temporary, and past ‘energy crisis’ experience will provide
relatively little guidance.”<BR><BR>Oil optimists often say that efforts aimed
at mitigating the effects of Peak Oil undertaken too soon would entail a cost to
society. The SAIC report agrees. However, it concludes that, “If peaking is
imminent, failure to initiate timely mitigation could be extremely damaging.
Prudent risk management requires the planning and implementation of mitigation
well before peaking. Early mitigation will almost certainly be less expensive
than delayed mitigation.”<BR><BR>Optimists also insist that the market can take
care of the problem: high oil prices will stimulate more exploration, the
development of more efficient cars, and the deployment of alternative energy
technologies. Interference with market mechanisms would be harmful, they say,
and so the government should steer clear of the problem by avoiding setting
higher efficiency standards, subsidizing renewables, and so on. <BR><BR>The
report’s authors dismiss these claims. Price signals warn only of immediate
scarcity; however, the mitigation efforts needed in order to prepare for the
global oil production peak must be undertaken many years in advance of the
event. Hirsch, et al., maintain that, “Intervention by governments will be
required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would
otherwise be chaotic. The experiences of the 1970s and 1980s offer important
guides as to government actions that are desirable and those that are
undesirable, but the process will not be easy.”<BR><BR>Here, then, is a
significant report produced by an independent research company for the US
Department of Energy, warning of a global problem of “unprecedented” proportions
with economic, social, and political impacts that are likely to be extremely
severe. The authors forecast “protracted economic hardship” for the United
States and the rest of the world. It is a problem that deserves “immediate,
serious attention.” <BR><BR>Yet, half a year after release, discussion of the
Hirsch report is conspicuously absent from the press and the halls of Congress.
For months it has been archived, in PDF format, on a high school web site (<?color><?param 0000,0000,EEED>www.hilltoplancers.org<?/color>, Hilltop High
School in Chula Vista, Calif.). It now can be found on a few other sites as well
(including <?color><?param 0000,0000,EEED>www.energybulletin.net<?/color> and <?color><?param 0000,0000,EEED>www.projectcensored.org<?/color>)-but why must
citizens search for an important government-sponsored report on private web
sites?<BR><BR>If the content of the Hirsch report is to be believed-and there is
every reason to think it should be-then this is a document that deserves the
close attention of every leader of government and industry in the US. Newspapers
and newsmagazines should be running excerpts and summaries. Instead, there is
nearly total silence. In late May Robert Hirsch presented the substance of the
report at the annual Workshop of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil
(ASPO) in Lisbon, Portugal to an audience of about 300 <BR>(<?color><?param 0000,0000,EEED>www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/Abstract_Lisbon_Hirsch.pdf<?/color>
). <BR>That event received virtually no press coverage in the US. <BR><BR>The
Atlantic Council (<?color><?param 0000,0000,EEED>www.acus.org<?/color>) is
considering publishing the Hirsch report, however there is no projected date of
publication. When contacted, Dr. Hirsch replied that the document is “a public
report, paid for and released by DOE NETL,” and that it therefore can be
reposted “at will.” Meanwhile oil is hovering around $60 and is likely to head
higher, and analysts look to the fourth quarter of 2005 unsure whether supply
will be able to keep up with burgeoning demand.<?/fontfamily><?/bigger>
</BODY></HTML>