[Peakoil-announce] BTRE seminar 18 November Canberra: Bent Flyvbjerg on Errors in Transport Planning and Policy

[Magarey Paul]

Classification: UNCLASSIFIED 

I believe this guy is quite conservative, but worth going to if you can
make it.
 
 
 Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics Seminar
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You are invited to attend a seminar featuring the well-known Danish
researcher, Bent Flyvbjerg (probably pronounced 'Flu-bair'). One of his
most recent works is Megaprojects and Risk: an Anatomy of Ambition
quantified inaccuracy in transportation policy and planning. On the
basis of extensive international research, Flyvbjerg  concluded that:

- for the 70-year period for which cost data are available, accuracy in
cost forecasts has not improved;

- costs are underestimated in 9 out of 10 transportation infrastructure
projects;

- in transportation policy and planning, underestimation in cost
forecasting is on average 44.7% for rail, 33.8% for bridges and tunnels
and 20.4% for roads;

 - some cost underestimation cannot be explained by error and seems to
be best explained using Flyvbjerg's label of 'strategic
misrepresentation'.

 

Flyvbjerg has two decades of practical experience working as a policy
and planning adviser and consultant to more than 30 public and private
organizations, including the EU Commission, the United Nations, national
and local government, auditors general, and private companies. For more
details on Flyvbjerg see http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/
<http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/> 

 

Flyvbjerg's latest research involves the development of a promising new
approach to mitigating inaccuracy, with particular application to
transport planning. 

 

 

Location:             Pilgrim House, 69 Northbourne Ave, Canberra 
Time and date:     18 November 11 am 
RSVP:                  l <blocked::mailto:lynnette.philip at dotars.gov.au>
ynnette.philip at dotars.gov.au
<blocked::mailto:lynnette.philip at dotars.gov.au>   
 
Note that seating capacity is limited. While we do not expect this to be
a problem, early notification of attendance is advised.
 
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