<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML xmlns:o = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1523" name=GENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY><FONT face=Agency color=#000000 size=2 FB><B>Classification:
</B>UNCLASSIFIED</FONT>
<P>
<DIV align=left><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080><SPAN
class=646262206-02112005><SPAN class=941543305-10112005><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>I believe this guy is quite conservative, but worth going
to if you can make it.</FONT></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=left><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080><SPAN
class=646262206-02112005><SPAN
class=941543305-10112005></SPAN></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV align=left><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080><SPAN
class=646262206-02112005><SPAN
class=941543305-10112005></SPAN></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV align=center><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080><SPAN
class=646262206-02112005><SPAN class=941543305-10112005> </SPAN>Bureau of
Transport and Regional Economics Seminar</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080><SPAN
class=646262206-02112005>*****************************************************************************************************************************************</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2>You are invited to
attend a seminar featuring the <SPAN
class=646262206-02112005>well-known</SPAN> Danish researcher, <FONT
color=#0000ff>Bent Flyvbjerg</FONT> (<SPAN class=646262206-02112005>probably
</SPAN>pronounced <SPAN class=646262206-02112005>'</SPAN>Flu-bair<SPAN
class=646262206-02112005>'</SPAN>)<SPAN class=646262206-02112005>. One of his
most recent works is</SPAN><SPAN class=646262206-02112005><EM> Megaprojects and
Risk: an Anatomy of Ambition </EM>quantified </SPAN></FONT><FONT
size=2>inaccuracy in transportation policy and planning. On the basis of
extensive international research, Flyvbjerg <SPAN class=646262206-02112005>
</SPAN>concluded that:<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2>- for the 70-year
period for which cost data are available, accuracy in cost forecasts has not
improved;<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2>- costs are
underestimated in 9 out of 10 transportation infrastructure
projects;<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2>- in transportation
policy and planning, underestimation in cost forecasting is on average 44.7% for
rail, 33.8% for bridges and tunnels and 20.4% for roads;<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>- some cost underestimation cannot be
explained by error and seems to be best explained using Flyvbjerg's label of
'strategic misrepresentation'<SPAN class=306304405-02112005>.</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT color=#000000
size=2></FONT></o:p> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2>Flyvbjerg has two
decades of practical experience working as a policy and planning adviser and
consultant to more than 30 public and private organizations, including the EU
Commission, the United Nations, national and local government, auditors general,
and private companies.<SPAN class=646262206-02112005> <SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT size=2>For more details on Flyvbjerg see
</FONT><A
title="blocked::http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/ http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/"
href="http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/"><FONT
title=blocked::http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/
size=2>http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/</FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2></FONT> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2>Flyvbjerg's
latest <SPAN class=306304405-02112005>research</SPAN> involves <SPAN
class=306304405-02112005>the development of </SPAN>a promising new approach to
mitigating inaccuracy, with particular application to transport planning.
<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT
size=2> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT
face="Comic Sans MS" size=2></FONT> </P>
<DIV align=left><SPAN class=135012704-01112005><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"
size=2>Location:
Pilgrim House, 69 Northbourne Ave, Canberra </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV align=left><SPAN class=135012704-01112005><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"
size=2>Time and date: 18 November <SPAN
class=159272006-01112005>11</SPAN> am </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV align=left><SPAN class=135012704-01112005><FONT color=#000080><FONT
face="Comic Sans MS"><FONT
size=2>RSVP: <SPAN
class=293580006-01112005><FONT color=#0000ff><A
title="blocked::mailto:lynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au mailto:lynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au mailto:lynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au "
href="blocked::mailto:lynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au">l</FONT></SPAN></FONT></FONT><A
title="blocked::mailto:lynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au mailto:lynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au"
href="blocked::mailto:lynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au"><FONT
title="blocked::mailto:lynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au mailto:lynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au"
face="Comic Sans MS"><FONT
title="blocked::mailto:lynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au mailto:lynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au"
size=2>ynnette.philip@dotars.gov.au</FONT></A></FONT></A><SPAN
class=293580006-01112005><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT size=2><FONT
face="Comic Sans MS"> </FONT></A><FONT
face="Comic Sans MS"> </FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></DIV></SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080 size=2>Note that seating capacity
is limited. <SPAN class=646262206-02112005>While</SPAN> we do not expect
this to be a problem, early notification of attendance is advised.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=306304405-02112005><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"
color=#000080>*****************************************************************************************************************************************</FONT></SPAN></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>