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<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial><FONT size=3>See </FONT><A
href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=aajwdndab&et=1104583184456&s=1254&e=001PebS19YYUKv49SurXyKuOMv6RPzfg8XeTRRwIMFBcQlkhz0rnVFkVa_UNZExgQNTZsKNSsBauE3KNC1HuC0peW5AXvMsEEJBx1RmJzJMMdaFhxtlzKXD9I8R5JHEWcFHNkp-yt2g-pwPbw7NR6sn_Q=="
shape=rect target=_blank><FONT
size=3>http://www.countercurrents.org/levine150211.htm</FONT></A><FONT size=3>
where you can also watch a monologue by Jeremy Bentham on the global energy
situation.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial', 'sans-serif'"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia; FONT-SIZE: 14pt" face="Georgia">The Coming Misery
That Big Oil Discusses Behind Closed Doors</SPAN></B></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><STRONG><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Georgia', 'serif'">By Steve LeVine </SPAN></STRONG></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"><B>15 February, 2011</B><BR> </SPAN><A
href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=aajwdndab&et=1104583184456&s=1254&e=001PebS19YYUKtl17k1weUrN0USvxlgs5CKvL9Obw1wxt8s4OSQ1ENcro-Yg782lflTDYzdM5nX3Dd_gqg14qyY7HESdU9puknOtkokC_XA3aXq7m2Kg3NvLIALhwZ0MOMwCJGGHHVKodSU98gmWUWVHv0SpoOqB6dClc0gFRPyHHNH3qslhzRfbER_TDvHEXEhCErh3bnKf-Q8rLteeQuWxqcTjmy3PRgKBQYdYmmT6IKML9RLye9XEg=="
shape=rect target=_blank><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Georgia', 'serif'; COLOR: black; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none">The
Oil and the Glory</SPAN></A></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt"><STRONG>W</STRONG></SPAN>hen
big-thinkers at companies with the most skin in the energy game are behind
closed doors and they discuss how the world really looks going forward, do they
say that there are bumps in the road but that things will be fine, just fine, as
they suggest publicly? Three years ago, we got a glimpse into the room when
Royal Dutch/Shell issued a </SPAN><A
href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=aajwdndab&et=1104583184456&s=1254&e=001PebS19YYUKvQbNbihZq_akobCdv2OESQt9ueKu3CVfT7mQPcJHgfptu3e_3iLVlltOY-J-aOSti6VB0UKbbCFsQLyP5k0Ob4_W9ACuceSPDhNhgxC7i8l7uyQUWVWwur_4JCrnd4SSVcdCpOX7XMm9kpJRogUYIQeznVmBIfo0Smj7ITbbbNAXjAOu2FCDMKW1Wg5GulwVZFRr0bPVhqoY9fsnVOv1F3CsnoHmSSJL_JqEAydrDUazMd7YrCMFcF"
shape=rect target=_blank><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Georgia', 'serif'; COLOR: black; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none">scenario</SPAN></A><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia" face="Georgia"> forecasting the world in 2020.
Based on current economic and energy-use patterns around the world, Shell said
that energy supplies will be so tight that they will tip the world into a
full-blown crisis in which governments will force their populations to reduce
driving, use less electricity, and pay an extremely steep increase for what they
do consume. There will be a massive, decade-long economic slowdown, and
geopolitical power will shift dramatically to energy-producing nations, the
company said.</SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">Today, Shell returned with an </SPAN><A
href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=aajwdndab&et=1104583184456&s=1254&e=001PebS19YYUKuSiZDQgyI8yStV2VKCRo91P7rn_kavdLTubONJkREkrKDUggnUWc3nOKi1FModS8nVgmo-kAuVtkJWqaR8RcHEH13tMGJxQC5YAAxcP7ZusMVDhlvFaO_K5lcdS59Cg6zVLTYB6u5m2JN1BRQvEqYPGdx_O_8FHtoVcHPP_FLryGHcvo3Z01piv8gLnS8_NnTe4IvK43X3PA=="
shape=rect target=_blank><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Georgia', 'serif'; COLOR: black; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none">update</SPAN></A><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia" face="Georgia">. The company said that the 2008
financial crisis interrupted the slide it predicted, but that the clock has
begun ticking again. If the world does not change how it uses energy, its
scenario will hold true. </SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">In recent weeks, we've heard almost identical energy-consumption
projections from ExxonMobil (here is</SPAN><A
href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=aajwdndab&et=1104583184456&s=1254&e=001PebS19YYUKs2mfdTXZSMbcPXuk3E19cP1GEYaiXj8WncToyvMp0Za5e_pZrqqXLvW93w8l_Nyzqen8Na5VigtdTfjjYTMq5bVGyMO01JxWguMvwXUobG26ofpH72v-QCyUXg87G2JhAWO1_iJ5gCObzPBUhW7SMEHheDRj1t-Mr2H_wEZ4AQ_9XI0HMwLSwF"
shape=rect target=_blank><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Georgia', 'serif'; COLOR: black; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none">Exxon's
neat slide show</SPAN></A><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia" face="Georgia">),
BP and now Shell: The world will use about 40 percent more energy by 2030. The
difference is that Exxon and BP more or less just toss out the numbers, while
Shell suggests that one might consider running for the hills, oh, sometime
around 2016 or 2017 before everyone else shows up. You all can plan to return
home around 2030, Shell has said, when the world has come to its senses and
adopted all the efficiency and price-signal mechanisms that some
forward-thinkers are suggesting now. </SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">There is some optimism in the report, such as descriptions of
actions by nations like Japan and Norway and companies like Wal-Mart to lower
greenhouse gas emissions. But the United States, for example, has not reversed
energy-use practices that helped lead to the Shell scenario, the company says.
</SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">I myself tend to believe that, although it looks otherwise at the
moment, nations will not put themselves in the collective position of
unhappiness described by Shell. For example, there will be an even greater than
projected shift to plentiful natural gas, thus tempering Shell's projections.
Yet, it's worth reading on to the jump for more about the reports. Meanwhile,
for the visual-minded, here is Shell's glossy video presentation.</SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">Shell's 2008 and 2011 reports actually contain two scenarios. The
one described above, called "Scramble," is what it projects will happen if the
world continues on its current course. A more optimistic version, called
"Blueprints," includes a squeeze but far less despair because the world acts to
reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions. </SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">Shell's latest, 78-page report confirms its previous finding that
in just four years, our usual sources of fuel are not going to meet growing
global demand, so that there is going to be much switching to dirty coal, plus
more use of agricultural-based biofuels.</SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">Specifically, Shell foresees total energy demand -- including
fuel for transportation, manufacturing, electricity, heat, and so on -- rising
to the equivalent of about 317 million barrels of oil a day, about 22 percent
higher than the approximately 259 million barrels a day consumed last year. In
2030, the number rises another 12 percent, to 358 million barrels a day, in
Shell's scenario.</SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">As the earlier report described what happens next, that's not
going to be enough energy either, so:</SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">governments react with draconian measures -- such as steep and
sudden domestic price rises or severe restrictions on personal mobility with
accompanying disruptions in value chains and significant economic dislocations.
By 2020, the repetition of this volatile three-step pattern in many areas of the
energy economy results in a temporary global economic slowdown. ... Although
change must and does occur, the turnaround takes a decade because large-scale
transformations of the energy system are required.</SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">The 2008 report was also interesting in describing the
geopolitical result -- that "major resource holders are increasingly the rule
makers rather than the rule takers. They use their growing prominence in the
world to influence international policies, particularly when it comes to matters
they insist are internal such as human rights and democratic governance." In
other words, no Egypts or Tunisias in the scarce-energy age. No one will object,
Shell said, because they will need sweetheart deals with the energy-producing
countries in order to obtain what they can and "do not want to rock the energy
boat they have just managed to board." </SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">The new report suggests that all is not lost -- there are signs,
if slow ones, of attention to climate change. Whatever the case, Shell sticks
with its prediction that eventually -- after about a decade of misery -- people
come around and decide to act:</SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia"></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=style1><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Georgia"
face="Georgia">High domestic prices and exceptionally demanding standards
imposed by governments provoke significant advances in energy efficiency.
Eventually, locally developed alternative supplies -- biofuels, wind, and
thermal solar -- also contribute on a much greater scale than before. By 2030,
healthy economic growth is restored, with particular vibrancy in the new energy
sector that has received a massive stimulus to innovation through this difficult
period.</SPAN></P>
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style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial', 'sans-serif'"></SPAN> </P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>