<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">Alex and others. I was disappointed with this piece from the Australia Institute. They usually do much better than this.<div><p style="-webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 2px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 2px; "><font class="Apple-style-span" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; "></span>Here's a quotation from the article:</span></font></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 2px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 2px; "><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 14px; "><i>"... While this is no doubt true, the potential disruption to the broader economy of people not being able to afford to drive to work are significant, to say the least. World </i></span></font><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#F91715"><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 14px; "><i>economies</i></span></font></font><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 14px; "><i> are built on oil. As occurred in response to the OPEC oil shock of the 1970s, skyrocketing oil prices are likely to result in </i></span></font><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#F91715"><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 14px; "><i>severe disruption to those economies</i></span></font></font><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 14px; "><i>, with central banks raising interest rates to slow inflation, people out of work, and </i></span></font><font class="Apple-style-span" color="#107F3F"><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 14px; "><i>famine and civil disorder in the third world</i></span></font></font><font class="Apple-style-span" size="4"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 14px; "><i>, as much agricultural production depends on oil."</i></span></font></p><p style="-webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 2px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 2px; "><font class="Apple-style-span" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; ">The author refers to peak oil as an issue for <u>economies</u> and of personal transport difficulties and he looks to economists for explanations and predictions. Yet this complacency and narrow-mindedness skips over his reference to "</span></font><font class="Apple-style-span" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; ">famine and civil disorder in the third world" </span></font><font class="Apple-style-span" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; ">as if the "third world" were on another planet and as if famine in other countries will not affect Australia. He says "world economies are built on oil". No! World </span></font><font class="Apple-style-span" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; "><u>societies</u></span></font><font class="Apple-style-span" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; "> depend for their daily existence and survival on cheap energy and particularly on cheap petroleum products which provide not just energy but also the raw materials for plastics, fertilizers, road surfaces, adhesives, pharmaceuticals etc. (You all know the list).</span></font></p><div>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div>-----------------------------</div><div>Keith Thomas</div><div><a href="http://www.evfit.com">www.evfit.com</a></div><div>-----------------------------</div></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></span>
</div>
<br><div><div>On 02/09/2010, at 2:21 PM, Alex Pollard wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">Good to see the Australia Institute raising Peak Oil awarenes.<br><br>There is a lot of cross-over between addressing Climate Change and Peak
Oil however a carbon price per se would not sufficiently price the
scarcity oil nor would it price the risk of oil supply disruption eg
deep-sea drilling, oil supply lanes through volatile regions.<br><br>Alex<br>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="position: static; z-index: auto; ">
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<td style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT:
0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: bold 24px Georgia, Times,
serif; PADDING-TOP: 3px">13. The dirty topic of peak oil: get
ready to reduce your reliance </td>
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<td style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 4px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT:
0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: oblique 14px arial, verdana,
sans-serif; PADDING-TOP: 4px"><a title="This external link
will open in a new window" href="http://redirect.cmailer.com.au/LinkRedirector.aspx?clid=8ef14a9e-8768-43c0-ad04-1d3d864553a3&rid=617e8e8e-dda6-458f-b8af-4f8c8603fd09" target="_blank">Dr David Ingles, author of Running on empty?
The peak oil debate, writes:</a> </td>
</tr>
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<td style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM:
10px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px;
FONT: 12px arial, verdana, sans-serif; PADDING-TOP: 3px"><a style="COLOR: #669933; TEXT-DECORATION: none" class="greenLink" title="This external link will open in a new
window" href="http://redirect.cmailer.com.au/LinkRedirector.aspx?clid=7e1ca046-41d2-43e9-8d4e-2b54f633dfd8&rid=617e8e8e-dda6-458f-b8af-4f8c8603fd09" target="_blank">CLIMATE CHANGE</a>, <a style="COLOR: #669933;
TEXT-DECORATION: none" class="greenLink" title="This external
link will open in a new window" href="http://redirect.cmailer.com.au/LinkRedirector.aspx?clid=54a43edd-d704-432f-82fa-35e58685b99b&rid=617e8e8e-dda6-458f-b8af-4f8c8603fd09" target="_blank">GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS</a>, <a style="COLOR:
#669933; TEXT-DECORATION: none" class="greenLink" title="This
external link will open in a new window" href="http://redirect.cmailer.com.au/LinkRedirector.aspx?clid=c246a421-1139-40f7-b179-3e5bcf19b2d2&rid=617e8e8e-dda6-458f-b8af-4f8c8603fd09" target="_blank">INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY</a>, <a style="COLOR: #669933; TEXT-DECORATION: none" class="greenLink" title="This external link will open in a new
window" href="http://redirect.cmailer.com.au/LinkRedirector.aspx?clid=a7544d8d-8f85-4aeb-98cd-5bb6eb04e9ed&rid=617e8e8e-dda6-458f-b8af-4f8c8603fd09" target="_blank">OIL</a> </td>
</tr>
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<td style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #e5e5e5 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM:
10px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px arial,
verdana, sans-serif; PADDING-TOP: 10px" class="article_content"><p>Wouldn't it be funny if we spent so long arguing about what
to do about climate change that we ran out of cheap oil first?
No, it wouldn't really, it would be catastrophic.</p><p>But given the government's delay in producing an Energy
White Paper and the steady backsliding on the need to actually
reduce our greenhouse gas emissions in Australia, it is not
beyond the realms of possibility. Even the usually optimistic
International Energy Agency (IEA) is starting to sound a
little nervous.</p><p>No one can say with certainty how much oil is left in the
ground nor how much it will cost to take it out. As with
climate change, the search for certainty in relation to oil
supply is a fool's errand. But while no-one can say with
certainty how much is left, virtually no economists or oil
industry analysts disagree with the statement that oil
production cannot keep growing forever. The notion that oil
production must one day peak is now referred to as 'peak
oil'.</p><p>While there is virtually no debate that oil production must
one day peak, there is much debate about the timing and
significance of such a peak. For those who have become
accustomed to talking about emission reduction targets for
2020 and 2050 it may come as some surprise to learn that the
mid-range forecasts for the peak in global oil production are
10-15 years. This does not mean that there will be no oil in
10 or 15 years time, but it means oil is going to get a LOT
more expensive. Put simply, if demand continues to rise and
supply starts to fall the days of the average Australian
driving their Landcruiser to work will be over.</p><p><snip></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></body></html>