<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">Jim Kunstler quotes Matt Simons this week.<div><br></div><div>I have pasted below JHK's piece plus a selection (about 20%) of the better reader comments.<br><div>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div>-----------------------------</div><div>Keith Thomas</div><div><a href="http://www.evfit.com/">www.evfit.com</a></div><div>-----------------------------</div></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></span>
</div>
<!--StartFragment--><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:24.0pt;line-height:31.0pt;mso-pagination:
none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande";
mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";color:#262626;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">What
If He's Right?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">By James Howard Kunstler <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">on July 19, 2010 8:18 AM<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
15.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"><a href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html">http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">Just when America was celebrating the provisional end of BP's Macondo
oil blowout, and getting back to important issues like Kim Kardashian's
body-suit collection, along comes Matthew Simmons with a rather strange and
alarming outcry on doings in the Gulf of Mexico that contradicts the mood of
renewed festivity, as well as just about every shred of reportage from any
media outlet, mainstream or otherwise.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">Matt Simmons’ Houston-based company has been the leading investment bank
to the US oil industry for a long time, financing exploration and drilling in
places like the Gulf of Mexico. Simmons, 68, recently retired from day-to-day management
of the company. For much of the decade he has been what may be described as a
peak oil activist. His 2005 book, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal">Twilight
in the Desert</i>, warned the public that Saudi Arabia's oil production had
reached its limits and, more generally, that an oil-dependent world was
entering a zone of serious trouble over its primary resource. He took this
aggressive stance despite risking the ire of the people he did business
with. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">Matt Simmons is a sober individual and a very nice man (I've met him
twice over the years), a button-downed corporate executive who's been around
the oil business for forty years. His knowledge is deep and comprehensive. From
the beginning of the BP Macondo blowout incident in April, he's taken the far
out position that the well-bore is fatally compromised and that BP has been
consistently lying about their operations to stop the flow of oil. Perhaps most
radically, Simmons claims that an oil "gusher" is pouring into the
Gulf some distance from the drilling site itself.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">Last week, Simmons came on Dylan Ratigan's MSNBC financial show, but he
did a longer interview over at the King World News website. (click here for <a href="http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/7/17_Matt_Simmons.html"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">ERIC KING'S
INTERVIEW WITH SIMMONS</span></b></a> - </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande";
mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"><a href="http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/7/17_Matt_Simmons.html">http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/7/17_Matt_Simmons.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">Simmons's current warning about the situation focuses on the gigantic
"lake" of crude oil that is pooling under great pressure 4000 to 5000
feet down in the "basement" of the Gulf's waters. More particularly,
he is concerned that a tropical storm will bring this oil up - as tropical
storms and hurricanes usually do with deeper cold water - and with it clouds of
methane gas that will move toward the Gulf shore and kill a lot of people. (I
really don't know the science on this and welcome any reader to correct me, but
I suppose that the oil "lake" deep under the Gulf waters contains a
lot of methane gas dissolved at pressure, and that as the oil rises toward the
ocean's surface, and lower pressures, the gas will bubble out of solution.)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">Simmons makes two additional points that are pretty radical: he says
that several states along the Gulf ought to begin systematic evacuations in
counties along the shore now. From his experience in Houston with Hurricane
Rita (2005), he says a last-minute evacuation is bound to be a disaster -- the
highways jammed hopelessly, drivers ran out of gas, and then the gas stations
ran out of gas. Based on where the nation's collective state-of-mind is these
days, I can't imagine that any Gulf state governor or mayor will heed this
warning and begin preparing an evacuation now. (The practical problems are
obvious for householders but what if it really is a matter of life and death?)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">Secondly, Simmons maintains - as he has from near the beginning of the
blowout - that the US military should take over operations from BP and ought to
<span style="color:#FF6600">set off a "small" nuclear device down in
the well-bore to fuse the rock into glass and seal the site permanently</span>.
Simmons says, based on his experience growing up in Utah near the government's
underground nuclear testing sites in neighboring Nevada, where scores of very
large atomic bombs were set off for years with no measurable consequences above
ground, that a small nuclear explosion down in the Macondo well is unlikely to
have any effect above the undersea rock surface. I have no idea, personally if
this is true.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">Matt Simmons is taking a position so "out there" that even the
radical peak oil website <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">THEOILDRUM.COM</span></b></a>
won't comment on his remarks (at least not as of early Monday morning July 19).
I don't know how to evaluate Simmons's contentions myself, except to say that I
don't believe Simmons is a nut, or that he's lost his marbles. We also must
suppose that someone in his position is able to talk with an awful lot of the
best people in the oil industry. Simmons has put his reputation on the
line. A lot of bystanders and commentators are treating him as a fool. Simmons
himself is painfully aware of his lonely stance and seems, in his public
appearances, to be a very regretful messenger.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">In the past twenty-four hours, BP has reported some possible leaks
coming out of the seabed some distance from the well-bore. Nobody has been able
to confirm yet exactly what is happening down there. One other thing Simmons
said is that BP should be barred from the media airwaves since, he says, they
have lied consistently in order to cover up their criminal negligence and
culpability. The company itself cannot be saved because the claims against it
are much greater than the value of its assets - but the people running the
company could be sent to jail, so the incentive to keep lying remains high.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">Jesse at the <a href="http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">JESSE'S CAFÉ
AMÉRICAIN</span></b></a> website <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
15.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"><a href="http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/">http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">makes an excellent point that if Matt Simmons is correct, and it turns
out that the US government has been played by BP, then remaining public trust
in the competence and legitimacy of government could evaporate. This is not a
happy thing to contemplate at a time when the state of the nation and its
economy are so fragile. What follows could make the current political situation
seem like little more than, well, than a tea party, compared to the
politics-to-come.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">Readers here at Clusterfuck Nation are probably well aware of my past
declarations of being allergic to conspiracy theories and crazy ideas
generally. I'm not really equipped to evaluate Matt Simmons's warnings about
the exact nature of the Macondo blowout and what might happen in the months
ahead. But I am confident, having met the guy and corresponded with him and
read his books, that he is a straight shooter. I'm sure that he is sincere in
proclaiming his extreme discomfort with the position he's taken. Listen and
decide for yourselves. (<a href="http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Archive.html"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">SIMMONS
INTERVIEW WITH ERIC KING</span></b></a>)<br>
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"><a href="http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Archive.html">http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Archive.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US">___________</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; "><a href="http://www.fouadkhan.com/"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:15.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none">FOUAD KHAN</span></b></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; "> | <a href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html#comment-21839"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">JULY 19, 2010
8:47 AM</span></b></a> | <a href="x-msg://183/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">REPLY</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">We must remember that evaluating this incident as an
"incident" is foolish. This was the result of decades of risk
accumulation during oil industry operations. Leaked and spilled contaminants
are the unacknowledged "nuclear waste" of the fossil fuel industry.
The cover-ups have become so elaborate over the decades, they would restore
your belief in conspiracy theories if disclosed.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; "><a href="http://hurricanekatrinakaif.com/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">HTTP://HURRICANEKATRINAKAIF.COM</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Matt is getting too extreme with the whole nuclear
seal-off bid; I mean if we don't have the capacity to put a cap on the well
with any degree of competence, how can we be expected to safely execute a
nuclear detonation at those depths? It's never been done before and is
therefore too risky.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">But there's no doubt the well has been compromised and
BP wants to play the "cap is working" drama just long enough to shift
the blame of the next consequential disaster elsewhere. And given the current
state of government, they'd get away with it too. Don't think for a moment that
BP won't survive this. BP would, the gulf wouldn't.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">==============<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Chocokitty | <a href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html#comment-21841"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">JULY 19, 2010
9:04 AM</span></b></a> | <a href="x-msg://183/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">REPLY</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Well, there's the whole matter of Simmons shorting BP,
so take him with a grain of salt.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">=============<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Desertrat | <a href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html#comment-21845"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">JULY 19, 2010
9:31 AM</span></b></a> | <a href="x-msg://183/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">REPLY</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">I'm no expert, but some (IMO) halfway rational
observations: The hazard from a nuke would be dependent upon the geology in the
lower mile of the hole. Geologists would be able to determine that from the
material which came up with the drilling--originally or with the relief-well
effort.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">If the cap doesn't work, and no nuke is used, it seems
to me that the only way to stop the flow would be to reduce the gas pressure. I
see no way to do that but to play, "Drill, baby, drill," and get as
many producing wells going as possible. Accelerate the usual depletion as much
as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">=============<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; "> Bilbo | <a href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html#comment-21846"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">JULY 19, 2010
9:36 AM</span></b></a> | <a href="x-msg://183/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">REPLY</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">I don't whether Matt Simmons' ideas about the Gulf are
lunatic or not, but I do know he has a truly lunatic idea that we can convert
ocean energy into liquid ammonia and convert our cars to run on liquid ammonia.
This is true lunacy because ammonia is highly toxic. Not only would I never
want to be in an ammonia fueled vehicle, I'd never want to live any where near
someone who did. Even a small leak in the fuel system of an ammonia fueled
vehicle could kill or injure an entire neighborhood.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Simmons has been promoting this ammonia idea for years
and has funded a research effort in Maine to break it to fruition.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">===========<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">budizwiser | <a href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html#comment-21856"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">JULY 19, 2010
10:18 AM</span></b></a> | <a href="x-msg://183/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">REPLY</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">The BP oil spill has changed the Gulf of Mexico
forever. For years into the future oil and other intermediate oil dispersion
chemicals will surface or wash up on shore.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">From now on, it will be impossible in most cases to
identify the sources of oil or other contaminiates. Future operations are
"free" to go about their business knowing that no one can blame their
particular operations for oil appearing in any number of hundreds of square
miles.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">=============<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">hugho | <a href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html#comment-21866"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">JULY 19, 2010
11:26 AM</span></b></a> | <a href="x-msg://183/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">REPLY</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Jim, I have long been a fan of Matt and have always
thought he was a straight shooter as well. But now that he has stepped down or
perhaps was forced out, his pronouncements have gotten a bit strident. I will
continue to listen to him but the circumstances of his departure from Simmons
and Co give me pause. His idea of nuking the well is one of the comments that
gave me pause. He says the Russians have used it successfully to cap blowouts
in central Asia in the 60's. True enough but those were gas wells ON LAND. They
were not oil wells miles deep. No one knows what would happen if it were tried
in deep ocean. If the formation is leaking oil elsewhere, I would fear that an
explosion could increase the chance of a truly catastrophic ocean floor blowout
given that oil and water are incompressible. Only one way to find out. Ask
Jindal and the other southern goon governors if they want to give it a shot! At
this point no one is in control of this bad situation and the danger of
thinking "dammit DO sumthin! Anything!" is probably a greater danger
than letting BP muddle along doing the best it can, which so far hasn't been
very inspiring.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">==============<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; "><a href="http://www.stungunstopepperspray.com/"><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:
15.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande";color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;
text-underline:none">PEPPER SPRAY </span></b></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">| <a href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html#comment-21873"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">JULY 19, 2010
11:49 AM</span></b></a> | <a href="x-msg://183/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">REPLY</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">"It seems that the first thing to do is to send
ROVs down into the depths of the Gulf and see if that pool of oil and methane
is there or not."<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">They have probably done that... If millions of people
in Gulf States are in harms’ way, moving us out would result in financial
chaos. How far would you move of millions of people? Where would you house
them? Not in my back yard yells Middle America. Who would pay for their housing
and policing of the displaced?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">And the biggest issue. Real estate in most of the
southern US would go to $ zero. The truth is that banks are insolvent now but
legally hiding that fact off the books hoping R/E will come back before they
actually have to book those real losses. Wiping out that much R/E in one shot
would crush the banks and probably the global financial system.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">With all that you have witnessed since October 2008
who do you think is really more important to our leaders, the people or
bankers?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">I live in Florida; we will never be warned of
impending disaster because to do so will hurt the profit margins of the
financially powerful. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">============================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Jim in PA | <a href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html#comment-21881"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">JULY 19, 2010
12:31 PM</span></b></a> | <a href="x-msg://183/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">REPLY</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Matt Simmons should stick to investment banking, because
engineering and science are obviously not his forte. First of all, putting a
nuclear bomb into the borehole would create more than just heat sufficient to
fuse rock. The blast would also create a massive shockwave, the force of which
would fracture rock for a great distance around the well. Metaphorically
speaking, instead of the oil now spewing up through a small straw, it would
then be seeping up through the entire surface area a large sponge. You tell me
which is easier to contain. It is critical to maintain the geological integrity
of the rock formation and seal the pipe. Although I will say that BP's solution
of just "capping" the pipe is almost as idiotic. The damn well needs
to be PLUGGED not capped. I guarantee that this "cap" will fail in
short order. The only question is "when?".<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">=================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Stone | <a href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html#comment-21885"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">JULY 19, 2010
12:45 PM</span></b></a> | <a href="x-msg://183/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">REPLY</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Although Mr. Simmons may be a nice and usually
sober-minded man and one knowledgeable in the mechanics of oil industry
investing and in the state of many oil fields, he is not thereby either a
geologist, or a chemist, or a nuclear scientist specialized in nuclear
detonations carried out under thousands of feet of water.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Let me add here that nuclear detonations always have
to be tested when carried out in new environments, for their effects cannot be
predicted with certainty.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">To me, there is no doubt and no hesitation: Mr.
Simmons has clearly over-stepped his bounds, and that is sufficient to take
away some of the nice credibility he had acquired over his years as a peak oil
activist.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">It is not responsible of a man such as him to issue
pronouncements the soundedness of which it is not within his competencies to
guarantee.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">==================<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">D R Lunsford | <a href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/07/what-if-hes-right.html#comment-21900"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">JULY 19, 2010
2:50 PM</span></b></a> | <a href="x-msg://183/"><b><span style="color:#3D5700;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">REPLY</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">JHK, I'm a physicist and I know some chemistry.
Simmons is out of his tree. There is no methane catastrophe pending. In fact
most of the leaked oil will never be found. Its volatile gases are quickly
driven off and break down in salt water. The volume of oil released to volume
of water in the affected area is at least 6 million to 1. Once the volatiles
are driven off, the tar left behind will sink and be enmired with the mud that
streams into the gulf from countless rivers and streams. Much the same thing
happened in 1979 at the Ixtoc I blowout, which was functionally identical to
this one but at a much shallower depth. We were really fortunate here, in that
the natural flow of water from the Mississippi is so powerful that most of the
oil released near the surface from the early stages of the disaster was pushed
away, and that at depth has almost no chance of getting anywhere near the
surface. From the beginning there has been nothing but stupidity and
misinformation all round, from all parties, on this spill.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:15.0pt;mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:
none;text-autospace:none"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">And BTW, nuking something at 5000 feet under water
would have essentially zero effect on the surface environment. It would also do
nothing to stop the well unless carried out at the same depth as the relief
well. Since the relief well is guaranteed to work, it's pointless to even
consider it.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande'; ">Note that I am not defending the scum-sucking oil
companies here or the government of toadies that kisses collective oil-ass.
It's the general stupidity, ignorance, and trembling baby pussiness of everyone
that makes me want to puke. Everyone from McChrystal to Eminem is a posturing,
ignorant pussy in this ridiculous excuse for a country. Why should we have
expected anything better from the clowns in the gulf?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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