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<br><div><div>On 28/12/2008, at 4:07 PM, Jenny Goldie wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Arial; font-size: 11px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0; ">Can I recommend George Monbiot's article 'Oil's slippery slope' from Saturday's Canberra Times? Sorry, can't get it electronically but it's well worth a read. I have written to the CT about it.</span></blockquote></div><div><br></div><div>It looks like it's this article <<a href="http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/12/15/at-last-a-date/">http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/12/15/at-last-a-date/</a>> reprinted from 15 December.</div><div><br></div><div>What surprised me about the article is that it did not discuss the effects of the global economic situation nor did, I think, the IEA report on which he based his article. My guess on this is -</div><div><br></div><div>1. Demand will drop. This is obviously happening. I saw one report that US demand for petrol was down 9% but their reserves are skyrocketing thence the price drop and OPEC decision to cut production by 9%, 5% of world production <<a href="http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/12/26/opec-uae-update-markets-commodities-cx_po_1226markets10.html">http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/12/26/opec-uae-update-markets-commodities-cx_po_1226markets10.html</a>>.</div><div><br></div><div>2. Countries with oil and prospects for the development of significant new fields - mostly OPEC will have a catastrophic drop in revenue which will scramble their current plans for increased infrastructure and certainly delay plans for new production capacity to become available. The cash won't be coming in and banks won't be lending.</div><div><br></div><div>3. The net effect may be that although the depletion of existing fields is delayed the creation of new capacity will be delayed even more, meaning that peak production may not be delayed and may even occur sooner.</div><div><br></div><div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Andale Mono'; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Andale Mono'; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Andale Mono'; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Andale Mono'; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; orphans: 2; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Andale Mono'; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; orphans: 2; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; "><div>4. My guess is we will have a plateau for the next couple of years and as we start to get signs of an economic recovery the decline will hit, oil prices will spike and we will stay stuck in a recession/depression.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>But I am not an economist so what would I know, but then did many of them see this coming?</div><div><br></div><div>Tony</div><div><br></div><div>phone : 02 6241 7659 | <a href="mailto:tony@Tony-Barry.emu.id.au">mailto:tony@Tony-Barry.emu.id.au</a></div><div>mobile: 04 3365 2400 | <a href="mailto:tony.barry@alianet.alia.org.au">mailto:tony.barry@alianet.alia.org.au</a></div><div><a href="http://tony-barry.emu.id.au">http://tony-barry.emu.id.au</a></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></span></span></span><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></span></span> </div><br></div></body></html>