<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.6000.16587" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>
<H2><A title="go read THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: For Peak Oil, Three’s a Crowd"
href="http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2008/01/26/the-wall-street-journal-for-peak-oil-three%e2%80%99s-a-crowd/">THE
WALL STREET JOURNAL: For Peak Oil, Three’s a Crowd</A></H2>
<DIV class=postcontent>
<P class=auth>Posted by Royal Dutch Shell Plc.com at January 26th, 2008</P>
<P>January 25, 2008, 3:32 pm<BR>Posted by Keith Johnson</P>
<P><STRONG>Has the peak oil crowd added a new member?</STRONG></P>
<P><STRONG>An email written by Royal Dutch Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer has
sparked the latest round of debate over the state of oil supplies. In the email,
which Mr. van der Veer told his employees to spread around, he says</STRONG> (HT
to the Oil Drum. Here’s the whole spiel.):</P>
<P>Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will
no longer keep up with demand. As a result, society has no choice but to add
other sources of energy - renewables, yes, but also more nuclear power and
unconventional fossil fuels such as oil sands. Using more energy inevitably
means emitting more CO2 at a time when climate change has become a critical
global issue.</P>
<P>Other big energy companies, from France’s Total to Texas’s ConocoPhillips,
have already painted a less-than-rosy outlook for world oil supplies. Even the
National Petroleum Council, a proxy for the Big Oil fraternity, recently said
that conventional oil and natural-gas supplies aren’t likely to keep pace with
demand.</P>
<P>The crux of the debate: How fast are existing fields actually declining, and
how fast and economically can oil companies get new finds to replace that
output?</P>
<P>Shell outlined two main scenarios for the energy future: a free-for-all for
energy resources around the world, or growing international cooperation to
soothe energy friction. Shell leans toward the latter:</P>
<P>Against the backdrop of these two equally plausible scenarios, we will only
know in a few years whether December’s Bali declaration on climate change was
just rhetoric or the beginning of a global effort to counter it.</P>
<P>Another interesting twist to the idea that oil and natural gas will become
harder and more expensive to find and get out of the ground: It’s making coal
pricier, because coal is still the go-to fuel source in the absence of a big
nuclear build-out.</P>
<P><STRONG>So the question is: Does Shell adding its voice to the growing chorus
of naysayers mean anything for the viability of other energy
sources?</STRONG><BR></FONT></P></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>