ACT Peak Oil

GPO Box 1875

Canberra ACT 2601

Submission on ACT Energy and Climate Change Policy

edited by Alex Pollard, Convenor email: alex-po@trevbus.org, phone 0404873828

Office of Sustainability

Chief Minister's Department

GPO Box 158

Canberra ACT 2601

About ACT Peak Oil

ACT Peak Oil was formed early in 2005 by Canberrans who are concerned about the imminent peak and decline of world oil production.

ACT Peak Oil is pleased that the ACT Government has launched a consultative process for developing energy and climate change policies for the ACT. The Government's discussion papers released show that is aware of the importance of these issues and is also aware that energy and climate change policy require community engagement with the process. Tackling these issues requires the community accept that there need to beself-imposed constraints on our resource consumption. This is not an easy message for elected representatives to sell back to the voters if the voters are not already receptive to it.

ACT Peak Oil is primarily about raising awareness of the peaking of world oil production and what the realistic alternatives to oil are (and are not). We recognise the importance of getting the unpalatable facts of oil depletion across to people so that we can make realistic decisions. The alternative is to be distracted by and mislead into non-solutions, such as war.

We have been invited to appear before the Senate inquiry into Australia's oil supplies on May 12. Our submission to the inquiry is attached .

Peak Oil

The Office of Sustainability would already be familiar with the concept of oil peak. The Chief Minister alludes to it in his foreword to the energy discussion paper, referring to oil supplies being unable to keep up with demand. Peak Oil is specifically the peak of oil production in absolute terms. That is, not just can supply not keep up with demand, but supply shrinks year on year, forever. That is, there is no respite to be found in merely stabilising oil consumption. The problem is to become, over time, as independent of oil as possible. The Peak may have even passed already and we are badly under-prepared.

Concrete action required

Our most important message is that the ACT Government, like all governments, needs to take urgent, concrete action to prepare for much higher oil prices and even actual oil scarcity. At the same time, actions to ameliorate oil peak need to be carefully considered against certain constraints, not least of which is carbon emissions.

For the sake of its residents the ACT Government should start to make up for lost time and the failures of the Commonwealth. In doing so, the ACT Government would also provide leadership in national forums.

We are pleased that the ACT Government “will adopt a leadership role in demonstrating practical initiatives and actions that can be taken up by the ACT community”.

General Principles

In our Senate submission we outlined a number of principles worth bearing in mind whenever evaluating options for peak oil mitigation. We urge the ACT Government to commit to these principles.

Transport Options

There is great scope in urban transport for reducing dependence and emissions because our use is so profligate.

Measures include increasing cycling and greater emphasis on transportation demand management (TDM) programs.

The ACT Government’s progress in improving cycling amenities is much appreciated. Cycling will become increasingly popular, especially with electric bikes providing improved cycling options. We recommend lifting the registration threshold for electric bikes from 200 Watts and instead base the threshold on the maximum assisted speed of the bicycle.

We also recommend greater use of TDM. The Senate submission goes into this in greater detail and provides references.

ACT Peak Oil believes that the option of electrified mass transit must be evaluated in the likely scenario of extremely high oil prices. Bus-centred public transport is vulnerable to a liquid fuels crisis. Electrified mass transit can be powered by electricity from any source. The current planning process for a busway is timely and but we urge giving light rail serious consideration. It may also be worthwhile making provision for light rail corridors to be converted to heavy rail.

Interstate Rail

Post-peak, rail will be easier to maintain than bitumen road surfaces and offers advantages in fuel efficiency. Road freight is a major cause of road deterioration and moving it to rail would be a major improvement and a source of long-term budgetary savings. Electrified rail can also be powered by non fossil-fuel energy.

The Canberra-Sydney rail link will soon be improved by an upgrade from the circa 1917 signaling system which mandates stops at all stations. This will improve trip times by around 25 minutes. The major remaining bottle-neck is the Sydney metropolitan network. If this were fixed, rail would be comparable with a car or bus trip. CountryLink currently also imposes a 120km/h speed limit.

Ironically, the ACT’s standard unleaded petrol supply actually arrives via the Sydney-Canberra rail link. Specialist fuels arrive by road .

The new bulky goods precinct in Fyshwick should be altered to accommodate rail freight as it lies adjacent to the line.

Years of supply left

In a number of places in the discussion papers reliance is placed upon fossil-fuel supplies lasting for a specified number of years. When growth in demand for such fuels is growing year-on-year – exponentially – the number of years of oil, gas or coal available becomes questionable. Even more so when in the event of an oil crunch, we will turn likely turn to gas and coal, exhausting these resources even faster than expected.

Nuclear energy

In discussing nuclear energy, there should be a clear distinction made between nuclear power sources which involve dangerous and long-lasting radioactive fuels and waste, and potentially “clean” technologies such as nuclear fusion. Uranium fission has many difficulties over its entire life-cycle, even before we consider the how oil scarcity will impact on the mining of uranium. Fusion offers the potential for cheap energy with little or no radioactive waste. For instance, the “focus fusion” concept is for small-scale and economical fusion power generated in the neighbourhood . The process relies on fusing a hydrogen and boron gas, and produces only helium. Neither the inputs nor outputs are radioactive. The proponents are seeking funding after successful experiments at a number of universities and claim they can achieve what the massive ITER project aims for but at much lower cost.

Alternative cars and fuels

There are various possibilities in car technology worth evaluating. All options need to be assessed with the afore-mentioned principles in mind. It is important to consider if proposals for petrol substitutes such as ethanol actually make sense in environmental or energy terms. For example, does it take more diesel fuel to make ethanol than the petrol we obtain? Is it worth subsidising at all? Does the ethanol lifecycle give of more CO2 than just refining and burning petrol? And are hydrogen cars really a realistic option?

One technology which we think should be evaluated is the compressed air car. Reliant only on an electric-powered air compressor, drivers “charge” their car at a service station with highly compressed air, on which the car's “motor” runs. The ACT Government could help establish a compressed air station to evaluate the concept. Obviously the bulk of power for this would come from coal but electricity can be drawn from many sources in the future. Alternatively, if the air came from diesel-driven compressors, it seems doubtful there would be any point in pursuing the concept from an energy-conservation perspective.

Transport tax and regulation

There are many tax distortions causing excess fuel consumption. FBT concessions stand out as encouraging excess corporate car travel. The ACT Government cannot do much about this except in its own agencies.

There are however options with regard to fuel tax and car registration fees. One possibility is an increase fuel tax but compensated partly or entirely by a cut in motor registration charges. Another possibility is to provide for Pay-As-You-Drive insurance, so that those who drive less, pay less. These reforms would mean that car costs were not for sunk one year at a time, and thus ease the switch to bikes and public transport.

Supply-centric to technology-centric

An inevitable result of the shift away from fossil fuels to renewable sources is a paradigm shift – whereas previously those with the raw fuel have been the chief beneficiaries, having ongoing income from dependent consumers, renewable power uses inputs which are essentially free. Hence the main profit centre is developing and producing the most effective renewable power devices. This fits the ACT economy perfectly. As the discussion papers say, the ACT is a price taker with no fossil fuel resources. However the ACT has an exceptional body of expertise in sustainable energy systems. This is already being born out by the commercialisation of the ANU's sliver cell technology. The ACT can use its predicament to spur development of technologies it needs to guarantee its future. Technologies such as the ANU's solar concentrator are ready and waiting for these opportunities. External markets such as China offer huge potential.

Solarization and building standards

A great deal could be done in encouraging Canberrans to adopt solar technology so it “can be turned to the benefit of all”. Options deserving serious evaluation include

Solarization – A financing scheme for retrofitting existing housing stock for solar efficiency, as proposed by Professor Andrew Blakers.

A Feed-in-Law – Mandating a generous payment for solar power fed back into the grid by household solar cells. This concept has spurred a massive take-up of solar technology in Germany.

A tax or incentive to ensure houses sold in the ACT meet minimum energy efficiency standards.

Conclusion

When the world economy is hit by ever-increasing oil prices the ACT, being a Government town, will probably not suffer as greatly in a purely economic sense as much as other regions.

In the worst case, Climate Change and Peak Oil could see major population shifts away from highly populated and coastal areas. This could make Canberra an attractive location to many hundreds of thousands of people. The ACT Government needs to give some thought as to whether it wants this, or what we should do to prepare.

ACT Peak Oil believes a paradigm shift is necessary to achieve an urgent transition away from oil dependence. Incrementalism assumes we have time to muddle our way through. Incremental changes will lead to poor decision making because there will be no planning or investment certainty.

That said, the ACT community will likely come up with spontaneous and organic responses to difficulties (such as a car pooling scheme). As such, the Government will also need to become a facilitator.

We also need to acknowledge that some problems may not have any good solutions at all, in which case people need to understand the unvarnished reality of the situation.

Sustainability is a well-worn term and the emphasis should turn to the survival of our community in the face of these problems.

http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/committee/rrat_ctte/oil_supply/submissions/sub116.pdf

Australian Railway Historical Society (ACT)

http://pesn.com/2005/11/02/9600199_Focus_Fusion/ , http://users.erols.com/iri/FocusFusion-Ver6.htm

ACT Peak Oil

1995-11-21

alex-pollard

Electro Optic Systems Pty Limited