[Peakoil] China steps up speed of oil stockpiling as tensions mount in Asia - Telegraph

[Antony Broughton Barry]

On 20/05/2014, at 4:15 PM, Keith Thomas wrote:

> We might have 21 days of reserves, Tony:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_strategic_petroleum_reserves#Oceania

That was based on a report commissioned by the NRMA

http://www.mynrma.com.au/media/Fuel_Security_Report.pdf

It does not engender confidence. Some quotes -

"It is difficult then to understand how Australia could ever meet its obligations to the IEA from crude oil and petroleum stockholdings that appear to average 23 days of actual consumption and which are held by private companies who utilise those stocks for “just in time” delivery"

"The very small consumption stockholdings
in this country, combined with what appears 
to be a narrow assessment of our liquid fuels supply chain vulnerabilities, does not provide much confidence that the strategic risks to our liquid fuels supply chain are well understood."

"In essence, we have adopted a “she’ll be right” approach to fuel security, relying on the historical performance of global oil and fuel markets to provide in all cases. Unfortunately, as a result of our limited and decreasing refining capacity, our small stockholdings and long supply chains, our society is at significant risk if any of the assumptions contained in
the vulnerability assessments made to date prove false.
We would not be the first country to get our assumptions wrong. In that respect, history can be relied upon."

Since that was written our refining capacity has reduced, the proportion of fuel supplied by imports has greatly increased. As well political instability in the region from which crude supply is sourced and the routes which must be traversed have also grown.

Tony