[Peakoil] Australia’s growing oil imports are an energy security issue

[Keith]

Totally consistent with the (unreleased/suppressed) Australian government (BITRE) report of 2008 which said:

"... it is predicted that world production of conventional oil is currently just past its highest point (conventional oil is oil pumped from wells on land or in water less than 500 metres deep). A predicted shallow decline in the short run should give way to a steeper decline after 2016.

"However, deep water and non-conventional oil production are growing strongly, turning a slight decline into a plateau for total crude oil (non-conventional oil is heavy and viscose or indeed tar-like oil). Given the growth in deep and non-conventional balancing the shallow decline in conventional production, it is predicted that we have entered about 2006 onto a slightly upward slanting plateau in potential oil production that will last only to about 2016—eight years from now (2008). For the next eight years it is likely that world crude oil production will plateau in the face of continuing economic growth. After that, the modelling is forecasting what can be termed ‘the 2017 drop-off’. The outlook under a base case scenario is for a long decline in oil production to begin in 2017, which will stretch to the end of the century and beyond. Projected increases in deep water and non-conventional oil, which are ‘rate-constrained’ in ways that conventional oil is not, will not change this pattern."

A leaked copy of the report is available here:
http://ianmcpherson.com/blog/audio/Australian_Govt_Oil_supply_trends.pdf
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Keith Thomas
myrmecia at gmail.com
Within UK: 074 2929 4146
(From outside UK: +44 74 2929 4146)
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On 19 May 2014, at 12:41 am, Antony Broughton Barry <antonybbarry at me.com> wrote:

http://theconversation.com/australias-growing-oil-imports-are-an-energy-security-issue-7749


Antony Barry Mob:+61 4 3365 2400