[Peakoil] The Death of Peak Oil: End of a Flawed Theory

[Alex Pollard]

In financial markets there is something called a "contrarian
indicator". The classic example is when an article appears on the
front page of the New York Times or Time magazine trumpeting the latest
Big Thing - the contrarian take is that the Big Thing has hit
its zenith and it is time to take the opposite position.

One explanation is that if a meme in financial markets is now so
common-place that it makes it into the awareness of the sheep-like and
insular financially-uncomprehending minds of the editors of these
publications then everyone and his shoe-shiner are invested and there is
no-one left to buy in, so the trend reverses.

While
not on the plane of Time or the NY Times, articles like this probably
indicate that the level of denial and complacency is peaking - this
then brings forth conditions in which the trend can reverse. As Keith
says, the oil price is spiking once more. All major markets are subject to
intervention. If it were allowed to spike when people were concerned about
oil depletion, the political consequences could be unmanageable, if
it happens now, speculators or Middle East ructions can be blamed.

To me the Oil Drum suspension indicates everyone who is
educable about Peak Oil is aware of it by now.

Alex

On Tue, July 23, 2013 17:52, Keith wrote: 
> One of the comments
posted below this article is: 
> 
> "This article
reminds me of the joke about the people who claimed to 
>
understand Albert Einstein, which a physicist claimed was a total of 
> three, and that he had been fortunate in meeting all fifty. 
> The fundamentals of peak oil are indisputable, that there is a
finite 
> amount of oil on the planet, and that the second half is
far, far, FAR 
> more difficult AND expensive to produce than the
first half. 
> Will there be twists and turns in the bunny trail
along the way??? Again, 
> indisputable. 
> Will any of
those twists and turns change the fundamentals??? Again, 
>
indisputably no." 
> 
> To me it's like the
Erlich/Simon wager: if the settling date for that 
> wager was
today, Ehrlich would have won. 
> 
> Just because The Oil
Drum has passed "peak information" does not 
>
invalidate its past information. Once you get the principles and 
> fundamentals sorted out, the rest is mere detail. The Oil Drum was
about 
> feeding the public demand - almost a frenzy - for
information. The 
> serious, interested people now know all they
need to know and are sitting 
> back watching the shape taken in
the emergence of the downslope. The 
> fad-surfers have moved on
to the next scare. West Texas intermediate crude 
> a few minutes
ago $US 106.59. 
> ------------------------------ 
> Keith
Thomas 
> myrmecia at gmail.com 
> +44 74 2929 4146 
> ------------------------------ 
> 
> On 23/07/2013,
at 6:59 AM, Antony Barry wrote: 
> 
> The Death of Peak
Oil: End of a Flawed Theory 
>
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/07/22/The-Death-of-Peak-Oil-End-of-a-Flawed-Theory.aspx

> 
> 
> Antony Barry