[Peakoil] Government's Energy White Paper...

[Jenny Goldie]

...can be found here:

www.ret.gov.au/energy/facts/white_paper/Pages/energy_white_paper.aspx

Matt Mushalik provides the following from the Energy White Paper:

chapter 4.1.2

Liquid fuels
Liquid fuel energy security is assessed as high, trending to moderate1 in the long term, as Australia has continued access to adequate and reliable supplies of liquid fuels at prices that are manageable within the broader economy. The long-term moderate assessment recognises that our rising imports of petroleum products will lead to greater reliance on international supply chains and a consequent need for investment in import and storage infrastructure.
The assessment also recognises a likely trend of high crude oil prices driven by increasing global demand and greater reliance on more expensive sources of supply, the significant global investment challenge in meeting rising demand, and continued risks of geopolitical uncertainty in key oil-producing countries.

The decline in Australia's domestic refining capacity (following announcements of the Clyde and Kurnell refinery closures) is not considered to impair Australia's liquid fuel security. The closures will occur over 18 months, and will be complemented by an expansion of import terminal capacity to ensure that market supply is maintained. Substituting imports of crude oil for imports of refined fuel at this scale does not pose any additional risk to market security.

Our lack of oil self-sufficiency and the prospect of further refinery rationalisation does not in itself compromise or reduce our energy security (see Box 4.1). Our liquid fuel security is expected to remain high because of our access to reliable, mature and highly diversified international liquid
fuel supply chains.

Because of the commercial potential of unconventional sources of petroleum, the International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that there is a very low probability of reaching global supply limits (so-called 'peak
oil') in the period to 2035 (IEA 2011a).

Comment from me (Jenny):

Even if the supplies are there, will we be able to afford it?
What will another 30 years of coal do to the atmosphere/global warming?