[Peakoil] Energy Bulletin -: Modifying Hubbert's model of peak oil to account for a rise in production due to higher prices

[Antony Barry]

A recent IMF Working paper by Jaromir Benes, Marcelle Chauvet, Ondra Kamenik, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Susanna Mursula and Jack Selody begins by noting the trend in forecasts of oil production from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In earlier years, these forecasts were primarily just extrapolations of trends in global demand, with the assumption that supply would grow as needed to meet demand. If EIA's 2001 forecast had proven accurate, the world today would be producing about 100 million barrels of oil each day. The EIA forecast for 2012 has been revised downward in each successive year, and now stands just under 90.

EIA forecasts of total world oil production (in millions of barrels per day) for 2000-2020 as issued in consecutive years over 2001-2010.
Source: Benes, et. al. (2012).
The IMF researchers note that although forecasts based on mechanical extrapolation of trend have done badly, so too have the pessimistic forecasts of geologist Colin Campbell, who expected his definition of conventional oil production to have fallen much more rapidly than has actually been observed.

Colin Campbell forecasts made in 2003, 2005, and 2010 of conventional oil production (in millions of barrels per day) as per his definition.
Source: Benes, et. al. (2012).
Likewise, Kenneth Deffeyes' (2005) widely cited adaptation of King Hubbert's (1956), (1982) approach predicts a linear relation between total cumulative production (Q on the horizontal axis below) and the ratio of current to cumulative production (q/Q on the vertical axis). This too has proven too pessimistic, as production in recent years has been higher than such a relation would have predicted...


http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-06-15/modifying-hubbert%E2%80%99s-model-peak-oil-account-rise-production-due-higher-prices 
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