[Peakoil] The death of peak oil

[W & C Steensby]

One thing that business commentators seldom if ever seem to do is compare and contrast resource lifetimes at linear and exponential rates of use. Politicians and economists always go on about how long a resource will last at CURRENT rates of consumption. They never, never, never say how long it will last at an exponential rate.

Allow me to refresh your memories of Prof Bartlett's example of Planet Earth as an oil tank. I've done my own calculations; results follow.

Say the entire planet Earth were hollow and full of crude oil.

Currently the world uses 88 million barrels per day. Planet Earth Oiltank would provide us with oil for 211,800 million years. That's over 15 times the age of the Universe.

Now use the oil at an exponentially-increasing rate of 7.04% per annum: this is the rate of growth in oil usage between 1880 to 1970, and is a doubling of consumption every 9.8 years. Planet Earth Oiltank would be empty in about 330 years.

Compare and contrast: 211,800,000,000 years vs 330 years.

It doesn't matter how much shale oil and coal seam gas we have; the growth machine will gobble it up depressingly quickly.

Regards,
Walter