[Peakoil] [Peakoil-announce] from the age July 13

[Keith Thomas]

Thanks, Jenny. What a change! You will remember how, just five years ago we were frustrated by the refusal of establishment organisations to address the coming energy crunch and how we whooped when the Canberra Times and other news organisations finally permitted the term 'peak oil' to appear in their pages (in the CT it was in a letter from you, if I recall correctly).

Personally, I think we will see more mitigation of petroleum prices than most in the peak oil community expect because of a rush into coal wherever feasible, made possible by a lifting of many environmental and mine safety restrictions on its use. I expect the rush to be heavily subsidized. Forget clean coal. LPG will also expand.
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Keith Thomas
www.evfit.com
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On 13/07/2010, at 9:16 AM, Jenny Goldie wrote:

Dire warning for fuel supplies 
TERRY MACALISTER, LONDON 
July 13, 2010 
ONE of Britain's most respected financial institutions has warned of ''catastrophic consequences'' for businesses that fail to prepare for a world of increasing oil scarcity and a lower carbon economy.

The Lloyd's insurance market and the highly regarded Institute of Strategic Studies (ISS, known as Chatham House) say Britain needs to be ready for ''peak oil'' and disrupted energy supplies at a time of soaring fuel demand in China and India, constraints on production caused by the BP oil spill and political moves to cut carbon dioxide to halt global warming.

''Companies able to take advantage of this new energy reality will increase both their resilience and competitiveness. Failure to do so could lead to expensive and potentially catastrophic consequences,'' says the Lloyd's and ISS report, Sustainable Energy Security.

The review is ground-breaking because it comes from financial experts but contains the kind of dire warnings associated with environmental groups. It takes a potshot at the International Energy Agency, noting: ''IEA expectations [on output] over the last decade have generally gone unmet.''

The report predicts the world is heading for a global oil supply crunch and high prices owing to insufficient investment in oil production and a rebound in global demand following recession.

It repeats a warning from Professor Paul Stevens, former economist from Dundee University, at an earlier Chatham House conference that lack of oil by 2013 could force the price of crude above $US200 a barrel.

''Even before we reach peak oil,'' the Lloyd's report warns, ''we could witness an oil supply crunch because of increased Asian demand.'' 

GUARDIAN

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