[Peakoil] Paradigm of peak oil activism?

[Keith Thomas]

I can speak only for myself, Andrew, but I can say I have seen no 
evidence that you'll offend anyone on this list by being a bit 
proactive. Perhaps we're just a bit jaded.

Peak oil is of interest to me mainly because of how people react. And 
how they react will depend on a lot of other pressures that are 
impinging on them at the time. At the simplest level, people who find 
the price of petrol putting them under financial stress may not be free 
to economize as the elasticities in their budget and life will vary. 
Some will not be able to reduce petrol use because of their job (and 
they need to continue in that job to pay off the mortgage). Others will 
be able to reduce petrol purchases easily, because much travel is 
discretionary or because they do not have family commitments.

At the societal level it gets far more interesting. It looks as if the 
US is heading in to a recession. In Australia we talk of the "minerals 
boom", but if we took Qld and WA out of the Australian aggregate, then 
we'd find some of the remaining states are already in recession. So 
rising fuel prices at a time of rising interest rates, rises in net 
unemployment, wage constraint (in some states), rising food, 
electricity and water prices are going to cause some people to 
transform their lives. It might mean having to sell up; it might lead 
to domestic disputes or violence, resort to drugs and end in 
divorce/separation or worse. PO could contribute to any of these. It'll 
be a combination and so too hard to attribute a single cause.

About three years ago I wrote this two-pager on PO in Australia:

http://www.natsoc.org.au/pdf/05_12_22%20Peak%20oil%20sheet.pdf

and published it six months later. Things have not really changed and 
the history of the human species is that we don't act until we 
absolutely have to. There are millions of PO activists around the world 
and have been for years, but governments have done virtually nothing. 
There have been a few enquiries, a few acknowledgements but nothing 
else. Don't expect that to change. Find a comfortable seat, Andrew, 
well out of the way of the main action, and watch it all unfold. But 
save your energy so far as petitions, placards and protests are 
concerned. Do what you need to do about the fourth "P": Preparations. 
Prepare as best you can for irreversible changes in the way society 
operates. Don't bother preparing as if you will be dealing with 
temporary shortages, an occasional blackout, etc.; just remain alert so 
you don't act like the proverbial frog in the saucepan. That is, be 
aware of the difference between hiccups and permanent shifts. So, don't 
simply stock up with food - prepare as if the food/toilet 
paper/pharmaceutuicals/etc. you won't be able to buy in a shortage will 
NEVER be available on the same terms.

And just hope that peak oil, the next drought, economic recession, 
rising food prices, lifestyle illnesses and climate change don't hit at 
the same time as the next major flu pandemic.
--------------------------------------------
Keith Thomas
www.evfit.com
--------------------------------------------
On 09/05/2008, at 7:06 AM, Andrew Wynberg wrote:

Hello list
 
Last time I asked if there was a peak oil plan for Canberra.
 
I received three responses, which I briefly summarise as:
1. You've got to be joking, there's no plan.  There's lots of experts 
and expertise locally.
2. I'll ask a local expert
3. Queensland did an oil vulnerability report in 2006, and is now 
developing strategy to solve the vulnerabilities.
 
My next question is about the paradigm of the local peak oil activist 
community for getting things done.  I ask this question out of 
ignorance, an understanding based only on three emails I have received, 
and some website exploring.  I have no desire to offend people, and 
apologise in advance if I do offend people.
 
It appears to me that the role of the activist in the ACT is to raise 
awareness in the public, which then call on the government to do 
something.  The activists will make submissions to government and 
Senate inquiries, hold protests, wave placards and write letters to the 
editor.
 
Is this the paradigm used by Canberra peak oil activists and experts - 
raise awareness to the point where the Government will do something? 
 
Kind regards
Andrew Wynberg_______________________________________________
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