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Sun Dec 28 04:45:51 UTC 2008

The precipitous fall in oil prices over the past year may just be paving =
the way for another spike

XianPix
RISING oil prices, believes Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, =
may soon "take the wheels off an already derailed world economy". His =
Iranian counterpart agrees: "When the global economic crisis comes to an =
end, and the demand for oil picks up, the oil market could experience =
another price shock," he says. The boss of Chevron, America's =
second-biggest oil firm, also worries that "another period of tight =
supply" is at hand. Britain's energy minister is fearful too. Indeed, at =
a recent summit of oil grandees convened by the Organisation of the =
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) it was hard to find anyone who did =
not expect a price rise to rival the giddy leap to $147 a barrel last =
year.

On the face of things, this concern is absurd. The plunge of $115 in the =
price of oil from its peak last July to its nadir in December was the =
most precipitous the world has ever seen. Demand for oil is still =
falling, as the world economy atrophies. The International Energy Agency =
(IEA), an intergovernmental body which advises rich countries, thinks =
that global oil consumption will fall by 2.6m barrels a day (b/d) this =
year, or about 3%. That follows a fall of 200,000 b/d last year. World =
demand has not shrunk for two years running since the early 1980s.

In recent weeks America's oil inventories have been higher than ever at =
this time of year, and higher than at any point save September 1990, in =
the run-up to the first Gulf war. There is little room left to store any =
more crude, says Jeff Currie of Goldman Sachs. Rumours abound of traders =
hiring tankers to store their excess oil. Rich countries' stocks cover =
62 days' consumption, the most since 1993 (see chart 1). The average =
over the past five years has been 52 days' worth.

Slack in the system
Meanwhile, oil firms are not pumping nearly as much as they could. OPEC =
has announced three separate rounds of production cuts since September =
in a bid to steady prices. In all, it has vowed to trim its output by =
4.2m b/d. Analysts reckon its normally ill-disciplined members are =
indeed pumping some 3.3m b/d less. That leaves them with as much as 6m =
b/d of spare capacity to bring back into use should demand pick up. =
Saudi Arabia alone says it could pump 4.5m b/d more than it is now.

Despite this growing glut, however, the price of oil has been rising =
steadily in recent weeks (see chart 2). On May 20th it closed above $60 =
a barrel for the first time in more than six months. That marks an =
increase of more than 75% since February 12th, when it sank below =
$34-the fourth-biggest three-month rise on record, according to Mr =
Currie. The price of futures contracts suggests that energy traders see =
the price rising higher still in the coming months and years.

The explanation is simple. Oilmen are worried because they believe that =
many of the factors behind the record-breaking ascent last year remain =
in place. Much of the world's "easy" oil has already been extracted, or =
is in the hands of nationalist governments that will not allow =
foreigners to exploit it. That leaves firms to hunt for new reserves in =
ever more inhospitable and inaccessible places, such as the deep waters =
off Africa or the frozen oceans of the Arctic. Such fields take a long =
time and a lot of expensive technology to develop. Worse, new =
discoveries tend to be smaller than in the past and to run dry faster.

So oil firms must work doubly hard to replace declining fields and to =
increase output. As Francisco Blanch of Merrill Lynch puts it, they must =
find another Saudi Arabia's worth of oil every two years just to =
maintain their production at today's levels. Yet the oil industry is =
short of equipment and manpower, thanks to decades of underinvestment in =
the 1980s and 1990s, when prices were low. That left it struggling to =
expand despite the strong price signal of recent years, and thus poorly =
positioned to cater to vast new markets in the developing world, =
including China and India, where oil consumption has been growing fast. =
At the height of the boom, with the price repeatedly setting records, =
production outside OPEC even fell.

As soon as the world economy starts growing again, the theory runs, =
demand for oil will once again outstrip the industry's ability to supply =
it. The seemingly ample cushion of inventories and spare capacity will =
quickly be exhausted, sending prices soaring. In other words, the global =
recession has only interrupted the "supercycle" of which many analysts =
used to speak, during which the normal boom-and-bust cycle of oil and =
other commodities would give way to a protracted period of high prices, =
as ever-growing demand from emerging markets swallowed everything the =
extractive industries could produce. "The commodity supercycle is not =
over, just resting," says Mr Blanch.

Clear diagnosis, missing remedy
Oil bosses, OPEC ministers and anxious bankers all agree on what is =
needed to prevent this scenario becoming reality: lavish investment in =
the development of new fields and in exploration. Yet the reverse is =
happening. The oil industry is cutting its spending, bringing fewer new =
fields into production and exploring less. The IEA reckons that overall =
investment will drop by 15-20% this year.

The number of drilling rigs in use around the world fell by 32% in the =
year to April to 2,055, according to Baker Hughes, an oilfield-services =
firm. In America, where there is a glut of natural gas as well as oil, =
the number of rigs in use has fallen by over half since its peak last =
year. OPEC countries, says Abdalla Salem el-Badri, the organisation's =
secretary-general, are cancelling or delaying 35 big projects. Cambridge =
Energy Research Associates, a firm of consultants, reckons that 5.5m b/d =
of additions to capacity will fall by the wayside around the world in =
the next few years. That amounts to a third of the projected net =
increase in output by 2014.=20

In theory, this should not be happening. Big Western oil firms ("majors" =
in the industry jargon) claim that they continue to invest steadily =
throughout the cycle, irrespective of gyrations in price. Big fields, =
they argue, can take a decade or more to develop, and may then produce =
oil or gas for several decades more. The price of oil at the time the =
investment is approved is irrelevant; the important thing is to make =
sure projects will be profitable across a range of possible future =
prices. If anything, given that most oilmen expect prices to rise in the =
medium term, you would expect them to be increasing their investment, to =
capitalise on the good times to come.

For the most part, the majors are sticking to their strategy. They have =
all, by and large, continued to invest on a scale similar to that of =
previous years, despite the huge dent made in their revenues by lower =
oil prices. Exxon Mobil, the biggest, increased its capital spending by =
5% in the first quarter. Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron plan to invest as =
much this year as they did last: $31 billion and $23 billion =
respectively. BP plans a slight cut, from $21 billion to less than $20 =
billion. But BP, like Shell, is taking on more debt in order to preserve =
both its dividend and its investment plans.

Nonetheless, the extreme volatility of prices over the past year must =
have made big oil firms more cautious about future investments. Shell, =
for example, has delayed its expansion plans in Canada's tar sands, a =
particularly viscous form of oil that requires lots of processing and is =
therefore less profitable than the conventional sort. Both it and BP are =
cutting staff. And shareholders will presumably countenance only a =
certain amount of borrowing before they get cold feet.

Smaller oil companies, meanwhile, do not have nearly the same financial =
muscle, and so cannot maintain spending at last year's rate. All =
America's big "independent" firms, meaning those without refining arms, =
have cut their investments sharply. One, Devon Energy, plans to reduce =
its capital budget to $4 billion or so this year from $9 billion in =
2008. The smaller independents, says Ayman Asfari, the boss of Petrofac, =
a British-based oilfield-services firm, "have been decimated". On =
London's Alternative Investment Market, a magnet for speculative =
ventures in natural resources, oil firms managed to raise just =A323.6m =
($37m) in the final quarter of last year, compared with =A3229m in the =
previous quarter.

A handful of independents, such as Premier Oil, a British company that =
recently completed a successful rights issue, have sound enough finances =
to increase their spending. But Premier's boss, Simon Lockett, says it =
will focus more on completing existing projects and less on exploration. =
That certainly seems to be the pattern in the North Sea, at least. In =
the first quarter oil firms drilled the same number of wells to =
delineate past discoveries as they had a year before, according to =
Deloitte, an accounting firm. But the number of exploration wells =
plunged by 78%.

Then there are the state-owned firms in oil-soaked countries. These =
companies control the overwhelming majority of the world's oil. The =
better managed and funded of them plan to continue investing despite the =
downturn. Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil producer, recently =
completed a five-year scheme to expand its production capacity from 10m =
b/d to 12.5m b/d, at a cost of $70 billion. Over the next five years it =
is setting aside more than $60 billion for further investments. But it =
is naturally reluctant to continue to develop new fields when it already =
has 4.5m b/d of capacity sitting idle.

Petrobras, in which the Brazilian government owns a controlling stake, =
plans to increase its investment by 55% to $174 billion over the next =
five years. Its recent offshore discoveries are thought to be among the =
biggest oilfields ever found. But they lie far underground, below deep =
waters and a thick, drill-foiling layer of salt. No one yet knows how =
expensive it will be to develop them or how long it will take, but the =
huge scale of the investment programme suggests their oil will not come =
cheap.

Moreover, most state-owned firms do not have nearly as much money to =
spend. In Russia, the world's second-biggest oil producer, output is =
falling largely because private capital has been scared off by a series =
of expropriations, while the state starves the firms it controls of =
sufficient cash for investment. By the same token, Venezuela's national =
oil company is so short of money that it has not been paying the =
oilfield-services firms it uses as subcontractors. When some of them =
refused to continue working until they had been paid, the government =
seized their assets.

And most oil-rich states, naturally enough, are happy to see the price =
rise. Many have become used to bumper revenues in recent years and have =
struggled to balance their budgets since the price slumped last year. =
Saudi Arabia's king has indicated that he thinks $75 a barrel would be =
fair. Iran and Venezuela are much more hawkish. They are unlikely to =
invest heavily in order to reduce prices.

Similarly, countries that had raised taxes on oil when prices were high, =
such as Britain and Russia, are now particularly reluctant to reduce =
their take yet further by lowering them again. Yet their high marginal =
tax rates are helping to deter investment in new production capacity.

Slow service
Among the first to suffer the consequences of all this are =
oilfield-services firms. Their predicament gives a sense of the slowdown =
in the industry. Schlumberger, the biggest, cut its planned investment =
by 13% this year to $2.6 billion after its profits fell by 30% in the =
first quarter. It has shed 5,000 jobs this year and plans to eliminate =
more. Baker Hughes, a rival, has got rid of 3,000. Clients, says =
Petrofac's Mr Asfari, are trying to secure big reductions in prices.

Falling investment does not simply crimp exploration and delay large =
projects. It can also lead to lower spending on maintenance and thus =
prompt faster declines in output. The IEA estimates that the output from =
mature fields outside OPEC would naturally drop by about 11% a year. But =
through tricks such as injecting water or gas to maintain pressure, oil =
firms manage to reduce the rate of decline to 7.7%. Lower investment =
this year, the IEA calculates, is likely to push the rate up to 9.4%. =
That will reduce world oil output by 110,000 b/d this year, by a further =
250,000 b/d next year and, through compounding, by increasing amounts =
thereafter. Merrill Lynch, meanwhile, thinks the IEA underestimates the =
likely rate of decline.

Falling costs within the industry will offset the impact of falling =
investment budgets to some extent. BP argues its slight cut in =
investment does not really represent a reduction, thanks to deflation. =
Some prices are plunging: renting a drilling rig in South-East Asia cost =
$225,000 a day last year but only $160,000 a day in April, according to =
Mr Lockett of Premier Oil.=20

Yet many constraints on expansion remain. For one thing, the world still =
does not have as many experienced petroleum engineers and geologists as =
it needs, says Iain Manson of Korn/Ferry, a recruiting firm. He expects =
it to take a decade or more to overcome the shortage. Meanwhile, he =
says, wages in the oil industry are not falling by nearly as much as =
other costs.

Worse, there is little sign that governments are willing to grant oil =
companies easier access to the most promising territory for exploration. =
Iraq's plans to sign big new contracts with foreign firms are years =
behind schedule, as is its new oil law. American sanctions continue to =
impede investment in Iran. The Mexican government did recently broaden =
the scope for Pemex, the state-owned oil monopoly, to hire foreign =
contractors. But it abandoned more sweeping plans to allow private =
investment in exploration and production in the face of strong political =
opposition. The Nigerian government has been unable to quell the =
insurgency in the Niger delta, making it difficult for oil firms to =
operate there. Even in America, despite years of debate, most coastal =
waters and much of Alaska remain off-limits to drilling.=20

In short, argues Mr Currie of Goldman Sachs, "above ground" problems =
such as limited access and rising costs have not gone away, and will =
continue to limit the growth of the world's oil supply. He points out =
that even when prices were high, these constraints limited the volume of =
new projects approved by oil firms (see chart 3). Falling investment =
will simply compound the shortfall. So when demand begins to revive, a =
sharp rise in prices is inevitable.

That does not mean that a price spike is just around the corner, =
however. The speed with which it arrives will depend on the strength of =
the global recovery. If oil firms run out of storage capacity before =
demand begins to pick up, says Mr Currie, prices could yet swoon again.

For the moment, global consumption of oil continues to fall, despite the =
slight brightening of the economic outlook. The latest figures suggest =
that China's thirst is increasing again. Imports are nearing pre-crisis =
levels and sales of new cars hit a new record in April. But that will =
not be enough to reduce global inventories, given that the drop in =
demand from the rich world is greater than China's total imports.

Ed Morse, of LCM Commodities, a broking firm, points out that after =
previous price shocks, growth in demand has not usually reverted to =
previous rates, thanks to efficiency measures taken when prices were =
high. Moreover, technological advances are allowing oil firms to tap new =
sorts of resources, including gas trapped in seams of coal and shale, =
and "sub-salt" oilfields, which are likely to be found off the coast of =
Angola as well as Brazil.

XianPixWhere are we heading this time?
Furthermore, governments could do various things to dampen the impending =
rise in prices, argues McKinsey, a consultancy which is also predicting =
an oil-supply crunch in the next few years. One simple measure would be =
to allow trucks to pull longer trailers, thereby increasing fuel =
efficiency. Rich countries could also increase fuel supplies by removing =
tariffs on imported ethanol, the company argues. Persuading developing =
countries to drop fuel subsidies would make a big difference. In the =
longer run, ever more stringent restrictions on carbon emissions and =
ever higher efficiency standards for vehicles around the world will =
presumably help crimp demand for oil.

At the OPEC powwow Mr al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, argued that a =
low oil price always sowed the seeds of a future price rise, since it =
led to underinvestment. The only question this time is how quickly the =
strain will emerge.=20

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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>
<P class=3Dfly-title>The outlook for the oil price</P>
<H1>Bust and boom</H1>
<P class=3Dinfo>May 21st 2009<BR>From <EM>The Economist</EM> print =
edition</P>
<H2>The precipitous fall in oil prices over the past year may just be =
paving the=20
way for another spike</H2><BR>
<DIV class=3Dcontent-image-full style=3D"WIDTH: =
400px"><SPAN>XianPix</SPAN><IMG=20
title=3D"" height=3D245 alt=3D" "=20
src=3D"http://media.economist.com/images/20090523/2109BB1.jpg" =
width=3D400></DIV>
<P>RISING oil prices, believes Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia=92s oil =
minister, may=20
soon =93take the wheels off an already derailed world economy=94. His =
Iranian=20
counterpart agrees: =93When the global economic crisis comes to an end, =
and the=20
demand for oil picks up, the oil market could experience another price =
shock,=94=20
he says. The boss of Chevron, America=92s second-biggest oil firm, also =
worries=20
that =93another period of tight supply=94 is at hand. Britain=92s energy =
minister is=20
fearful too. Indeed, at a recent summit of oil grandees convened by the=20
Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) it was hard to =
find=20
anyone who did not expect a price rise to rival the giddy leap to $147 a =
barrel=20
last year.</P>
<DIV class=3Dbanner>
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<P>On the face of things, this concern is absurd. The plunge of $115 in =
the=20
price of oil from its peak last July to its nadir in December was the =
most=20
precipitous the world has ever seen. Demand for oil is still falling, as =
the=20
world economy atrophies. The International Energy Agency (IEA), an=20
intergovernmental body which advises rich countries, thinks that global =
oil=20
consumption will fall by 2.6m barrels a day (b/d) this year, or about =
3%. That=20
follows a fall of 200,000 b/d last year. World demand has not shrunk for =
two=20
years running since the early 1980s.</P>
<P>In recent weeks America=92s oil inventories have been higher than =
ever at this=20
time of year, and higher than at any point save September 1990, in the =
run-up to=20
the first Gulf war. There is little room left to store any more crude, =
says Jeff=20
Currie of Goldman Sachs. Rumours abound of traders hiring tankers to =
store their=20
excess oil. Rich countries=92 stocks cover 62 days=92 consumption, the =
most since=20
1993 (see chart 1). The average over the past five years has been 52 =
days=92=20
worth.</P>
<DIV class=3Dcontent-image-float style=3D"WIDTH: 256px"><IMG title=3D"" =
height=3D248=20
alt=3D" " src=3D"http://media.economist.com/images/20090523/CBB485.gif"=20
width=3D256></DIV><A name=3Dslack_in_the_system></A>
<H2>Slack in the system</H2>
<P>Meanwhile, oil firms are not pumping nearly as much as they could. =
OPEC has=20
announced three separate rounds of production cuts since September in a =
bid to=20
steady prices. In all, it has vowed to trim its output by 4.2m b/d. =
Analysts=20
reckon its normally ill-disciplined members are indeed pumping some 3.3m =
b/d=20
less. That leaves them with as much as 6m b/d of spare capacity to bring =
back=20
into use should demand pick up. Saudi Arabia alone says it could pump =
4.5m b/d=20
more than it is now.</P>
<P>Despite this growing glut, however, the price of oil has been rising =
steadily=20
in recent weeks (see chart 2). On May 20th it closed above $60 a barrel =
for the=20
first time in more than six months. That marks an increase of more than =
75%=20
since February 12th, when it sank below $34=97the fourth-biggest =
three-month rise=20
on record, according to Mr Currie. The price of futures contracts =
suggests that=20
energy traders see the price rising higher still in the coming months =
and=20
years.</P>
<DIV class=3Dcontent-image-float style=3D"WIDTH: 256px"><IMG title=3D"" =
height=3D248=20
alt=3D" " src=3D"http://media.economist.com/images/20090523/CBB483.gif"=20
width=3D256></DIV>
<P>The explanation is simple. Oilmen are worried because they believe =
that many=20
of the factors behind the record-breaking ascent last year remain in =
place. Much=20
of the world=92s =93easy=94 oil has already been extracted, or is in the =
hands of=20
nationalist governments that will not allow foreigners to exploit it. =
That=20
leaves firms to hunt for new reserves in ever more inhospitable and =
inaccessible=20
places, such as the deep waters off Africa or the frozen oceans of the =
Arctic.=20
Such fields take a long time and a lot of expensive technology to =
develop.=20
Worse, new discoveries tend to be smaller than in the past and to run =
dry=20
faster.</P>
<P>So oil firms must work doubly hard to replace declining fields and to =

increase output. As Francisco Blanch of Merrill Lynch puts it, they must =
find=20
another Saudi Arabia=92s worth of oil every two years just to maintain =
their=20
production at today=92s levels. Yet the oil industry is short of =
equipment and=20
manpower, thanks to decades of underinvestment in the 1980s and 1990s, =
when=20
prices were low. That left it struggling to expand despite the strong =
price=20
signal of recent years, and thus poorly positioned to cater to vast new =
markets=20
in the developing world, including China and India, where oil =
consumption has=20
been growing fast. At the height of the boom, with the price repeatedly =
setting=20
records, production outside OPEC even fell.
As soon as the world economy starts growing again, the theory runs, =
demand=20
for oil will once again outstrip the industry=92s ability to supply it. =
The=20
seemingly ample cushion of inventories and spare capacity will quickly =
be=20
exhausted, sending prices soaring. In other words, the global recession =
has only=20
interrupted the =93supercycle=94 of which many analysts used to speak, =
during which=20
the normal boom-and-bust cycle of oil and other commodities would give =
way to a=20
protracted period of high prices, as ever-growing demand from emerging =
markets=20
swallowed everything the extractive industries could produce. =93The =
commodity=20
supercycle is not over, just resting,=94 says Mr Blanch.<A=20
name=3Dclear_diagnosis,_missing_remedy></A>
<H2>Clear diagnosis, missing remedy</H2>
Oil bosses, OPEC ministers and anxious bankers all agree on what is =
needed to=20
prevent this scenario becoming reality: lavish investment in the =
development of=20
new fields and in exploration. Yet the reverse is happening. The oil =
industry is=20
cutting its spending, bringing fewer new fields into production and =
exploring=20
less. The IEA reckons that overall investment will drop by 15-20% this =
year.
The number of drilling rigs in use around the world fell by 32% in =
the year=20
to April to 2,055, according to Baker Hughes, an oilfield-services firm. =
In=20
America, where there is a glut of natural gas as well as oil, the number =
of rigs=20
in use has fallen by over half since its peak last year. OPEC countries, =
says=20
Abdalla Salem el-Badri, the organisation=92s secretary-general, are =
cancelling or=20
delaying 35 big projects. Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a firm =
of=20
consultants, reckons that 5.5m b/d of additions to capacity will fall by =
the=20
wayside around the world in the next few years. That amounts to a third =
of the=20
projected net increase in output by 2014. 
In theory, this should not be happening. Big Western oil firms =
(=93majors=94 in=20
the industry jargon) claim that they continue to invest steadily =
throughout the=20
cycle, irrespective of gyrations in price. Big fields, they argue, can =
take a=20
decade or more to develop, and may then produce oil or gas for several =
decades=20
more. The price of oil at the time the investment is approved is =
irrelevant; the=20
important thing is to make sure projects will be profitable across a =
range of=20
possible future prices. If anything, given that most oilmen expect =
prices to=20
rise in the medium term, you would expect them to be increasing their=20
investment, to capitalise on the good times to come.
For the most part, the majors are sticking to their strategy. They =
have all,=20
by and large, continued to invest on a scale similar to that of previous =
years,=20
despite the huge dent made in their revenues by lower oil prices. Exxon =
Mobil,=20
the biggest, increased its capital spending by 5% in the first quarter. =
Royal=20
Dutch Shell and Chevron plan to invest as much this year as they did =
last: $31=20
billion and $23 billion respectively. BP plans a slight cut, from $21 =
billion to=20
less than $20 billion. But BP, like Shell, is taking on more debt in =
order to=20
preserve both its dividend and its investment plans.
Nonetheless, the extreme volatility of prices over the past year must =
have=20
made big oil firms more cautious about future investments. Shell, for =
example,=20
has delayed its expansion plans in Canada=92s tar sands, a particularly =
viscous=20
form of oil that requires lots of processing and is therefore less =
profitable=20
than the conventional sort. Both it and BP are cutting staff. And =
shareholders=20
will presumably countenance only a certain amount of borrowing before =
they get=20
cold feet.
Smaller oil companies, meanwhile, do not have nearly the same =
financial=20
muscle, and so cannot maintain spending at last year=92s rate. All =
America=92s big=20
=93independent=94 firms, meaning those without refining arms, have cut =
their=20
investments sharply. One, Devon Energy, plans to reduce its capital =
budget to $4=20
billion or so this year from $9 billion in 2008. The smaller =
independents, says=20
Ayman Asfari, the boss of Petrofac, a British-based oilfield-services =
firm,=20
=93have been decimated=94. On London=92s Alternative Investment Market, =
a magnet for=20
speculative ventures in natural resources, oil firms managed to raise =
just=20
=A323.6m ($37m) in the final quarter of last year, compared with =A3229m =
in the=20
previous quarter.
A handful of independents, such as Premier Oil, a British company =
that=20
recently completed a successful rights issue, have sound enough finances =
to=20
increase their spending. But Premier=92s boss, Simon Lockett, says it =
will focus=20
more on completing existing projects and less on exploration. That =
certainly=20
seems to be the pattern in the North Sea, at least. In the first quarter =
oil=20
firms drilled the same number of wells to delineate past discoveries as =
they had=20
a year before, according to Deloitte, an accounting firm. But the number =
of=20
exploration wells plunged by 78%.
Then there are the state-owned firms in oil-soaked countries. These =
companies=20
control the overwhelming majority of the world=92s oil. The better =
managed and=20
funded of them plan to continue investing despite the downturn. Saudi =
Aramco,=20
the world=92s biggest oil producer, recently completed a five-year =
scheme to=20
expand its production capacity from 10m b/d to 12.5m b/d, at a cost of =
$70=20
billion. Over the next five years it is setting aside more than $60 =
billion for=20
further investments. But it is naturally reluctant to continue to =
develop new=20
fields when it already has 4.5m b/d of capacity sitting idle.
Petrobras, in which the Brazilian government owns a controlling =
stake, plans=20
to increase its investment by 55% to $174 billion over the next five =
years. Its=20
recent offshore discoveries are thought to be among the biggest =
oilfields ever=20
found. But they lie far underground, below deep waters and a thick,=20
drill-foiling layer of salt. No one yet knows how expensive it will be =
to=20
develop them or how long it will take, but the huge scale of the =
investment=20
programme suggests their oil will not come cheap.
Moreover, most state-owned firms do not have nearly as much money to =
spend.=20
In Russia, the world=92s second-biggest oil producer, output is falling =
largely=20
because private capital has been scared off by a series of =
expropriations, while=20
the state starves the firms it controls of sufficient cash for =
investment. By=20
the same token, Venezuela=92s national oil company is so short of money =
that it=20
has not been paying the oilfield-services firms it uses as =
subcontractors. When=20
some of them refused to continue working until they had been paid, the=20
government seized their assets.
And most oil-rich states, naturally enough, are happy to see the =
price rise.=20
Many have become used to bumper revenues in recent years and have =
struggled to=20
balance their budgets since the price slumped last year. Saudi =
Arabia=92s king has=20
indicated that he thinks $75 a barrel would be fair. Iran and Venezuela =
are much=20
more hawkish. They are unlikely to invest heavily in order to reduce =
prices.
Similarly, countries that had raised taxes on oil when prices were =
high, such=20
as Britain and Russia, are now particularly reluctant to reduce their =
take yet=20
further by lowering them again. Yet their high marginal tax rates are =
helping to=20
deter investment in new production capacity.<A =
name=3Dslow_service></A>
<H2>Slow service</H2>
Among the first to suffer the consequences of all this are =
oilfield-services=20
firms. Their predicament gives a sense of the slowdown in the industry.=20
Schlumberger, the biggest, cut its planned investment by 13% this year =
to $2.6=20
billion after its profits fell by 30% in the first quarter. It has shed =
5,000=20
jobs this year and plans to eliminate more. Baker Hughes, a rival, has =
got rid=20
of 3,000. Clients, says Petrofac=92s Mr Asfari, are trying to secure big =

reductions in prices.
Falling investment does not simply crimp exploration and delay large=20
projects. It can also lead to lower spending on maintenance and thus =
prompt=20
faster declines in output. The IEA estimates that the output from mature =
fields=20
outside OPEC would naturally drop by about 11% a year. But through =
tricks such=20
as injecting water or gas to maintain pressure, oil firms manage to =
reduce the=20
rate of decline to 7.7%. Lower investment this year, the IEA calculates, =
is=20
likely to push the rate up to 9.4%. That will reduce world oil output by =
110,000=20
b/d this year, by a further 250,000 b/d next year and, through =
compounding, by=20
increasing amounts thereafter. Merrill Lynch, meanwhile, thinks the IEA=20
underestimates the likely rate of decline.
Falling costs within the industry will offset the impact of falling=20
investment budgets to some extent. BP argues its slight cut in =
investment does=20
not really represent a reduction, thanks to deflation. Some prices are =
plunging:=20
renting a drilling rig in South-East Asia cost $225,000 a day last year =
but only=20
$160,000 a day in April, according to Mr Lockett of Premier Oil. 
Yet many constraints on expansion remain. For one thing, the world =
still does=20
not have as many experienced petroleum engineers and geologists as it =
needs,=20
says Iain Manson of Korn/Ferry, a recruiting firm. He expects it to take =
a=20
decade or more to overcome the shortage. Meanwhile, he says, wages in =
the oil=20
industry are not falling by nearly as much as other costs.
Worse, there is little sign that governments are willing to grant oil =

companies easier access to the most promising territory for exploration. =
Iraq=92s=20
plans to sign big new contracts with foreign firms are years behind =
schedule, as=20
is its new oil law. American sanctions continue to impede investment in =
Iran.=20
The Mexican government did recently broaden the scope for Pemex, the =
state-owned=20
oil monopoly, to hire foreign contractors. But it abandoned more =
sweeping plans=20
to allow private investment in exploration and production in the face of =
strong=20
political opposition. The Nigerian government has been unable to quell =
the=20
insurgency in the Niger delta, making it difficult for oil firms to =
operate=20
there. Even in America, despite years of debate, most coastal waters and =
much of=20
Alaska remain off-limits to drilling. 
<DIV class=3Dcontent-image-float style=3D"WIDTH: 256px"><IMG title=3D"" =
height=3D248=20
alt=3D" " src=3D"http://media.economist.com/images/20090523/CBB500.gif"=20
width=3D256></DIV>
In short, argues Mr Currie of Goldman Sachs, =93above ground=94 =
problems such as=20
limited access and rising costs have not gone away, and will continue to =
limit=20
the growth of the world=92s oil supply. He points out that even when =
prices were=20
high, these constraints limited the volume of new projects approved by =
oil firms=20
(see chart 3). Falling investment will simply compound the shortfall. So =
when=20
demand begins to revive, a sharp rise in prices is inevitable.
That does not mean that a price spike is just around the corner, =
however. The=20
speed with which it arrives will depend on the strength of the global =
recovery.=20
If oil firms run out of storage capacity before demand begins to pick =
up, says=20
Mr Currie, prices could yet swoon again.
For the moment, global consumption of oil continues to fall, despite =
the=20
slight brightening of the economic outlook. The latest figures suggest =
that=20
China=92s thirst is increasing again. Imports are nearing pre-crisis =
levels and=20
sales of new cars hit a new record in April. But that will not be enough =
to=20
reduce global inventories, given that the drop in demand from the rich =
world is=20
greater than China=92s total imports.
Ed Morse, of LCM Commodities, a broking firm, points out that after =
previous=20
price shocks, growth in demand has not usually reverted to previous =
rates,=20
thanks to efficiency measures taken when prices were high. Moreover,=20
technological advances are allowing oil firms to tap new sorts of =
resources,=20
including gas trapped in seams of coal and shale, and =93sub-salt=94 =
oilfields,=20
which are likely to be found off the coast of Angola as well as =
Brazil.
<DIV class=3Dcontent-image-float style=3D"WIDTH: =
300px">XianPix<IMG=20
title=3D"" height=3D199 alt=3D" "=20
src=3D"http://media.economist.com/images/20090523/2109BB2.jpg" =
width=3D300><SPAN=20
class=3Dcaption>Where are we heading this time?</DIV>
Furthermore, governments could do various things to dampen the =
impending rise=20
in prices, argues McKinsey, a consultancy which is also predicting an =
oil-supply=20
crunch in the next few years. One simple measure would be to allow =
trucks to=20
pull longer trailers, thereby increasing fuel efficiency. Rich countries =
could=20
also increase fuel supplies by removing tariffs on imported ethanol, the =
company=20
argues. Persuading developing countries to drop fuel subsidies would =
make a big=20
difference. In the longer run, ever more stringent restrictions on =
carbon=20
emissions and ever higher efficiency standards for vehicles around the =
world=20
will presumably help crimp demand for oil.
At the OPEC powwow Mr al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, argued that a =
low oil=20
price always sowed the seeds of a future price rise, since it led to=20
underinvestment. The only question this time is how quickly the strain =
will=20
emerge. </DIV></BODY></HTML>

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