[Peakoil] Effect on airlines

[Alex P]

Sometimes I wonder if Peak Oil will actually affect aviation that much. 
Since there are some alternatives to cars, such as bikes and public 
transport, petrol consumption for cars could be expected to fall. There are 
fewer substitutes for aviation, except cars and trains for shorter overland 
journeys. So perhaps aviation volumes will actually increase (thought not 
as fast as business-as-usual)? ie aviation will suck up a greater 
proportion of fuel consumption because cars are giving up their piece of 
the pie? If we assume the rich (in world-wide terms) will get richer and 
the rest go backwards, then aviation will boom, and everyone else will use 
less. Is this what Qantas is betting on with their highly debt-leveraged 
expansion?

A similar effect may be happening with the poorest in the world being 
priced out of petrol, according to Kunstler. They are dropping out of the 
bidding and that keeps the price down for us. Even though we can more 
easily economise, they are the ones going without, maybe because they use 
fuel so little fuel per person already (ie very efficiently), that below 
that amount (ie above that price), it's not worth using any at all (eg you 
sell your motorbike and just cycle). Interesting to see if an economist can 
come up with an explanation - economics can be very useful when applied 
intelligently.

The overall effect of the above would be very perverse, and why we need an 
oil depletion treaty.

Alex
O4O4873828

ACT Peak Oil
http://act-peakoil.org


On Tue, 23 Jan 2007 11:57:56 +1100, Antony Barry <tony at tony-
barry.emu.id.au> wrote :

..
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> 
> "Airport growth will sway planners: Morre-Wilton" by john thur
> 
> Airport cities are the driver of economic growth world wide. City  
> planners will need to reconsider their opposition to development  
> close to airports. Reports speech at the Capital Alliance conference.  
> Airports would become the trade hubs as seaports and trai stations  
> had in the past.
> 
> <http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/welcome-to-the-aerotropolis/ 
> 2007/01/19/1169095972128.html>
> 
> Comment: This will be show to be utter nonsense when peak oil occurs.  
> The sector of the economy which is most vulnerable to peak oil is  
> aviation as it is so fuel inefficient. Basing retail outlets at  
> airports where driving distances are further for customers and  
> further driving is required is another no-no after peak oil.
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>