[Peakoil] Fwd: Oil scarcity

[Antony Barry]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Antony Barry <tony at tony-barry.emu.id.au>
> Date: 18 September 2006 9:55:39 AM
> To: Canberra Times Editor <letters.editor at canberratimes.com.au>
> Subject: Oil scarcity
>
> The Editor
> Canberra Times
>
> Tuesday's Canberra Times reports the chairman of ExxonMobil  
> Australia, Mark Nolan, criticising the idea that crude oil  
> production is near its peak saying that the world had abundant oil.
>
> He relies on the reserve figures provided by the US Geological  
> Survey. The USGS like the International Energy Agency gets their  
> reserve figures from governments. A large fraction of the world's  
> oil is in OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)  
> countries. OPEC is a cartel of government owned oil companies.  
> Details of their oil fields they keep under wraps.
>
> The problem cartels have is how to share up the loot. Early in the  
> 1980s OPEC decided to share their production on the basis of their  
> reserves. Magically, one by one, over the next couple of years they  
> all doubled their reserves without extra exploration. Further magic  
> followed. Over the next 20 years despite producing much of the  
> world's oil the reserves stayed the same. Only Kuwait has recently  
> broken ranks and halved it's reserve figures.
>
> It would seem that OPEC reserve figures are set by politicians and  
> not geologists. The figures cannot be trusted. Many crusty old  
> petroleum geologists who have left oil companies and are now able  
> to comment seem to agree. It is these geologists who are saying  
> that we are near the world peak in oil production and that the peak  
> will be in the next 10 years.
>
> Who are we to believe? Statements by OPEC governments who have an  
> interest in inflating their reserve figures or those who have  
> independent technical expertise - geologists?
>
>
> Antony Barry  http://tony-barry.emu.id.au
>
> | 21 Aroona Crt |  Phone: 02 6241 7659 Mobile: 04 1242 0397
> |   Ngunnawal   |  Email: me at tony-barry.emu.id.au
> |   ACT 2913    |       : tony.barry at alianet.alia.org.au
>
>

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