[Peakoil] DiscussionPapersand Community Consultation

Fri Mar 31 15:17:58 EST 2006

Hi Leigh

You wrote:
>We're going to need some very solid factual evidence on why we don't
think there's 40 years worth left if we're going to be able to convince
people.

As I guess you know, in a sense, no evidence can be 'factual' because
(1) reserves figures are estimates, and (2) state reserves are often
state secrets.

One of the best summaries of a contrary view is the appendix of one of
the ASPO submissions to the Senate Inquiry:

http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/rrat_ctte/oil_supply/submissions/
sub132.pdf

Key points we can make are:

1) Peak timing and post-peak depletion rate are more important

2) Explain the OPEC 'spurious reserves additions in the mid-80s' issue

3) The USGS 2000 survey (and all that has flowed from it including IEA
estimates) firstly accepts the dodgy OPEC numbers, and secondly uses
incredibly dodgy stats theory in its projections (see the ASPO .pdf)

Another 'classic' paper (that the ASPO submission also links to) is the
Zittel/Schindler piece:

http://www.energybulletin.net/2544.html

Sandy Pollard

-----Original Message-----
From: leigh.kite at medicareaustralia.gov.au
[mailto:leigh.kite at medicareaustralia.gov.au] 
Sent: Friday, March 31, 2006 1:07 PM
To: POLLARD,Sandy
Cc: peakoil at act-peakoil.org;
peakoil-bounces+leigh.kite=hic.gov.au at act-peakoil.org
Subject: RE: [Peakoil] ACT Energy Policy and Climate Change
DiscussionPapersand Community Consultation

This "40 years according to known reserves" stat is obviously going to
be the juggernaut of antidepletionists/people in general.

Is that the global context based on what places like Kuwait and the
Saudi's say?

We're going to need some very solid factual evidence on why we don't
think there's 40 years worth left if we're going to be able to convince
people.

Cheers,

Leigh

             "POLLARD,Sandy"

             <Sandy.POLLARD at de

             wr.gov.au>
To 
             Sent by:                  <peakoil at act-peakoil.org>

             peakoil-bounces+l
cc 
             eigh.kite=hic.gov

             .au at act-peakoil.o
Subject 
             rg                        RE: [Peakoil] ACT Energy Policy
and 
                                       Climate Change

                                       DiscussionPapersand Community

             31/03/2006 11:44          Consultation

             AM

Sorry Adrian - didn't get to the bottom of your comments. I see you also
found the '40 years' reference.

Sandy Pollard

-----Original Message-----
From: peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org
[mailto:peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org] On
Behalf Of POLLARD,Sandy
Sent: Friday, March 31, 2006 11:39 AM
To: peakoil at act-peakoil.org
Subject: RE: [Peakoil] ACT Energy Policy and Climate Change
DiscussionPapersand Community Consultation

I tried to get to the Civic session, but missed it due to other
commitments.

One thing I noted in their discussion paper: while they do say:

"The Government does not believe that the ACT's continued use and growth
in demand for fossil-fuel energy is either economically or
environmentally sustainable. Fossil fuel reserves are not infinite and
their use emits greenhouse gases" (page 18)...

...they have a footnote (22) on the same page that estimates "life
expectancy" of Oil at 40.6 years from 2002, calculated by dividing
'present rate of consumption' into 'known reserves'. This is the same
misleading approach adopted in the Comm govt's energy white paper.

This should be challenged (for obvious reasons) as being a statistic
providing false comfort, as should the numbers given for other energy
sources (in the context of them being pressed into service for transport
fuel replacement).

Sandy Pollard

-----Original Message-----
From: peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org
[mailto:peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org] On
Behalf Of Adrian Whitehead
Sent: Friday, March 31, 2006 10:45 AM
To: peakoil at act-peakoil.org
Subject: [Peakoil] ACT Energy Policy and Climate Change Discussion
Papersand Community Consultation

Hi All,

ACT Energy Policy and Climate Change Discussion Papers and Community
consultation is now under way.

In my original email I overemphasised the climate change side of the
process and would like to point out energy is just as important part of
it and hence directly relevant to people interested in Peak Oil.

It would be great if some people from this discussion list went along
and put in their two bobs worth at the public meetings.

As mike pointed out only 3 went to Gungahlin and only 10-13 went to the
Civic, so a couple of people from peak oil at the next three events
would have significant impact.

The Oil peak groups should also do a submission on the energy paper -
perhaps we can do a wiki version again. Submission is due on the 26th of
April.

Energy Document Available from...

http://www.sustainability.act.gov.au/energy/ACT_energy.html

Remaining dates...

Monday, 3 April
  6:00pm - 8:00pm
  Conference Room
  Quality Hotel
  Woden

Friday, 7 April
  2:00pm - 4:00pm
  Meeting Room 2
  Belconnen Community Centre
  Belconnen

Wednesday 12 April
   6:00pm - 8:00pm
   Tuggeranong Bowls Club
   Tuggeranong

Some points from the energy document

Challenge - an Energy policy that will ensure the availability of clean,
reliable and competitively price priced energy that meets the real [what
a loaded word] needs of Canberrans in the short and long term.

Drivers - Reliability [one of four] "ensuring that we have an
understanding of changes in energy availability and trends in energy use
and have policies in place to ensure ongoing supply"

The bit on oil peak -
Oil production and petrol refining in Australia has declined markedly
over recent years. As early as 2001 Australia was already importing 61%
of its net domestic needs, primarily through the Singapore market and
this dependence is growing. The relatively minor impact of Hurricane
Katrina in late 2005 on Australia's oil supplies was reflected in
steeply increased prices. This will become a familiar scenario in
future.

According to papers presented to the Geological Society of America,
Australian domestic oil production will peak this year with USA, South
America, Europe and the former Soviet Union having already passed their
peak production capacity. Geoscience Australia has estimated that
Australian crude oil production will decline to half of 2003 levels by
2020. We are increasingly dependent upon Asia and the Middle East to
meet our liquid fuel demands. Internationally, increased competition for
these dwindling resources will reflect in shortages and higher prices.
Price rises can be expected for all commodities and products derived
from oil (plastics), transport and foods that require mechanised farming
and production.

It is increasingly clear that an alternative to fossil fuel derivatives
is required if transport and mechanisation of the type, scale and
convenience to which Australians have become accustomed is to be
maintained. The solution may lay in more efficient vehicles or
better-designed cities or a conscious decision by all of us to review
and downsize our personal transport needs. The Policy will need to
address how Canberrans can influence this mix of solutions and what
impact their selection may have on our city and lifestyle.

Another bit on oil peak referring to the Cwlths Securing Australia's
Energy Future -

Similarly, petrol issues received only passing mention, including a
comment on page 119 that despite increasing demand for oil, there are
sufficient reserves to supply world demand for around 40 years. If this
is our national deadline for establishing a viable and effective
substitute for fossil based liquid fuels action needs to be taken now.

Adrian Whitehead
Water & Climate Campaigner
Conservation Council of the SE Region and Canberra
P: 6247 7808
F: 6248 5343
M: 0403 735 118

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