[Peakoil] ACT Energy Policy and ClimateChange DiscussionPapersand Community Consultation

Fri Mar 31 15:08:28 EST 2006

I ran with a few arguments at Thursdays meeting

1. I said we were 100% exposed to oil price rises in ACT with no electrified
transport (ignoring cycling and walking) and argued for light rail.

2. I stated that oil peak has predicted to have occurred any time from two
years ago to in 30 years time and that even if we took the most optimistic
view it has taken over tens year of campaigning for light to fail to get any
yet. At this point an audience member pointed out that she remembers the
campaign starting in 1986. I this rate I pointed out we still might have any
in 2040.

3. I raise the issue that fuel prices would go up due to increasing demand
regardless of reacting oil peak or not.

I think more arguments could be made on the necessity to preparing for oil
peak, its impacts, different types of rail such as high speed commuter or
medium speed freight etc etc

and as Leigh said good arguments on the credibility of a depletionist
argument would be important.

Also I was looking at the airpowered cars could we get the ACT government to
purchase these vehicle and 5 filling stations (1 for each town centre) which
could be used by the public as well.

http://www.theaircar.com/ 

-----Original Message-----
From: peakoil-bounces+adrian=ecoaction.net.au at act-peakoil.org
[mailto:peakoil-bounces+adrian=ecoaction.net.au at act-peakoil.org] On Behalf
Of leigh.kite at medicareaustralia.gov.au
Sent: Friday, 31 March 2006 1:07 PM
To: POLLARD,Sandy
Cc: peakoil at act-peakoil.org;
peakoil-bounces+leigh.kite=hic.gov.au at act-peakoil.org
Subject: RE: [Peakoil] ACT Energy Policy and ClimateChange
DiscussionPapersand Community Consultation

This "40 years according to known reserves" stat is obviously going to be
the juggernaut of antidepletionists/people in general.

Is that the global context based on what places like Kuwait and the Saudi's
say?

We're going to need some very solid factual evidence on why we don't think
there's 40 years worth left if we're going to be able to convince people.

Cheers,

Leigh

             "POLLARD,Sandy"                                               
             <Sandy.POLLARD at de                                             
             wr.gov.au>                                                 To 
             Sent by:                  <peakoil at act-peakoil.org>           
             peakoil-bounces+l                                          cc 
             eigh.kite=hic.gov                                             
             .au at act-peakoil.o                                     Subject 
             rg                        RE: [Peakoil] ACT Energy Policy and 
                                       Climate Change                      
                                       DiscussionPapersand Community       
             31/03/2006 11:44          Consultation                        
             AM                                                            

Sorry Adrian - didn't get to the bottom of your comments. I see you also
found the '40 years' reference.

Sandy Pollard

-----Original Message-----
From: peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org
[mailto:peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org] On Behalf
Of POLLARD,Sandy
Sent: Friday, March 31, 2006 11:39 AM
To: peakoil at act-peakoil.org
Subject: RE: [Peakoil] ACT Energy Policy and Climate Change
DiscussionPapersand Community Consultation

I tried to get to the Civic session, but missed it due to other commitments.

One thing I noted in their discussion paper: while they do say:

"The Government does not believe that the ACT's continued use and growth in
demand for fossil-fuel energy is either economically or environmentally
sustainable. Fossil fuel reserves are not infinite and their use emits
greenhouse gases" (page 18)...

...they have a footnote (22) on the same page that estimates "life
expectancy" of Oil at 40.6 years from 2002, calculated by dividing 'present
rate of consumption' into 'known reserves'. This is the same misleading
approach adopted in the Comm govt's energy white paper.

This should be challenged (for obvious reasons) as being a statistic
providing false comfort, as should the numbers given for other energy
sources (in the context of them being pressed into service for transport
fuel replacement).

Sandy Pollard

-----Original Message-----
From: peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org
[mailto:peakoil-bounces+sandy.pollard=dewr.gov.au at act-peakoil.org] On Behalf
Of Adrian Whitehead
Sent: Friday, March 31, 2006 10:45 AM
To: peakoil at act-peakoil.org
Subject: [Peakoil] ACT Energy Policy and Climate Change Discussion Papersand
Community Consultation

Hi All,

ACT Energy Policy and Climate Change Discussion Papers and Community
consultation is now under way.

In my original email I overemphasised the climate change side of the process
and would like to point out energy is just as important part of it and hence
directly relevant to people interested in Peak Oil.

It would be great if some people from this discussion list went along and
put in their two bobs worth at the public meetings.

As mike pointed out only 3 went to Gungahlin and only 10-13 went to the
Civic, so a couple of people from peak oil at the next three events would
have significant impact.

The Oil peak groups should also do a submission on the energy paper -
perhaps we can do a wiki version again. Submission is due on the 26th of
April.

Energy Document Available from...

http://www.sustainability.act.gov.au/energy/ACT_energy.html

Remaining dates...

Monday, 3 April
  6:00pm - 8:00pm
  Conference Room
  Quality Hotel
  Woden

Friday, 7 April
  2:00pm - 4:00pm
  Meeting Room 2
  Belconnen Community Centre
  Belconnen

Wednesday 12 April
   6:00pm - 8:00pm
   Tuggeranong Bowls Club
   Tuggeranong

Some points from the energy document

Challenge - an Energy policy that will ensure the availability of clean,
reliable and competitively price priced energy that meets the real [what a
loaded word] needs of Canberrans in the short and long term.

Drivers - Reliability [one of four] "ensuring that we have an understanding
of changes in energy availability and trends in energy use and have policies
in place to ensure ongoing supply"

The bit on oil peak -
Oil production and petrol refining in Australia has declined markedly over
recent years. As early as 2001 Australia was already importing 61% of its
net domestic needs, primarily through the Singapore market and this
dependence is growing. The relatively minor impact of Hurricane Katrina in
late 2005 on Australia's oil supplies was reflected in steeply increased
prices. This will become a familiar scenario in future.

According to papers presented to the Geological Society of America,
Australian domestic oil production will peak this year with USA, South
America, Europe and the former Soviet Union having already passed their peak
production capacity. Geoscience Australia has estimated that Australian
crude oil production will decline to half of 2003 levels by 2020. We are
increasingly dependent upon Asia and the Middle East to meet our liquid fuel
demands. Internationally, increased competition for these dwindling
resources will reflect in shortages and higher prices.
Price rises can be expected for all commodities and products derived from
oil (plastics), transport and foods that require mechanised farming and
production.

It is increasingly clear that an alternative to fossil fuel derivatives is
required if transport and mechanisation of the type, scale and convenience
to which Australians have become accustomed is to be maintained. The
solution may lay in more efficient vehicles or better-designed cities or a
conscious decision by all of us to review and downsize our personal
transport needs. The Policy will need to address how Canberrans can
influence this mix of solutions and what impact their selection may have on
our city and lifestyle.

Another bit on oil peak referring to the Cwlths Securing Australia's Energy
Future -

Similarly, petrol issues received only passing mention, including a comment
on page 119 that despite increasing demand for oil, there are sufficient
reserves to supply world demand for around 40 years. If this is our national
deadline for establishing a viable and effective substitute for fossil based
liquid fuels action needs to be taken now.

Adrian Whitehead
Water & Climate Campaigner
Conservation Council of the SE Region and Canberra
P: 6247 7808
F: 6248 5343
M: 0403 735 118

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